1 Introduction

Disaster risk conditions arise from the complex interplay between vulnerability and hazards, ultimately resulting in disasters when materialized. Nicaragua is prone to, among others, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding. At the same time, its vulnerability is shaped by social, economic, political, institutional, and cultural factors associated with power dynamics, structural injustices, and inequalities. Environmental degradation, climate change, poverty, political instability, weak governance, and inadequate infrastructure are some of the country’s primary drivers of disaster risk.

Areas affected by poverty, inadequate governance, restricted access to fundamental services and resources, violent conflicts, and a high dependence on climate-related livelihoods are more vulnerable to climate and other hazards. Moreover, worldwide socioeconomic development patterns like migration, escalating inequality, and urbanization exacerbate the likelihood of future exposure to such hazards (IPCC 2022). Understanding disaster risk in Nicaragua requires a detailed analysis of the conditions and dynamics of vulnerability among its population and the hazards present in the region. In recent years, special attention has been given to the impact of cyclones. Several researchers have contributed to regional assessments of hazards linked with historical cyclone databases (for example, Landsea and Franklin 2013; Yap et al. 2014) at regional (Lau et al. 2022) and global scales (Weinkle et al. 2012).

Many areas and communities that face significant development challenges are also highly vulnerable. It has been argued that acute food insecurity and reduced water security will affect millions of people around the globe, with Central America being one of the regions most severely affected (IPCC 2023). However, to understand and reduce disaster risk and prevent disasters, it is imperative to recognize the increasing number of individuals exposed to hazards and living in varying conditions of vulnerability generated by society. These factors determine the extent of disasters.

In Central America, since 1980, the most significant frequency of disasters has been associated with hydrometeorological events, and their social impacts have increased. Historically, Nicaragua has been affected by disasters of diverse origins. For instance, between 1992 and 2013, 1398 disaster events were triggered by various hazards, resulting in devastating consequences. According to the DesInventar database (n.d.), these disasters led to the loss of 2869 human lives, 4046 injuries, 1150 missing persons, and the destruction of 18,052 homes, with an additional 38,565 homes being damaged. The total losses were estimated to be USD 335 million, and 915,648 ha of crops were damaged. Among the disasters, 467 were related to floods, causing 401 fatalities, 597 injuries, 1089 missing persons, 6247 destroyed homes, 30,879 damaged homes, 474,761 hectares of damaged crops, and losses of USD 1.5 million.

Nicaragua was hit by 22 tropical cyclones (TC) between 1971 and 2020, causing catastrophic damage. These included 17 hurricanes and four tropical storms (Velásquez and Alcántara-Ayala 2023). The negative impact of these disasters on vulnerable communities is undeniable, but the root cause lies in the processes of social construction. These involve the multidimensions of vulnerability of at-risk people derived from the country’s socioeconomic and political characteristics and dynamics at various scales. A multitude of factors, including decisions regarding resource use, economic and biogeographical conditions, infrastructure availability, institutional efficiency levels, historical political development, governance structure and organization, among others, all contribute to the creation of disaster risk (Oliver-Smith et al. 2016; Alcántara-Ayala, Burton, et al. 2023).

From a hazard perspective, it is estimated that the Atlantic experienced approximately 298 TC between 1851 and 1890, increasing to 388 between 1951 and 1990. Data from the nineteenth century may not be entirely accurate due to limitations in communication systems, remote populations, and a scarcity of observation resources like satellites and planes (Fernández-Partagás and Diaz 1996).

Likewise, hurricane activity was notable in the North Atlantic region from 1995 to 2000. This spike in global hurricane activity was predominantly concentrated in the Caribbean area, and experts anticipate that it will persist for 10 to 40 years (Goldenberg et al. 2001). The escalation in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity is likely attributed to alterations in sea surface temperature and physical variables within the Vertical Wind Shear, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the La Niña phase (Martínez et al. 2023).

Nicaragua is in an area of high exposure to the passage of TC, originating mainly in the Atlantic Ocean. This meteorological phenomenon affects the Atlantic and, indirectly, the Pacific region, causing floods and landslides. Tropical cyclones threaten lives and the country’s development, mainly in the regions of the North and South Atlantic Autonomous Region as well as the departments of the Pacific region. Despite this, very few studies have investigated the temporal distribution and impact of TC on Nicaragua. This information is essential for any initiatives focused on disaster risk management.

On that account, the primary purpose of this study was to develop an understanding of the temporal and spatial occurrence of TC in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020 and their impact on vulnerable regions. The study also examined the historical trajectories of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. Additionally, the exposure of administrative departments to storms and hurricanes was assessed, and exposure indicators were developed.

2 Literature Review: An Overview

A considerable amount of literature has been published on the relationships between climate change and the occurrence of TC globally. Some of these studies underlined that TCs vary in numbers and intensities, and understanding of what causes these trends is incomplete. Inconsistent projection results are due to different methodologies and warming scenarios. Global TC numbers are predicted to decrease, stronger storms are expected with increased rainfall rates (Knutson et al. 2010), and flooding risks are a concern in populated areas (Walsh et al. 2016).

Warmer ocean temperatures are causing stronger tropical storms in the Atlantic (Elsner et al. 2008). This can have profound consequences for societies. Studies conducted by Hsiang (2010) have analyzed temperatures and cyclones concerning economic production in the Caribbean and Central America and found that rising temperatures impact the economy and labor equally.

As far as greenhouse gas emissions are concerned, they worsen TCs. Economic damage could double due to income increases alone, and climate change may cause more high-intensity storms. North America, East Asia, and the Caribbean-Central American region are expected to face the most economic damage (Mendelsohn et al. 2012). Rising air temperatures change vertical wind shear, latitudinal temperature difference, and sea surface temperatures. These three are significant factors in the increase in tropical cyclone intensity (Sobel et al. 2016).

Models indicate that ENSO rainfall variability will increase in the future, and recent findings also suggest that models that capture key ENSO dynamics predict an intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections and an increase in ENSO sea surface temperature variability and magnitude under greenhouse warming (Cai et al. 2021).

The research conducted by Callahan et al. (2021) highlighted the conflicting findings of various simulations that suggest both strengthening of ENSO due to higher greenhouse gas levels and weakening due to higher temperatures. However, their analysis indicated that the observed strengthening of the Pacific zonal temperature gradient can be attributed to internal variability. At the same time, the consistent long-term weakening of ENSO supports the possibility of a permanent El Niño in a high-greenhouse gas world.

Patricola and Wehner (2018) indicated that climate change has increased rainfall but not wind speed intensity in hurricanes. However, human-caused warming will result in higher wind speed and rainfall. Previous studies have reported that global warming intensifies TCs. Major TCs have increased by 8% per decade from 1979 to 2017 (Kossin et al. 2020).

Other studies have considered that TCs globally have decreased since 1990 due to a shift towards more La Niña conditions. North Atlantic TC activity is favored, while North and South Pacific TC activity is suppressed. However, short-lived named storms and damage have increased worldwide (Klotzbach et al. 2022).

Climate variability is contributing to changes in extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, and wildfires. These events can severely impact human health and well-being, disproportionately affecting disadvantaged people and amplifying inequities (Ebi et al. 2021; Romanello et al. 2021). Hence, understanding their causes and drivers is crucial to reducing the risk they pose.

Parker et al. (2019) identified the regions in Nicaragua that are most vulnerable to climate change. Coffee crops are one of the most affected. Adaptive measures are crucial to safeguard farmers’ livelihoods. Success depends on willingness to change, preferences, and institutional response. Institutional arrangements can improve adaptation for food-insecure households (Bro 2020).

3 Study Area

Nicaragua (10°–15°45′N, 79°30′–88°W) is the largest of the seven countries comprising the Central American region. Honduras borders it to the north, Costa Rica to the south, the Caribbean Sea to the east, and the Pacific Ocean to the west (Fig. 1). Its total area is 130,373.47 km2, and the population is estimated to be 6,595,674 (3,254,564 men and 3,341,110 women), where 58.7% are urban and 41.3% rural (INIDE 2019).

Fig. 1
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Source Adapted from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/) and GEBCO Gridded Bathymetry Data (https://download.gebco.net/).

Location of Nicaragua.

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Nicaragua has three central regions: the Pacific, Central-North, and Atlantic. The country experiences a tropical climate with two distinct seasons—a dry summer from January to June and a rainy winter. The seasonal precipitation is uneven nationwide, resulting in frequent droughts and floods. The Atlantic coast receives more rainfall than the Pacific region, with average variations ranging from < 1000 to 5000 mm (Incer et al. 2000).

Nicaragua’s population growth from 1906 to 1978 can be divided into two phases. During the first phase, growth was slow at an average annual rate of 1.75%. The second phase saw a much higher average annual growth rate of 3.03%. Population in the Pacific zone grew faster than the central zone, leading to better economic and social development and a constant influx of immigrants. The urban population was concentrated mainly in the Pacific area, while the rural population was concentrated in the other two areas (Betanco 1979). The country’s population grew 4.5 times from 1950 (1.3 million) to 2010 (5.8 million). The Pacific region has the highest population density, followed by the central-northern region, and the Caribbean coast is the least populated region (INEC 1995).

Many Nicaraguans have migrated to other countries since the 1980s and 1990s due to political-military conflicts and unfavorable socioeconomic conditions. Around 10% of the total population had migrated to other countries by 2000, which continued until 2005 (Baumeister 2006). Nicaragua has a higher rate of emigration among young people of working age and a negative migration balance (INIDE 2007).

Hurricane Mitch devastated Nicaragua in 1998, hitting the most vulnerable communities and environmentally degraded regions. The disaster exposed inequalities and disparities in urban and rural areas (PNUD 2000). Nicaragua’s population has grown at an average annual rate of 10.67% between 2015 and 2020 (INIDE 2021), a growth rate on par with that of other countries in Latin America. This high growth rate has created demographic inequalities and social mobility issues (both within the country and internationally), leading to social vulnerability. Moreover, Nicaragua has made progress in public policies promoting economic growth and social integration, but poverty and inadequate social protection remain critical issues. This results in social vulnerability among Nicaraguans, who face constant exposure to natural and other hazards due to their limited resources to mitigate risks (Busso 2002).

The Nicaraguan population living 100 km inland from the coast is approximately 3,955,235, constituting 60% of the country’s total population. Of these inhabitants, 52.5% reside on the Pacific coast, while 7.5% reside on the Atlantic coast. Tropical cyclones and other hazards pose significant risks to more than half of the national population. Effective strategies to mitigate these risks require scientific research to inform policy making and practice. However, designing and implementing such strategies can be challenging due to institutional and political barriers.

4 Materials and Methods

This study leveraged historical data from 1852–2020, primarily sourced from NOAA’s IBTrACS and Hurdat2 databases, detailing tropical cyclone metrics at three-hour intervals. Supplementary data, including precipitation and population statistics, were obtained from Nicaraguan public sources. The analysis focused on tropical cyclones making landfall on Nicaragua’s coasts, using ArcGIS to model impact zones based on wind speed categories at landfall.

4.1 Materials

Historical data for 1852–2020 were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)Footnote 1 and the IBTrACS website,Footnote 2 in addition to the Hurdat2 database.Footnote 3 These historical tracks contain the locations (geographic coordinates), speeds, pressure, and intensities every 3 hours for each tropical cyclone (category Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Hurricane, Extra Tropical System). Public information was collected from newspapers, scientific articles, and reports on TC from the government of Nicaragua.

In addition, precipitation data from 1964 to 2020 provided by the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER), population data from the 1971 and 1995 censuses, and the 2007 and 2020 statistical yearbooks of the National Information Institute on Development (INIDE) were used. Technical reports from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the Nicaraguan National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Attention (SINAPRED) were also consulted.

Before 1998, Nicaragua had minimal documentation regarding disasters. Following the aftermath of Hurricane Mitch, in 2000 the National System for Disaster Prevention was created. While information databases do exist, they are not publicly accessible. A written request must be submitted to the relevant institutions to obtain data.

4.2 Methods

The analysis was confined to the TC that made landfall on Nicaragua’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Islands that politically belong to Nicaragua’s territory were excluded. For those selected, information was extracted regarding wind speed, pressure, category, direction, and times and dates of entering and leaving the territory (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2
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Methodology

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The second step was the creation of a database that included information on the cyclone intensity derived from wind speed at the time of landfall and the frequency according to the total number of times the hurricanes made landfall (Smith 1999). This allowed the information to be divided into tropical storms, minor hurricanes (category 1–2 Saffir-Simpson scale), and major hurricanes (category 3–5 Saffir-Simpson scale). In addition, information by department and municipality where the effects were felt was included (Fig. 2).

Finally, the ArcGIS Geographic Information System software was used to process and analyze the information using the methodology of Klotzbach and Gray (2005) and Zandbergen (2008), where the area of influence (buffer) is assumed to be symmetrical around the hurricane path, in addition to a simple decay of the internal wind. The buffers were established by categorizing hurricane wind speeds into three groups based on their intensity at the time of landfall on the coastline: Tropical Storm wind (64–120 km/h), Hurricane wind (121–184 km/h), and Intense Hurricane wind (≥ 185 km/h). This would indicate the departments and municipalities affected by the path of a hurricane. This analysis concerned six major category 4 and 5 hurricanes (Edith, Irene, Joan, Felix, Eta, and Iota) that caused disaster in Nicaragua during their occurrences (Fig. 2).

Since instruments to measure wind speed did not become widespread until the late 1870s, there is uncertainty about the intensity and location of TC in the early records (Kruk et al. 2010; Tyner et al. 2015). Therefore, for this study in some contexts, the hurricanes considered were from 1971 or later. In any case, the objective of this work was not to analyze the precision of the wind speed from the NOAA databases.

5 Results

The analysis of tropical cyclone activity in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020 underscored considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity in both frequency and intensity (Fig. 3). The IBTrACS database documents 136 tropical cyclones within 161 km of Nicaragua, with 78 (57%) failing to make landfall. The data indicate a significant escalation in the occurrence of major hurricanes (categories 3–5) since 1992, predominantly affecting the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RACCN). This trend aligns with broader climatic shifts, suggesting a heightened future risk profile for Nicaragua, particularly in the context of increasing storm intensity and associated impacts.

Fig. 3
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Tropical cyclones making landfall in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020, sourced from the Hurdat2 and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACs) databases, alongside associated hazards documented by various sources, including INETER (1998), Incer et al. (2000), CCRIF (2017), Consorcio ERN América Latina (n.d.), Hurdat2, and UNOSAT (2020)

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5.1 Characterization of the 1852–2020 Tropical Cyclone Seasons

The IBTrACS database (NCEI n.d.) records 136 TC that had direct or indirect effects within 161 km of Nicaragua in the 168 years from 1852 to 2020; of these, 78 (57%) did not make landfall (Table 1). The effects of major hurricanes (categories 3–5) on Nicaraguan land were concentrated in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RACCN). Among the 18 hurricanes that made landfall in the country, those that were involved in the greatest disasters were: in 1971, Edith (category 5) and Irene (4); in 1988, Joan (4); in 2007, Felix (4); and in 2020, Eta (4) and Iota (4).

Table 1 Frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020 categorized by intensity
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The temporal distribution of TCs’ quantity and intensity has not been homogeneous from 1852 onwards. However, the percentage of hurricanes reaching category H3 or H4 has increased since 1992 (Fig. 4a). Major hurricanes tended to occur during September, October, and November, and in only two decades (1902–1911 and 1992–2001), hurricanes affected Nicaragua also during July (Fig. 4b).

Fig. 4
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a The percentage of hurricanes making landfall in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020, based on data from INETER (1964–2020); b monthly distribution of hurricanes making landfall in Nicaragua over the same period, sourced from Hurdat2

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5.2 Historical Trajectories of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific, 1852–2020

Nicaragua has experienced at least one TC yearly, with tropical storms and category 1 and 2 hurricanes predominating. Those of category 4 have predominated among category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes. The trajectory and impact of cyclones have differed among the 15 departments and two autonomous regions (North Atlantic and South Atlantic) (Fig. 5), with the jurisdictions most frequently affected being those on the eastern coast, the RACCN and the RACCS.

Fig. 5
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Trajectories of tropical cyclones impacting Nicaragua from 1952 to 2020, using data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACs)

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In Nicaragua, TCs tend to originate in the Caribbean Sea at the Atlantic Ocean, and the predominant trajectory is west-northwest (Fig. 5). Although the average annual number of tropical storms and hurricanes may not have changed, their intensity has increased over time, and there is a spatial pattern in the trends linked to the occurrence of TC on a global scale since 1980, highlighting the increase in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific areas. It is considered that in the future, more intense hurricanes will occur, with higher wind speeds and more precipitation, as a consequence of climate change (IPCC 2023; Martínez et al. 2023).

Tropical cyclones influence regional precipitation. The climate of Nicaragua is tropical, with two seasons and significant variations in annual precipitation between 750 mm and 2000 mm across the land area. This introduces climatic vulnerability. Tropical cyclones occur mainly in the rainy season, when rainwater may already have accumulated; hence, cyclones can generate floods and landslides. During September 1971, Hurricanes Irene and Edith caused rainfall that exceeded the annual average. Similarly, in September 2007, when Hurricane Felix was accompanied by 475 mm of rain, precipitation exceeded the annual average in one week.

In 2001, tropical storm Michelle generated 709 mm of precipitation in one week, so rainfall of that year was double the annual average for Nicaragua. This shows that, although not all TCs reach hurricane strength, the precipitation during their transit can significantly affect the total rainfall in that year (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6
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A comparison between average annual precipitation and precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) in the same year, based on data from INETER spanning 1964–2020

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The contribution of TCs to the rainy season may account for up to 50% of the average annual precipitation, particularly in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region and South Atlantic Autonomous Region where they are most frequent.

5.3 Exposure of Administrative Departments to Storms and Hurricanes

Based on frequency and scale, INETER classifies the threat levels in the Atlantic region from high to very high. The 12 municipalities under the most threat belong to the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (seven municipalities) and South Atlantic Autonomous Region (five municipalities) (CEPAL-BID 2007). Of the 58 TCs that directly affected Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020, 24 had a name, and nine reached hurricane intensity. Of TCs that made landfall on the Nicaraguan coast, 57 came from the Atlantic and one from the Pacific Ocean. The years with the most direct impacts of TC in Nicaragua were 1891, 1933, 1940, 1971, 1993, 2001, 2010, and 2020.

Exposure of inhabitants to TCs from 1852 to 2020 was considered in terms of administrative department (see Tables 2 and 3). The number of times a TC hit the area was determined by analyzing the trajectory of a TC as a polyline and the affected department as a polygon. It was assumed that a storm only makes landfall once. A symmetrical buffer distance was employed based on wind speed to gauge the maximum radius of the cyclone’s impact. The estimate considered that a hurricane’s typical maximum wind radius is about 35 km from the center or eye of the hurricane (Kaplan and DeMaria 1995). The storm’s maximum intensity typically declines gradually with distance, following a simple decay function (Zandbergen 2008).

Table 2 Frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall in Nicaragua’s four most vulnerable administrative departments, 1852–2020
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Table 3 Populations within Nicaraguan regions exposed to six category 4 or 5 hurricanes (based on census data from 1971, 1995, 2007, and 2020)
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The hurricanes used in the analysis were Edith and Irene (1971), Joan (1988), Felix (2007), and Eta and Iota (2020), all being categories 4–5 (Fig. 7). Zones of influence were delimited according to wind speed (64–120, 121–184, ≥ 185 km/h), and the trajectory of these hurricanes and their effects across the Nicaraguan departments and autonomous regions were traced (Fig. 8). For a TC with a maximum wind speed of 121 km/h, a radius of 120 km was estimated to have experienced winds with tropical storm force, and a radius of 56 km to have experienced hurricane-force winds.

Fig. 7
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Trajectories of the tropical cyclones included in the analysis

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Fig. 8
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Exposure of Nicaragua’s administrative departments to hurricanes: a Edith (1971); b Irene (1971); c Joan (1988); d Felix (2007); e Eta (2020); f Iota (2020)

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The number of departments and municipalities affected by hurricanes is much greater when this methodology is used than when only the direct impacts, represented by path lines, are considered. The exposure levels of the individual administrative departments could be identified, allowing the preparation of response strategies to manage TCs’ impact appropriately.

5.4 Exposure Indicators

According to published landfall calculations based on records from 1900 to 2000, the probability of passage within 80 km of Nicaragua is 40% for tropical storms, 17% for category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and 9% for category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes (Central America/Caribbean landfall probability calculations n.d.).

The analysis showed that 58 TCs have affected Nicaragua over the past 50 years, that is, one hydrometeorological event every 0.9 year. 1971 and 2020 were the most active years, with two events reaching disaster status. The departments most affected by TCs in Nicaragua have been the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RACCN), South Atlantic Autonomous Region (RACCS), Rio San Juan, and León.

For each of these four particularly vulnerable departments, the probability of the risk of a TC was calculated (Table 2) using Poisson’s law of probability, taking the data recorded for the study area (1852–2020). The formula for the Poisson distribution is as follows:

$$EP = (e-p) (px) / x!$$

where EP = Expected probability; p = annual average number of tropical cyclones that have occurred in the past 100 years; x = Number of storms expected in the upcoming year based on the Poisson formula; x! = Factorial. If x = 3, then x! = 3 × 2 × 1 = 6. If x = 4, then x! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24; e = 2.71828

For the RACCN, there is a 26% probability of at least one tropical storm and a 7% probability of a category 4 hurricane in any given year. For each of the six major hurricanes, an estimate was made of the number of people who would have been affected directly and indirectly by precipitation and extreme wind speed (Table 3). Of the population of Nicaragua, Edith (1971) affected 44%, Irene (1971) affected 52%, and Hurricanes Joan (1988), Felix (2007), Eta (2020), and Iota (2020) each affected 100%.

The hurricane that hit Nicaragua with the highest wind speed was Felix (259 km/h), followed by Edith (241 km/h), then Joan and Iota (232 km/h), Eta (222 km/h), and Irene (115 km/h). The losses have been significant and reveal the country’s vulnerability.

6 Discussion

Velásquez and Alcántara-Ayala (2023) conducted a study to document significant disasters involving TCs for 50 years in Nicaragua. Their study focused on TCs that have directly impacted Nicaragua based on their paths and identified areas exposed to potential impacts, including floods and landslides. This information is intended to help prioritize measures to reduce risks and is valuable for decision makers. The results of this study confirm the findings of significant cyclone impacts, including those from Mitch, Felix, and Joan. Both analyses highlighted a growing intensity trend and emphasized the need for enhanced disaster risk reduction strategies (Velásquez and Alcántara-Ayala 2023).

On a global scale, there is little compelling evidence to suggest a notable increase in the frequency or severity of TC making landfall. Instead, the mounting damage wrought by these storms in recent decades likely stemmed from the rapid industrial growth and urbanization in areas prone to their impact. The economic toll exacted by TCs has risen sharply worldwide in recent years. For instance, the United States experiences a higher incidence of the most costly and deadly storms when compared to Europe and Asia (Weinkle et al. 2012; Lau et al. 2022). However, the incidence rate of hurricanes in the United States is associated with La Niña episodes (Saunders et al. 2000), and the magnitude of the impact of hurricanes is primarily determined by people’s vulnerability and exposure (Myers et al. 2008).

According to Gray (1984), the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes during El Niño years is lower than non-El Niño years. Likewise, Saunders et al. (2000) noted that the occurrence, spatial impacts, and frequency of intense TCs in the Atlantic are related to warm and cold ENSO regimes, and these relationships are statistically significant at the 90% or 95% level. It is also suggested that the activity of TCs is affected by the variation in sea level pressure in the tropical Atlantic during summer. Lower than normal pressure in the Atlantic increases TC activity and vice versa. Knaff (1997) explained that this variation may be due to several factors, including vertical wind shear in and around the Caribbean Sea and drier mid-levels, especially in regions where tropical storms form and intensify.

Historically, the most destructive hurricanes in Nicaragua were Mitch in 1998, Felix in 2007, and Joan in 1988. Fifteen cyclones occurred during La Niña, three during El Niño, and four during the neutral phase between 1971 and 2020 (Velásquez and Alcántara-Ayala 2023). The regions of the country most susceptible to the impact of cyclones are the North Atlantic Autonomous Region and South Atlantic Autonomous Region, the Department of Rio San Juan on the Caribbean coast, and the Pacific regions of Rivas, León, and Chinandega.

This study aimed to assess the importance of the historical direct impacts of TC on society in Nicaragua. Furthermore, it has derived the statistical probabilities of hurricane-spawned high winds affecting the territory. As noted above, between 1852 and 2020, Nicaragua faced 58 TCs, mainly between September and November, with varying intensity levels; 24 had a name, and nine reached hurricane intensity. Hence, on average, the country has experienced one such event every 0.9 years, with 1971 and 2020 being the most active, each with two TCs per year.

Only during Hurricane Edith were significantly more people exposed in rural areas than in urban areas: of 850,010 people exposed, 646,688 were rural dwellers, and 203,322 were urban. Hurricane Irene affected 994,175 people, two-thirds living in urban areas (603,946) and the remaining third in rural areas (390,229). Hurricane Joan affected more than 4.3 million people, of whom ~ 50% lived in urban areas. Hurricane Felix affected 5,595,540 people: 3,152,806 urban and 2,442,734 rural. Iota was the hurricane to which most people were exposed: 6,595,674, 3,873,239 were urban, and 2,723,435 were rural.

The urbanization process in Nicaragua, which began in the 1970s, was influenced by various factors. At the time, the country’s economy was primarily based on agricultural production, concentrated in regions with favorable climate conditions. Consequently, the majority of the population began to settle in small towns. Small cities began to emerge with the gradual development of the manufacturing industry and the export of coffee. These cities, located at the heart of the leading agricultural areas, became the main population centers. The urbanization process was further reinforced by disasters and internal armed conflicts, such as the revolution, which resulted in high levels of migration both within the country and abroad. The nexus between development, urbanization, and disaster risk remains a complex challenge (Maskrey and Lavell 2023), specifically when a high percentage of the population is exposed to hazards such as TCs.

The present findings mirror those of the previous studies concerned with the social construction of disaster risk in Central America. For instance, Hurricanes Eta and Iota caused significant damage to vulnerable areas in November 2020. The municipalities most affected were the mining triangle of the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (Bonanza, Rosita, and Siuna) and, in the south, the Pacific area in Diriamba and Rivas (SINAPRED 2020).

What is certain is that the severity of disasters is heavily influenced by social vulnerability and exposure. When these factors combine, the consequences can be devastating. To mitigate future risks, it is essential to implement effective strategies for disaster risk management including climate change adaptation. Furthermore, it is vital to acknowledge climate change’s intricate, uncertain, and long-term effects and adopt resilient risk management strategies accordingly (Lavell et al. 2012).

7 Conclusion

This investigation showed that from 1852 to 2020, Nicaragua faced 58 TC with varying degrees of intensity. Considering buffer zones that might extend into neighboring jurisdictions revealed a much higher number of departments and municipalities impacted by hurricanes than if only direct path lines were considered.

The present results are significant in terms of practical applications. The methodology used can help to identify priority areas for attention to the risk posed by TC, particularly category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes; the data can help local administrative officials to solve societal problems in areas directly and indirectly affected by TC; the historical records of exposure to winds caused by TC have demonstrated the need for improved building codes; and the study provides additional evidence that authorities must develop strategies to reduce disaster risk associated with hydrometeorological hazards and seek resources for disaster prevention and mitigation. A key policy priority should be planning for the short-, medium-, and long-term care of at-risk people.

There is abundant room for further progress in determining the key links between science and policy making. Despite the endeavor made by the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Attention (SINAPRED) to achieve an efficient integrated disaster risk management, significant additional efforts must be undertaken. Disasters and disaster risk must be regarded as the result of the impact of diverse hazards on the vulnerable population. As such, their analysis must consider several dimensions, among them the perception of risk, which influences not only the response to disasters, but also the degree of awareness, preparation, and preventative measures used (Blaikie et al. 1994; Alcántara-Ayala, Gomez, et al. 2023).

It is crucial for government officials and emergency managers to carefully consider the documented shifts in hazard patterns and evaluate their readiness and strategies for minimizing potential harm (Goldenberg et al. 2001). Nevertheless, most importantly, in agreement with Weinkle et al. (2012), significant efforts must be made, as the increased economic losses associated with TCs at the global, national, and local scales are due to social and economic changes in affected regions, not in the storms. Addressing such challenges and implementing interventions from an integrated perspective is essential to achieve these goals effectively.

Understanding the social construction of disaster risk and implementing sound communication strategies requires a more profound knowledge of the elements of risk and communication dynamics. The population must be encouraged and helped to participate in efforts to reduce disaster risk. This perspective is highly relevant to Nicaragua’s North Atlantic Autonomous Region and South Pacific Coast. It emphasizes the need to develop capacities and mechanisms to understand and respond appropriately to meteorological phenomena, mainly TCs. Reducing risk would enable the reestablishment of acceptable and sustainable economic and social development conditions.