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Stochastic Modelling of the Daily Rainfall Frequency and Amount

  • Research Article - Earth Sciences
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Abstract

Daily rainfall is an important origin of water supply to the dry land in cultivated areas of Pakistan where the inhabitants primarily rely on farming. Stochastic rainfall models are concerned with generation of the occurrence and amount of daily rainfall. To generate the sequence of rainfall occurrence, first-order Markov chain model was employed by using the method of transitional probability matrices, while rainfall amount was generated by applying gamma distribution. The parameters of model were estimated from the archives of daily rainfall records for the period 1981–2010. The shape and scale parameters were estimated by method of moments and hence it became possible to find the parametric values at the study areas and then generate synthetic sequences according to the gamma distribution. The essential parameters for the stochastic generation include the means, variance or standard deviation and conditional and unconditional probabilities of wet and dry days.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan

    Naeem Sadiq

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  1. Naeem Sadiq
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Correspondence to Naeem Sadiq.

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Sadiq, N. Stochastic Modelling of the Daily Rainfall Frequency and Amount. Arab J Sci Eng 39, 5691–5702 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-014-1132-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-014-1132-5

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