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Modeling climate change impact on distribution and abundance of Balanites aegyptiaca in drylands of Ethiopia

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Abstract

In Ethiopia, climate change affects sustainability of several indigenous tree species. However, information on the impacts of climate change on the distribution and abundance of Balanites aegyptiaca is scant. An understanding of such effects is, therefore, critical to design alternative solutions. Hence, this study was conducted in Tigray, northern Ethiopia to determine the potential distribution of B. aegyptiaca. To address these objectives, 220 occurrence localities, 19 bioclimatic variables, three topographic features and soil data were used to model the impacts of climate change on the species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distribution of the species. Number of B. aegyptiaca within 50 m × 50 m from each location points was collected to analyze the relationship between its abundance and environmental variables. Results showed that temperature seasonality, mean diurnal range and temperature annual range were found most important variables for the distribution of the species together contributed 78.2% to the model. The current distribution of the species is 2213 km2 (3%) while distribution showed increase to 3651 km2 (6%) by 2070 under RCP4.5 scenario and to zero in mid- and end-century under RCP8.5. Results from spearman’s correlation further showed abundance of B. aegyptiaca had strong correlation with temperature, rainfall, altitude, slope, bulk density, organic matter and percent of silt. In conclusion, climate change especially under RCP8.5 adversely affects the future suitable habitats that may lead the species to totally extinct locally. Hence, multi-stakeholder collaborations on the design and immediate conservation actions are essential.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute, Mekelle Centre, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Yirga Gufi & Berihu Tesfamariam

  2. Tigray Institute of Policy Studies, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Ashenafi Manaye

  3. Institutes of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Haftu Abrha

  4. University Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

    Haftu Abrha

  5. Department of Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Adigrat University, Adigrat, Ethiopia

    Tesfay Gidey

  6. Department of Rural Development & Agricultural Extension, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Kebede Manjur Gebru

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  1. Yirga Gufi
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  2. Ashenafi Manaye
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Gufi, Y., Manaye, A., Tesfamariam, B. et al. Modeling climate change impact on distribution and abundance of Balanites aegyptiaca in drylands of Ethiopia. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 3415–3427 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01666-2

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