Abstract
Catastrophe theory can describe a continuous process that is undergoing abrupt changes. A dynamic process can be considered to be a swallowtail catastrophe if it has the following six qualities: bimodality, divergence, sudden transitions, hysteresis, inaccessibility and irreversibility. In this paper, the swallowtail catastrophe model is applied to describe the changing dynamic process of subway fire accidents. This dynamic process is also proved to have the six qualities of a swallowtail catastrophe. By using the swallowtail catastrophe model, we construct a model for the subway fire accidents, and we present analyses of subway fire accidents. On the basis of the model and analyses, the dynamic changes in the subway fire accident evolution process can be described with a novel approach. The causes of fire accidents in subways are also discussed, from the perspective of the fire triangle and four elements of an accident. We hope that this study’s theoretical descriptions and discussion of subway fire accidents will facilitate a profound analysis of subway safety.
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Acknowledgements
This paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant No. B16A300010, the National Social Science Foundation of China, Grant Nos. 13AZD088 and 17CGL073, the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province, Grant No. ZR2017BG009, Beijing Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science, Grant No. 16GLC050, and Shandong Provincial Social Science Planning and Management Office, Grant No. 16DGLJ10. At the end of this paper, I’d like to express my sincere thanks to the editors and reviewers who gave us the rigorous, enlightening and reflective proposals to improve the quality of the paper and the direction of in-depth study.
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Lin, X., Song, S., Zhai, H. et al. Using catastrophe theory to analyze subway fire accidents. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag 11, 223–235 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-019-00942-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-019-00942-2