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Assessment of Urban Water Supply Options by Using Fuzzy Possibilistic Theory

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Abstract

A comprehensible framework for assessing water supply risk based on existing and under-construction projects is provided. In the proposed framework, the risk factors of current and future water supply options were first investigated using the Fuzzy Delphi method. Then, according to a survey of experts, the probability of the risk for each water supply option was assessed. Markowitz’s theory was used, in the form of an opportunity from the optimistic to the most pessimistic possible case of the risk pool. The results showed that the framework based on the Fuzzy Delphi and possibility theory is befitting to information gathered from experts. Such a framework can provide a simple method to apply the proposed methodology to other water management projects, where, despite the high level of investment, there is no clear idea of the risks and their consequences.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering and Sciences Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

    Ahmad Ghandehari, Kamran Davary, Maryam Vatanparast & Yavar Pourmohamad

  2. Hydrotech Toos Knowledge-Based Consulting Engineering Office, Mashhad, Iran

    Hamid Omranian Khorasani

Authors
  1. Ahmad Ghandehari
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  2. Kamran Davary
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  3. Hamid Omranian Khorasani
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  4. Maryam Vatanparast
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  5. Yavar Pourmohamad
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Correspondence to Yavar Pourmohamad.

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Appendix

Appendix

Table 11 Challenges and opportunities of water supply options for mashhad plain. Challenges / Opportunities
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Table 12 Indices’ list symbols
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Ghandehari, A., Davary, K., Khorasani, H.O. et al. Assessment of Urban Water Supply Options by Using Fuzzy Possibilistic Theory. Environ. Process. 7, 949–972 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-020-00441-8

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