Abstract
While the effects of unemployment on property crime has been recognized for decades, finding a comprehensive and effective strategy for its control remains a global challenge. A mathematical model of property crime “epidemic” that incorporates the effects of unemployment, in a rather simple setting, is proposed and analysed. The model subdivides the economically active population based on employment and property crime status. The transmission process from being a non-criminal to a criminal is modelled as a socially contagious process. The impacts of unemployment on property crime statistics is investigated through the threshold parameter known as the “basic ” reproductive number. In this paper the reproductive number accounts for the average number of cases generated by a “typical” criminal during his or her life time in a population of unemployed and employed economically active population. After comprehensive analysis of the model it is extended to incorporate multiple optimal intervention strategies aimed at reducing unemployment and property crime. Results here provide a frame work for designing effective time dependent methods aimed at reducing unemployment and property crime statistics.
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Mushayabasa, S. Modeling optimal intervention strategies for property crime. Int. J. Dynam. Control 5, 832–841 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40435-015-0201-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40435-015-0201-2