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Effects of extreme atmospheric precipitation on the stability of railways in the permafrost zone

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Abstract

According to long-term observations of the roadbed condition of one of the railway sections operated in the Russian permafrost zone, short-term heavy rains in 2022 caused significant changes in geocryological conditions in the area of construction. As a result of this abnormal weather phenomenon, the depth of seasonal thawing of frozen soils increased by 11%, along with an increased average annual temperature by 0.5–1.0 °C, as compared with previous years of normal precipitation. Between 2017 and 2021, a subsidence of the roadbed at a rate of 2–4 cm/year was recorded on the studied object. In terms of deformation intensity, the trackbed was relatively stable, characterized by the defective but completely operational state of the track. However, due to extreme precipitation occurring in in 2022, the trackbed deformation increased twofold to 7–9 cm/yr. Since the extremes of the precipitation regime and their annual amounts on the territory of Russia tend to increase, the number of exogenous processes dangerous to the railway infrastructure will only increase over time. According to the forecast based on thermotechnical calculations, which assumes extreme summer precipitation occurring with a frequency of once per 2 years and a continuing + 0.5 °C/10-year trend of variations in the atmospheric air temperature, the seasonal thawing depth of the permafrost soil in the studied railway section is expected to exceed 2.0 m by 2040. To date, the instrumentally recorded depth of thawing within the railway structure averages 0.65 m.

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Data Availability

Data available on request from the authors.

Notes

  1. The Tynda permafrost station comprises a structural subdivision of Russian Railroads JSC, providing scientific-technical and practical support during the construction and maintenance of railroads on permafrost soils since 1975.

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Funding

This research was funded by Heilongjiang Transportation Investment Group Co., Ltd (JT-100000-ZC-FW-2021-0129), Key Research and Development Program guidance project of Heilongjiang province (GZ20220095, GZ20220052).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Science, Yakutsk, Russia, 677010

    Andrey Melnikov & Leonid Gagarin

  2. Technical Institute (Branch) of North-Eastern Federal University Named, Neryungri, Russia, 678960

    Andrey Melnikov

  3. School of Civil Engineering/Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering/Permafrost Institute/Northeast-China Observatory and Research-Station of Permafrost Geo-Environment of the Ministry of Education, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, 150040, People’s Republic of China

    Ze Zhang

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  1. Andrey Melnikov
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  2. Ze Zhang
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  3. Leonid Gagarin
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Contributions

Conceptualization—AM and LG; Methodology—AM, LG and ZZ; Investigation—AM and LG; Writing (original draft preparation)—AM and LG; Writing (review and editing)—AM, LG and ZZ; Funding acquisition—ZZ. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Andrey Melnikov.

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Melnikov, A., Zhang, Z. & Gagarin, L. Effects of extreme atmospheric precipitation on the stability of railways in the permafrost zone. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 10, 1305–1320 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01847-7

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