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Impact of INSAT-3D satellite-derived wind in 3DVAR and hybrid ensemble-3DVAR data assimilation systems in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

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Abstract

The present study examines the impact of assimilation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) from the INSAT-3D satellite in two different data assimilation (DA) systems using the Weather Research and Forecast model. INSAT-3D is a weather satellite launched by the Indian Space Research Organization and the wind products are derived from imager channels in the payload. Five tropical cyclones (TC) with intensity ranging from very severe cyclonic storm to super cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal is considered. Observing system experiments are conducted in three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) and hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter-3DVAR (HYBRID) DA techniques. The results indicate that the error in the initial position and intensity of TC are lower in HYBRID than in 3DVAR, however, with no substantial improvements due to the assimilation of INSAT-3D AMV. In contrast, the forecast of the track shows positive impact of AMV in both the DA system. The TC landfall position error has reduced due to the assimilation of AMV in HYBRID DA system while the impact of AMV on intensity forecast remains nominal. Further analysis revealed that the assimilation of AMV data has improved the rainfall forecast in both HYBRID and 3DVAR experiments and HYBRID experiments show improved skill scores for precipitation forecast as compared to other experiments, in general.

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Availability of data and material

The NCEP global forecast system analyses and forecasts data that is utilized in this study are openly available in the repository https://rda.ucar.edu at https://doi.org/10.5065/D65Q4TSG. Data assimilation is performed using observations derived from NCEP ADP Global Upper Air and Surface Weather Observations archived in the https://rda.ucar.edu at https://doi.org/10.5065/Z83F-N512 and INSAT-3D satellite derived atmospheric motion vectors from https://www.mosdac.gov.in.

Code availability

The atmospheric model used in this study is Weather Research and Forecast (ARW-WRF) of version 3.8.1, which is openly available for download in https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources.html. The data assimilation package comes from WRFDA system of 3.8.1 version archived in https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources.html#WRFDA.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for its support for WRF modeling and assimilation systems (http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf). We also thank the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for making available the analysis and observation data for conducting the experiments. The authors acknowledge Indian Meteorological Division (IMD) for making available the best track data for validation and the IITM high-performance computing facility used for computing is acknowledged gratefully.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Space Science, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Valiamala, 695547, India

    Govindan Kutty

  2. North Eastern Space Application Center, Umiam, Meghalaya, 793103, India

    Rekha Bharali Gogoi & Arup Borgohain

Authors
  1. Rekha Bharali Gogoi
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  2. Govindan Kutty
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  3. Arup Borgohain
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Contributions

RBG performed the experiments and wrote the manuscript. GK analyzed the results. GK and AB supervised the research work.

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Correspondence to Govindan Kutty.

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Gogoi, R.B., Kutty, G. & Borgohain, A. Impact of INSAT-3D satellite-derived wind in 3DVAR and hybrid ensemble-3DVAR data assimilation systems in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 8, 1813–1823 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01183-8

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