Abstract
This study estimated the runoff potential of Manchar Lake (Pakistan) as having enormous economic, environmental, and strategic value. In the recent floods, the lake overflowed, inundating surrounding villages. Had the timings and quantum of the expected flows known, the government could have minimized the damages by diverting the water to the sea. A hydrologic model can provide such information, but Manchar is ungauged, and model calibration/validation is challenging without observed data. An upstream Gaj basin had daily stream flow records only for four months. However, these data were insufficient in an ideal condition and were the only model calibration/validation option. For runoff simulation, Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was used. Land use/cover (Sentinel-2), soils (Food and Agriculture Organization), Digital Elevation Model (Advanced Land Observing Satellite), and hydro-meteorological information were model inputs. The Gaj basin model simulated well with coefficients of determination (R2 = 0.92/96), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.82/0.85), root mean square error (RMSE = 159.4/98.9 ft3/s), RMSE-observation standard deviation ratio (RSR = 0.42/0.39), and percent bias (PBIAS = 8.01/31.75%) during calibration/validation periods. The calibrated parameters were then applied to the entire watershed using the regionalization concept of spatial proximity. The simulated runoff (mean annual volume) entering the lake from 2004 to 2020 was 1.662 ± 0.871 MAF per year and during the 2022 floods (June–September) was 4.28 MAF. This approach is helpful in water and land resource planning and managing ungauged catchments during dry periods and will significantly reduce flood damages through early warnings and timely flood management.
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The datasets analyzed/generated for the current research are available in the manuscript.
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Acknowledgements
The US–Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water (USPCAS-W), Mehran University of Engineering and Technology (MUET) Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan, is acknowledged for providing laboratory facilities (licensed software) for conducting this study. Dr. Rick Bereit, the English Writing Centre instructor at the United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, CO, USA, contributed editing and language verification while preparing the final version of this article.
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This research was funded by USPCAS-W, supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
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UI contributed to conceptualization, methodology, GIS and HEC-HMS modeling, and writing—original draft. AU helped in writing and supervision. AZ contributed to writing and supervision. RBM helped in supervision. WAK contributed to writing, GIS and HEC-HMS modeling. BN contributed to GIS and remote sensing.
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Imran, U., Zaidi, A.Z., Ullah, A. et al. Surface runoff water potential in the ungauged multi-basin Manchar Lake of Pakistan. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 9, 180 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-023-00959-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-023-00959-3