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Survival analysis to determine the factors affecting the optimum timing of chip seal application

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Abstract

This paper summarizes the results of a comprehensive analysis that was conducted to determine the service life of chip seal treatments and evaluate different factors affecting the lifetime. The considered factors included: The existing condition of the pavement, climate, traffic volume (KESAL), and structural number of the pavement section were also investigated. To achieve this, a total of 253 sections of chip seal projects were collected from long-term pavement program (LTPP) database. Kaplan–Meier survival function model was employed to compare the survival probabilities of chip seal treatments based on the considered performance indicators. In addition, the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to capture the factors significantly influencing the service life of chip seal treatments. Finally, a hazard risk analysis was conducted on series of models in order to identify the optimum timing of chip seal application. The results of the study indicated that the survival probability of chip seal was worst for transverse crack followed by longitudinal crack, rutting, IRI, and alligator cracking. The pretreatment condition was found to be the most influential factor affecting the survival life in terms of all distresses. Climatic factors such as temperature, freeze–thaw along with structural capacity of the pavement were also found to be affecting the survival life. The hazed risk analysis based on Cox model yielded threshold value for each performance indicator, which can be used as the optimum timing for the chip seal application.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil &Architectural Engineering & Construction Management, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, US

    Sk Abu Talha, Munir D. Nazzal & Dmitry Manasreh

  2. Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, US

    Md Tareq Ferdous Khan

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  1. Sk Abu Talha
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  2. Munir D. Nazzal
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  3. Dmitry Manasreh
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  4. Md Tareq Ferdous Khan
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Correspondence to Sk Abu Talha.

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Talha, S.A., Nazzal, M.D., Manasreh, D. et al. Survival analysis to determine the factors affecting the optimum timing of chip seal application. Innov. Infrastruct. Solut. 7, 350 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-022-00949-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-022-00949-y

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