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Developing a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model for risk assessment: a case of Addis-Djibouti railway construction project

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Abstract

Effective risk assessment is critical to the success of construction projects. This study developed a risk assessment model to analyze the effect of project risks on delays and cost overruns in Addis-Djibouti railway construction project. The project risks were identified, and structured questionnaires were distributed to respondents to rate the likelihood and impact of risks. A modified fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach was employed to evaluate the impact of the risks on project objectives. The results of the study showed that design changes, right-of-way, construction errors, incomplete contract details, poor site management, and lack of coordination were the significant factors that have the greatest impact on project delays and cost overruns. The proposed risk assessment model is reliable and practical for railway construction projects that can handle uncertainty, vagueness of expert opinions, limited data, multiple attributes, and levels of risks, and helps managers to understand the significant factors and assess their impact on project objectives. Future research should further analyze risks by examining the combined effects of dependency and the dynamic effects of risks on railway construction projects.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Railway Center of Excellence, Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Tesfaye Gashaw

  2. School of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Kassu Jilcha

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  1. Tesfaye Gashaw
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Correspondence to Tesfaye Gashaw.

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Gashaw, T., Jilcha, K. Developing a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model for risk assessment: a case of Addis-Djibouti railway construction project. Innov. Infrastruct. Solut. 7, 154 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-022-00753-8

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