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Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010

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Abstract

Drought is one of the complex meteorological disasters affecting water resources, agriculture, livestock, and socioeconomic patterns of a region. Although drought prediction is difficult, it can be monitored based on climatological information. In this study, we provide high spatiotemporal resolution drought climatology, using observational, gridded precipitation data (0.5°×0.5°) from the Global Precipitation Climatological Center and soil moisture data from the Climate Prediction Center for the 60-yr period 1951–2010. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) based on a fitted Gamma distribution and Run method has been calculated from the regional drought identification model (ReDIM) for 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. The results show strong temporal correlations among anomalies of precipitation, soil moisture, and SPI. Analysis of long-term precipitation data reveals that the drought vulnerability concentrates on monsoon season (July–September), which contributes 72.4% and 82.1% of the annual precipitation in northern and southern Sindh, respectively. Annual and seasonal analyses show no significant changes in the observed precipitation. The category classification criteria are defined to monitor/forecast drought in the selected area. Further analysis identifies two longest episodes of drought, i.e., 1972–1974 and 2000–2002, while 1969, 1974, 1987, and 2002 are found to be the most severe historical drought years. A drought hazard map of Sindh was developed, in which 10 districts are recognized as highly vulnerable to drought. This study helps to explain the time, duration, intensity, and frequency of meteorological droughts over Sindh as well as its neighboring regions, and provides useful information to disaster management agencies and forecasters for assessing both the regional vulnerability of drought and its seasonal predictability in Pakistan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Shahzada Adnan & Kalim Ullah

  2. Pakistan Meteorological Department, National Drought Monitoring Centre, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Shahzada Adnan

  3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Shouting Gao  (高守亭)

  4. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Shouting Gao  (高守亭)

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  1. Shahzada Adnan
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  2. Kalim Ullah
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  3. Shouting Gao  (高守亭)
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Correspondence to Shahzada Adnan.

Additional information

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91437215 and 41375052) and National Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2012CB417201).

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Adnan, S., Ullah, K. & Gao, S. Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010. J Meteorol Res 29, 837–857 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-4113-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-4113-z

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