Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Predictors of Marital Dissolution During a Period of Rapid Social Change: Evidence From South Asia

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

Few studies have examined the causes and consequences of marital dissolution in non-Western settings. This article explores the fundamental factors that may predict marital dissolution in a mainly agrarian setting in South Asia, where collectivism has historically been valued over individualism and where life is centered on the family. Using event history analyses with retrospective life history data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study conducted in rural Nepal, I explore the possible predictors of marital dissolution. Results suggest that couples in which wives married at older ages and chose their spouse in conjunction with their parents face lower risk of marital dissolution, while wives’ work increases the risk. Moreover, couples married for longer durations and couples who have more children face lower risks of marital dissolution. The influences of many of these factors have changed over the last few decades, pointing toward the important role of changing social context on marital trajectories.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Of the 921 divorces that were filed in the Chitwan District Court between 2000 and 2009, 99.6 % were filed by wives (up from 92.4 % of the 249 divorces filed in the 1990s).

  2. Quotes presented in this article are from in-depth interviews conducted in the fall of 2010. Respondents included 30 women and men between the ages of 18 and 45. These respondents were residing in neighborhoods of varying distances from the local city, Narayanghat, and represent the different ethnic groups in the area.

  3. Only 7 % of ever-married women ages 40 and older in the 2008 CVFS sample had been married more than once.

  4. The measure of marital dissolution indicates marital breakdown, and separation due to temporary migration is not coded as a marital dissolution.

  5. Because of possible concerns about linearity, I also tested models with a series of three dummy variables to indicate age at marriage, each representing approximately one-third of the sample: under age 17, ages 17–19, and ages 20 and older. These models revealed that the odds of marital dissolution decline with increasing age at marriage, relative to marrying before age 17. To test whether women who marry at the high end of the age range are skewing the results, I also estimated a model in which women who married at or after age 30 (a total of 21 women in the sample) were dropped from the analytic sample. Results were nearly identical to those shown in Model 1 of Table 2.

  6. This does not exactly parallel the trends shown in Fig. 1. Those data reflect numbers from Chitwan court records, while these data are from self-reports of either separation or divorce among women who may not have been residing in Chitwan at the time of marital dissolution. Moreover, court records are more likely to be sensitive to relaxation of laws restricting divorce (Goode 1993), and thus it is not surprising that self-reports are more stable.

  7. Interactions with a measure indicating marital cohort (not shown), rather than calendar decade, reveal similar but weaker results compared with those shown in Table 3.

  8. Interactions between variables reflecting years of schooling and decade (not shown) revealed no significant associations, regardless of the inclusion of measures for age at marriage or number of services within an hour’s walk during childhood.

References

  • Allendorf, K. (2007). Do women’s land rights promote empowerment and child health in Nepal? World Development, 35, 1975–1988.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allendorf, K., & Ghimire, D. J. (2013). Determinants of marital quality in an arranged marriage society. Social Science Research, 42, 59–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amato, P. R. (2000). The consequences of divorce for adults and children. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 62, 1269–1287.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axinn, W. G., & Barber, J. S. (2001). Mass education and fertility transition. American Sociological Review, 66,,481–505.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axinn, W. G., & Ghimire, D. J. (2011). Social organization, population and land use. American Journal of Sociology, 117, 209–258.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axinn, W. G., Pearce, L. D., & Ghimire, D. J. (1999). Innovations in life history calendar applications. Social Science Research, 28, 243–264.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axinn, W. G., & Yabiku, S. T. (2001). Social change, the social organization of families, and fertility limitation. American Journal of Sociology, 106, 1219–1261.

  • Barber, J. S., & Axinn, W. G. (2004). New ideas and fertility limitation: The role of mass media. Journal of Marriage and Family, 66, 1180–1200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becker, G. S., Landes, E. M., & Michael, R. T. (1977). An economic analysis of marital instability. Journal of Political Economy, 85, 1141–1187.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennett, L. (1983). Dangerous wives and sacred sisters: Social and symbolic roles of high-caste women in Nepal. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bose, S., & South, S. J. (2003). Sex composition of children and marital disruption in India. Journal of Marriage and Family, 65, 996–1006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cameron, M. M. (1998). On the edge of auspicious: Gender and caste in Nepal. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cammack, M., & Heaton, T. (2011). Explaining the recent upturn in divorce in Indonesia: Developmental idealism and the effect of political change. Asian Journal of Social Science, 39, 776–796.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang, T. P., & Jones, G. W. (1990). Malay divorce in peninsular Malaysia: The near-disappearance of an institution. Southeast Asian Journal of Social Science, 18(2), 85–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cherlin, A. (1978). Remarriage as an incomplete institution. American Journal of Sociology, 84, 634–650.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coontz, S. (2007). The origins of modern divorce. Family Process, 46, 7–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deuba, A. R., & Rana, P. S. (2001). Psycho-social impacts of violence against women and girls with special focus on rape, incest, and polygamy. Kathmandu, Nepal: Saathi and SNV.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dommaraju, P. (2016). Divorce and separation in India. Population and Development Review, 42, 195–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dommaraju, P., & Jones, G. (2011). Divorce trends in Asia. Asia Journal of Social Science, 39, 725–750.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fricke, T. E. (1986). Himalayan households: Tamang demography and domestic processes. Ann Arbor, MI: UMI Research Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghimire, D. J., Axinn, W. G., Yabiku, S. A., & Thornton, A. (2006). Social change, premarital non-family experience and spouse choice in an arranged marriage society. American Journal of Sociology, 111, 1181–1219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilbert, K. (1992). Women and family law in modern Nepal: Statutory rights and social implications. New York University Journal of International Law and Politics, 24, 729–758.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goode, W. J. (1993). World changes in divorce patterns. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenstein, T. N., & Davis, S. N. (2006). Cross-national variations in divorce: Effects of women’s power, prestige, and dependence. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 37, 253–273.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guest, P. (1992). Marital dissolution and development in Indonesia. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 23, 95–113.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guneratne, A. (2002). Many tongues, one people: The making of Tharu identity in Nepal. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hannan, M. T., Tuma, N. B., & Groeneveld, L. P. (1977). Income and marital events: Evidence from an income-maintenance experiment. American Journal of Sociology, 82, 1186–1211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heaton, T. B. (1990). Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years. Demography, 27, 55–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heaton, T. B., Cammack, M., & Young, L. (2001). Why is the divorce rate declining in Indonesia? Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 480–490.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirschman, C., & Teerawichitchainan, B. (2003). Cultural and socioeconomic influences on divorce during modernization: Southeast Asia, 1940s to 1960s. Population and Development Review, 29, 215–253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holden, L. (2008). Hindu divorce: A legal anthropology. London, UK: Ashgate Publishing Limited.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jennings, E. (2014). Marital discord and subsequent dissolution: Perceptions of Nepalese wives and husbands. Journal of Marriage and Family, 76, 476–488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jennings, E. (Forthcoming). Family composition and marital dissolution in rural Nepal, 1945–2008. Population Studies.

  • Jones, G. W. (1994). Marriage and divorce in Islamic South-East Asia. Singapore: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, G. W. (2010). Changing marriage patterns in Asia (Working Paper Series, No. 131). Singapore: Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, G. W., Asari, Y., & Djuartika, T. (1994). Divorce in West Java. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 25, 395–416.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalmijn, M., Loeve, A., & Manting, D. (2007). Income dynamics in couples and the dissolution of marriage and cohabitation. Demography, 44, 159–179.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King, G., & Zeng, L. (2001). Logistic regression in rare events data. Political Analysis, 9, 137–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levine, N. E. (1987). Caste, state, and ethnic boundaries in Nepal. Journal of Asian Studies, 46, 71–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manzione, L. L. (2001). Human rights in the Kingdom of Nepal: Do they exist on paper? Brooklyn Journal of International Law, 27, 193–244.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin, T. C., & Bumpass, L. L. (1989). Recent trends in marital disruption. Demography, 26, 37–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mathur, S., Greene, M., & Malhotra, A. (2003). Too young to wed: The lives, rights, and health of young married girls (Report). Washington, DC: International Center for Research on Women.

  • McLanahan, S., & Bumpass, L. (1988). Intergenerational consequences of family disruption. American Journal of Sociology, 94, 130–152.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, S. P., Lye, D. L., & Condran, G. A. (1988). Sons, daughters, and the risk of marital disruption. American Journal of Sociology, 94, 110–129.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, S. P., & Rindfuss, R. R. (1985). Marital disruption: Structural and temporal dimensions. American Journal of Sociology, 90, 1055–1077.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niraula, B. B. (1995). Old age security and inheritance in Nepal: Motives versus means. Journal of Biosocial Science, 27, 71–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niraula, B. B., & Morgan, S. P. (1996). Marriage formation, post-marital contact with natal kin and autonomy of women from two Nepali settings. Population Studies, 50, 35–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ono, H. (1998). Husbands’ and wives’ resources and marital dissolution. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 60, 674–689.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Population Reference Bureau (PRB). (2015). 2015 World population data sheet (Report). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raley, K. R., & Bumpass, L. (2003). The topography of the divorce plateau: Levels and trends in union stability in the United States after 1980. Demographic Research, 8(article 8), 245–260. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2003.8.8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ranga Rao, A. B. S. V., & Sekhar, K. (2002). Divorce: Process and correlates a cross-cultural study. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 33, 541–563.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, S. J. (1999). Wives’ income and marital quality: Are there reciprocal effects? Journal of Marriage and the Family, 61, 123–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruggles, S. (1997). The rise of divorce and separation in the Unites States, 1880–1990. Demography, 34, 455–466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R. (1992). First unions and the stability of first marriages. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 54, 281–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R., Astone, N. M., Rothert, K., Standish, N. J., & Kim, Y. J. (2002). Women’s employment, marital happiness, and divorce. Social Forces, 81, 643–662.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • South, S. J. (2001). The geographic context of divorce: Do neighborhoods matter? Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 755–766.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • South, S. J., & Lloyd, K. M. (1995). Spousal alternatives and marital dissolution. American Sociological Review, 60, 21–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • South, S. J., & Spitze, G. (1986). Determinants of divorce over the marital life course. American Sociological Review, 51, 583–590.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stanley, S. M., Amato, P. R., Johnson, C. A., & Markman, H. J. (2006). Premarital education, marital quality, and marital stability: Findings from a large, random household survey. Journal of Family Psychology, 20, 117–126.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stash, S. (1999). Explanations of unmet need for contraception in Chitwan, Nepal. Studies in Family Planning, 30, 267–287.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stash, S., & Hannum, E. (2001). Who goes to school? Educational stratification by gender, caste, and ethnicity in Nepal. Comparative Education Review, 45, 354–378.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stone, L. (1978). Cultural repercussions of childlessness and low fertility in Nepal. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 5(2), 7–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Teachman, J. D. (2002). Stability across cohorts in divorce risk factors. Demography, 39, 331–351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton, A. (2005). Reading history sideways: The fallacy and enduring impact of the developmental paradigm on family life. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thornton, A., Axinn, W. G., & Xie, Y. (2007). Marriage and cohabitation. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton, A., & Lin, H. (1994). Social change and the family in Taiwan. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thornton, A., & Young-DeMarco, L. (2001). Four decades of trends in attitudes toward family issues in the United States: The 1960s through the 1990s. Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 1009–1037.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trent, K., & South, S. J. (1989). Structural determinants of the divorce rate: A cross-societal analysis. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 51, 391–404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tzeng, M. (1992). The effects of socioeconomic heterogamy and changes in marital dissolution for first marriages. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 54, 609–619.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waite, L. J., & Lillard, L. A. (1991). Children and marital disruption. American Journal of Sociology, 96, 930–953.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yabiku, S. T. (2005). The effect of non-family experiences on age at marriage in a setting of rapid social change. Population Studies, 59, 339–354.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, W.-S., & Yen, P.-C. (2011). A comparative study of marital dissolution in East Asian societies: Gender attitudes and social expectations towards marriage in Taiwan, Korea and Japan. Asian Journal of Social Science, 39, 751–775.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

I am grateful for support from the Population Studies Center at University of Michigan (Grant Nos. R24 HD041028 and T32 HD007339), from the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina (Grant Nos. T32 HD007168 and R24 HD050924), from the National Science Foundation (Grant No. OISE 0729709), and from the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies. I would like to thank the Institute for Social and Environmental Research in Chitwan, Nepal for collecting the data used here; William Axinn, Abigail Stewart, Jennifer Barber, Dirgha Ghimire, Rachael Pierotti, William Story, Lisa Pearce, Prem Bhandari, and Jessica Pearlman for helpful comments on earlier versions of this article; and Cathy Sun for assisting with data management. All errors and omissions remain the responsibility of the author.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA

    Elyse A. Jennings

Authors
  1. Elyse A. Jennings
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Elyse A. Jennings.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jennings, E.A. Predictors of Marital Dissolution During a Period of Rapid Social Change: Evidence From South Asia. Demography 53, 1351–1375 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0504-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0504-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation