Abstract
Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was employed to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Sindh basin. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the years 2011–2016. Daily discharge of the river was predicted under four possible climate change scenarios, Scenario I (T + 2 °C and P + 10%), Scenario II (T + 1.5 °C, P-10%), Scenario III (T + 2 °C, P + 10%) and Scenario IV (T + 1.5 °C, P-10%). Snow covered area (SCA) was calculated from an 8-day composite Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data product (MOD10A2). The SCA reduced from approximately 90% in January to around 20% in September. The model predicted an increase of 59% in daily runoff during the late Spring and early summer season under scenario III, 45% under Scenario I, 29% under Scenario IV, and 17% under scenario II climatic conditions. The model performance was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of determination (R2). The model accuracy was satisfactory as the estimated and observed discharge matched precisely with an overall Dv of − 4.9% and the R2 remained above 0.9 for the simulation period. The peak discharge month shifted from August in 2010 to May in the simulated scenarios. A significant decrease has been observed in the river discharge in Autumn under the various climate change scenarios. The results of the study point toward an increase in the frequency and magnitude of the floods in peak snowmelt season while drought-like conditions would occur in the lean season.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the Irrigation and Flood control Department, Kashmir Division and IMD, Pune for providing the hydro-metrological data.
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The research was funded by Ministry of Minority Affairs, Government of India, in the form of MANF-JRF scheme to the first author.
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MSB conceived and supervised the research idea. HAS carried out the analysis. SA wrote first draft. AA edited the manuscript. BS contributed in designing the artwork. All authors contributed and agreed to the final manuscript.
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Sheikh, H.A., Bhat, M.S., Alam, A. et al. Modeling runoff responses to 1.5 °C and 2 °C rise in temperature in snow-fed basin of western Himalayas. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 9, 127 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-023-00910-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-023-00910-6