Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of hydro-meteorological regimes of gidabo river basin under representative concentration pathway scenarios

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change is a clear fact today, and its impact is seriously disrupting regional hydrometeorology. In this study, four dynamical downscaled regional climate model output variables with 0.44° spatial resolution were used to assess climate change's impact on hydrometeorology of the Gidabo river basin. Based on the climate model performance evaluation result RACMO2.2T model performed best in the basin and the outputs from this model were used as input data for the successfully validated HBV model to assess climate change impacts. The Mann Kendell trend test result shows an increasing trend in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and potential evapotranspiration but the test result does not show any trend in precipitation. The climate projection result shows streamflow will decrease in the mid-future due to a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase of potential evapotranspiration in the basin. The drop-in stream flow can be up to 19.6% and 6.7%, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. This drop-in streamflow will have an impact on the river basin's prospective water resource availability. Therefore, it is recommended that adequate water-related adaptation strategies and choices must be planned and implemented throughout the river basin in the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Climatic model data used in this research study were freely available at http://cera-www.dkrz.de/ and other data sets were provided upon request for research purposes.

References

  • Abebe E, Kebede A (2017) Assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Megech River Catchment, Abbay Basin Ethiopia. Open J Mod Hydrol 7:141–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Abraham T, Abate B, Woldemicheal A, Muluneh A (2018) Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the hydrology of lake ziway catchment, central rift valley of Ethiopia. J Environ Earth Sci 8(7)

  • Ademe D, Ziatchik BF, Tesfaye K, Simane B, Alemayehu G, Adgo E (2020) Climate trends and variability at adaptation scale: patterns and perceptions in an agricultural region of the Ethiopian Highlands. Weather Clim Extremes 29:100263

    Google Scholar 

  • Alehu BA, Desta HB, Daba BI (2021) Assessment of climate change impact on hydro-climatic variables and its trends over Gidabo Watershed. Model Earth Syst Environ 1–23

  • Alemseged TH, Tom R (2015) Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of rainfall over the Upper Blue Nile basin. Atmos Res 161:57–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashenafi AA (2014) Modeling hydrological responses to changes in land cover and climate in Geba River Basin, Northern Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation)

  • Bekele AA, Pingale SM, Hatiye SD, Tilahun AK (2019) Impact of climate change on surface water availability and crop water demand for the sub-watershed of Abbay Basin, Ethiopia. Sustain Water Resourc Manag 5(4):1859–1875

    Google Scholar 

  • Belihu M, Abate B, Tekleab S, Bewket W (2018) Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia. Phys Chem Earth Parts a/b/c 104:84–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CA, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylhä K, Koffi B, Palutikof J (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Change 81(1):71–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M, Stoffel M, Hill M (2011) Impacts of climatic change on water and natural hazards in the Alps: can current water governance cope with future challenges? Examples from the European “ACQWA” project. Environ Sci Policy 14(7):734–743

    Google Scholar 

  • Blázquez J, Silvina AS (2020) Multiscale precipitation variability and extremes over South America: analysis of future changes from a set of CORDEX regional climate model simulations. Clim Dyn 55(7):2089–2106

    Google Scholar 

  • Blöschl G, Montanari A (2010) Climate change impacts—throwing the dice? Hydrol Process 24(3):374–381. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coppola E, Raffaele F, Giorgi F, Giuliani G, Xuejie G, Ciarlo JM, Rechid D (2021) Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble. Clim Dyn 57(5):1293–1383

    Google Scholar 

  • Coulibaly N, Coulibaly TJH, Mpakama Z, Savané I (2018) The impact of climate change on water resource availability in a transboundary basin in West Africa: the case of Sassandra. Hydrology 5(1):12

    Google Scholar 

  • Daba MH, You S (2020) Assessment of climate change impacts on river flow regimes in the upstream of Awash Basin, Ethiopia: based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) climate change scenarios. Hydrology 7(4):98

    Google Scholar 

  • Demissie TA, Sime CH (2021) Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia. Heliyon 7(8):e07791

    Google Scholar 

  • Dibaba WT, Miegel K, Demissie TA (2019) Evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models performance in simulating climate conditions of two catchments in Upper Blue Nile Basin. Dyn Atmos Oceans 87:101104

    Google Scholar 

  • Dosio A, Panitz HJ (2016) Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models. Clim Dyn 46(5):1599–1625

    Google Scholar 

  • Dosio A, Panitz HJ, Schubert-Frisius M, Lüthi D (2015) Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value. Clim Dyn 44(9):2637–2661

    Google Scholar 

  • Elias G (2017) Impact of climate change on Lake Chamo water balance, Ethiopia. Int J Water Resourc Environ Eng 9(4):86–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Emiru NC, Recha JW, Thompson JR, Belay A, Aynekulu E, Manyevere A, Solomon D (2021) Impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin. Ethiopia Hydrol 9(1):3

    Google Scholar 

  • Endris HS, Omondi P, Jain S, Lennard C, Hewitson B, Chang’a L, Awange JL, Dosio A, Ketiem P, Nikulin G, Panitz HJ (2013) Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating East African rainfall. J Clim 26(21):8453–8475. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fekadu K (2015) Ethiopian seasonal rainfall variability and prediction using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Earth Sci 4(3):112–119. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC, Collins WJ, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In: climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Clim Change 5:741–866

  • Fotso-Nguemo TC, Diallo I, Diakhaté M, Vondou DA, Mbaye ML, Haensler A, Tchawoua C (2019) Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa. Clim Change 155(3):339–357

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadissa T, Nyadawa M, Mutua BM, Behulu F (2019) Comparative assessment of the effect of climate change and human activities on streamflow regimes in Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

  • Gebre SL, Tadele K, Mariam BG (2015) Potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources availability of Didessa Catchment, Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. J Geol Geosci 4:193

    Google Scholar 

  • Getahun YS, Li MH, Chen PY (2020) Assessing impact of climate change on hydrology of Melka Kuntrie Subbasin, Ethiopia with Ar4 and Ar5 projections. Water 12(5):1308

    Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. World Meteorol Organ (WMO) Bull 58(3):175.

  • Gissila T, Black E, Grimes DIF, Slingo JM (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. Int J Climatol 24(11):1345–1358. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1078

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goshime DW, Haile AT, Rientjes T, Absi R, Ledésert B, Siegfried T (2021) Implications of water abstraction on the interconnected Central Rift Valley Lakes sub-basin of Ethiopia using WEAP. J Hydrol Regional Stud 38:100969

    Google Scholar 

  • Haile AT, Akawka AL, Berhanu B, Rientjes T (2017) Changes in water availability in the Upper Blue Nile basin under the representative concentration pathways scenario. Hydrol Sci J 62(13):2139–2149

    Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1(2):96–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Heinzeller D, Dieng D, Smiatek G, Olusegun C, Klein C, Hamann I, Salack S et al (2018) The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment. Earth Syst Sci Data 10(2):815–835

    Google Scholar 

  • Her Y, Yoo SH, Seong C, Jeong J, Cho J, Hwang S (2016) Comparison of uncertainty in multi-parameter and multi-model ensemble hydrologic analysis of climate change. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. Manuscript under review for journal Hydrol. Earth Syst Sci

  • Hordofa AT, Leta OT, Alamirew T, Chukalla AD (2021) Spatiotemporal trend analysis of temperature and rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin. Ethiopia Hydrol 9(1):2

    Google Scholar 

  • Ingole PV, Nichat MMK (2013) Landmark based shortest path detection by using Dijkestra Algorithm and Haversine Formula. Int J Eng Res Appl (IJERA) 3(3):162–165

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (p. 151).

  • IPCC-TGICA (2007) General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 2. Prepared by T.R. Carter on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment, 66 pp.

  • Kay AL, Davies HN, Bell VA, Jones RG (2009) Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Clim Change 92(1–2):41–63. http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/3097/

  • Koutroulis AG, Tsanis IK, Daliakopoulos IN, Jacob D (2013) Impact of climate change on water resources status: a case study for Crete Island, Greece. J Hydrol 479:146–158

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumilachew YW, Hatiye SD (2022) The dual impact of climate change on irrigation water demand and reservoir performance: a case study of Koga irrigation scheme, Ethiopia. Sustain Water Resourc Manag 8(1):1–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Luhunga PM, Botai JO, Kahimba F (2016) Evaluation of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating present climate conditions of Tanzania. J South Hemisph Earth Syst Sci 66:32–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Mechal A, Birk S, Winkler G, Wagner T, Mogessie A (2016) Characterizing regional groundwater flow in the Ethiopian Rift: a multimodal approach applied to Gidabo River Basin. Aust J Earth Sci 109(1)

  • Min E, Hazeleger W, Van Oldenborgh GJ, Sterl A (2013) Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models. Environ Res Lett 8(1):014011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mostafa H, Saleh H, El Sheikh M, Kheireldin K (2015) Assessing statistical downscaling to quantify the impact of climate changes on rainfall over the Blue Nile Basin. Life Sci J 12(12):86–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—a discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10(3):282–290

    Google Scholar 

  • Negewo TF, Sarma AK (2021) Estimation of water yield under baseline and future climate change scenarios in Genale Watershed, Genale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia, using SWAT model. J Hydrol Eng 26(3):05020051

    Google Scholar 

  • Nigatu ZM, Rientjes T, Haile AT (2016) Hydrological impact assessment of climate change on Lake Tana’s water balance, Ethiopia. Am J Clim Change 5(1):27–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Ogunbode CA, Doran R, Böhm G (2020) Exposure to the IPCC special report on 1.5 C global warming is linked to perceived threat and increased concern about climate change. Clim Change 158(3):361–375

    Google Scholar 

  • Orke YA, Li MH (2021) Hydroclimatic variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia. Climate 9(6):98

    Google Scholar 

  • Orke YA, Li MH (2022) Impact of Climate change on hydrometeorology and droughts in the bilate watershed. Ethiopia Water 14(5):729

    Google Scholar 

  • Orkodjo TP, Kranjac-Berisavijevic G, Abagale FK (2022) Impact of climate change on future precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, and streamflow in the Omo-Gibe basin. Ethiopia Heliyon 8(6):e09711

    Google Scholar 

  • Panitz HJ, Dosio A, Büchner M, Lüthi D, Keuler K (2014) COSMO-CLM (CCLM) climate simulations over CORDEX-Africa domain: analysis of the ERA-Interim driven simulations at 0.44 and 0.22 resolution. Clim Dyn 42(11):3015–3038

    Google Scholar 

  • Rummukainen M (2010) State-of-the-art with regional climate models. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 1(1):82–96. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelsson P, Gollvik S, Kupiainen M, Kourzeneva E, van de Berg WJ (2015) The surface processes of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA4). SMHI.

  • Sanjay J, Krishnan R, Bhakta A (2017) Science Direct Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models. Adv Clim Chang Res 8(3):185–198

    Google Scholar 

  • Seibert J (2005) HBV light version 2. Stockholm University, User’s manual

    Google Scholar 

  • Seibert J, McDonnell JJ (2010) Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty. Hydrol Sci J-J Des Sci Hydrol 55(3):316–332. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626661003683264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seibert J, Vis MJ (2012) Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(9):3315–3325

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389

    Google Scholar 

  • Setegn SG, Rayner D, Melesse AM, Dargahi B, Srinivasan R, Wörman A (2011) Climate change impact on agricultural water resources variability in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. In Nile River Basin (pp. 241–265). Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_12.

  • Shanka AS (2017) Evaluation of climate change impacts on run-off in the Gidabo River Basin: Southern Ethiopia. Environ Pollut Clim Change 1:129. https://doi.org/10.4172/2573-458X.1000129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shongwe ME, Van Oldenborgh GJ, Van Den Hurk BJJM, De Boer B, Coelho CAS, Van Aalst MK (2009) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa. J Clim 22(13):3819–3837. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2317.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smitha PS, Narasimhan B, Sudheer KP, Annamalai H (2018) An improved bias correction method of daily rainfall data using a sliding window technique for climate change impact assessment. J Hydrol 556:100–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Marofi S, Aeini A, Talaee PH, Mohammadi K (2011) Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agric Meteorol 151(2):128–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.09.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taye MT, Dyer E, Hirpa FA, Charles K (2018) Climate change impact on water resources in the Awash basin, Ethiopia. Water 10(11):1560

    Google Scholar 

  • Tekle A (2015) Assessment of climate change impact on water availability of Bilate watershed, Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin. In AFRICON, 2015 (pp. 1–5). IEEE

  • Teutschbein C, Seibert J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods. J Hydrol 456:12–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Umate NB, Bhujade VG (2017) A real-time technique for targeted advertising using location-based services—For GPS enabled device: A review. In 2017 International conference of Electronics, Communication and Aerospace Technology (ICECA) (Vol. 1, pp. 689–693). IEEE

  • Vis M, Knight R, Pool S, Wolfe W, Seibert J (2015) Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics. Water 7:2358–2381

    Google Scholar 

  • Zerga B, Gebeyehu G (2016) Climate change in Ethiopia variability, impact, mitigation, and adaptation. J Soc Sci Hum Res 2(4):66–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Xu CY, Yong B, Hu J, Sun Z (2012) Understanding the changing characteristics of droughts in Sudan and the corresponding components of the hydrologic cycle. J Hydrometeorol 13(5):1520–1535. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0109.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhongming Z, Linong L, Xiaona Y, Wangqiang Z, Wei L (2019) The 2019 WMO State of the Global Climate Report: Key Takeaways from the Worrying Report

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Ethiopian national meteorological agency (NMA) provided daily meteorological data for this study, and the Ethiopian ministry of water, irrigation, and energy (MoWIE) provided daily stream flow data for required gauging stations. We also acknowledge the data support provided by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) which is hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) in Hamburg for providing regional climate model (RCM) data free of charge.

Funding

This study has not received any funding from any organization.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

    Tegegn Takele Mana & Berhanu Wegayehu Abebe

Authors
  1. Tegegn Takele Mana
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Berhanu Wegayehu Abebe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tegegn Takele Mana.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mana, T.T., Abebe, B.W. Assessment of hydro-meteorological regimes of gidabo river basin under representative concentration pathway scenarios. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 473–491 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01516-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01516-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation