Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Dam break study and its flood risk in Gurara watershed-Nigeria under varied spatio-temporal conditions by integrating HSPF and HEC–RAS models

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Environmental Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study focuses on the flood disaster and risk that can potentially occur in the event of a dam break in the Gurara watershed, Nigeria. The aim is to evaluate the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) and hydroclimatic variability on the aforementioned dam. This is done through integration of Hydrological Simulation Fortran Program (HSPF), hydro-dynamic models and field observations. The simulation result presents the extent of the flood downstream, which inundates 274.6 Km2 (27,460 ha) of the watershed, that includes a peri-urban Jere town with a total population of 9912 and 6000 ha of irrigation area that has the potential to produce 100,000 metric tons of food in four circles per year. Further analysis of the result shows that the flood hazard map of the flooded area produced a varied index for each scenario, but it shows that the hazards increase with an increase in the literal inflow into the dam from the upstream runoffs. The hazard maps identify risks in vulnerable areas. The downstream area experiences diverse exposure based on the proximity of LULC class to the prone zones. This research presents details about the possible disaster associated with dam collapse in nearby communities.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Not applicable.

References

  • Abdessamed D, Abderrazak B (2019) Coupling HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS in rainfall–runoff modeling and evaluating floodplain inundation maps in arid environments: case study of Ain Sefra city, Ksour Mountain, SW of Algeria. Environ Earth Sci 78:586

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Aboyeji OS (2016) Hydro-period dynamics of some inland valley agroecosystems in southwest Nigeria. Afr Geogr Rev 35:294–305

    Google Scholar 

  • Açıl A, Aydın A, Eker R, Duyar A (2023) Use of UAV data and HEC-RAS model for dimensioning of hydraulic structures on forest roads. Croat J for Eng J Theory Appl for Eng 44:171–188

    Google Scholar 

  • Ali A, Rana IA, Ali A, Najam FA (2022) Flood risk perception and communication: The role of hazard proximity. J Environ Manag 316:115309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amini A, Bahrami J, Miraki A (2022) Effects of dam break on downstream dam and lands using GIS and Hec Ras: a decision basis for the safe operation of two successive dams. Int J River Basin Manag 20:487–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Azam S, Li Q (2010) Tailings dam failures: a review of the last one hundred years. Geotech News 28:50–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Baky MAA, Islam M, Paul S (2020) Flood hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for different land use classes using a flow model. Earth Syst Environ 4:225–244

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Bermúdez M, Zischg AP (2018) Sensitivity of flood loss estimates to building representation and flow depth attribution methods in micro-scale flood modelling. Nat Hazards 92:1633–1648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattarai S, Parajuli PB, To F (2023) Comparison of flood frequency at different climatic scenarios in forested coastal watersheds. Climate 11:41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonsal B, Zhang X, Vincent L, Hogg W (2001) Characteristics of daily and extreme temperatures over Canada. J Clim 14:1959–1976

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Brunner GW (2016) HEC-RAS river analysis system 2D modeling user’s manual. US Army Corps of Engineers—Hydrologic Engineering Center, pp 1–171

    Google Scholar 

  • Chauhan N, Shukla R, Joshi P (2020) Assessing impact of varied social and ecological conditions on inherent vulnerability of Himalayan agriculture communities. Hum Ecol Risk Assess Int J 26:2628–2645

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen S-S, Zhong Q-M, Shen G-Z (2019) Numerical modeling of earthen dam breach due to piping failure. Water Sci Eng 12:169–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dam S, Jimoh O, Ayodeji O (2003) Water resources systems-hydrological risk, management and development (Proceedings of symposium 277 HS02b held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo, July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 281, 2003. In: Page 277 in Water Resources Systems--hydrological Risk, Management and Development: Proceedings of an International Symposium (Symposium HS02b) Held During IUGG 2003, the XXIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics: at Sapporo, Japan, from 30 June to 11 July, 2003. International Association of Hydrological Science.

  • Dasallas L, Kim Y, An H (2019) Case study of HEC-RAS 1D–2D coupling simulation: 2002 Baeksan flood event in Korea. Water 11:2048

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davenport FV, Herrera-Estrada JE, Burke M, Diffenbaugh NS (2020) Flood size increases nonlinearly across the western United States in response to lower snow-precipitation ratios. Water Resour Res 56:e2019WR025571

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Elfeki A, Masoud M, Niyazi B (2017) Integrated rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modeling for flash flood risk assessment under data scarcity in arid regions: Wadi Fatimah basin case study, Saudi Arabia. Nat Hazards 85:87–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ezugwu C (2013) Dam development and disasters in Nigeria. Int J Eng Res Technol (IJERT) 2:960–977

    Google Scholar 

  • Fourie A, Papageorgiou G, Blight G (2019) Static liquefaction as an explanation for two catastrophic tailings dam failures in South Africa. In: A. A. Balkema Publishers (ed) Tailings and mine waste 2000. CRC Press, LLC, USA, pp 149–158

  • Fryirs KA (2017) River sensitivity: a lost foundation concept in fluvial geomorphology. Earth Surf Proc Land 42:55–70

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Gao H, Liu J, Lin P, Li C, Xiao Y, Hu G (2022) Pedestrian level wind flow field of elevated tall buildings with dense tandem arrangement. Build Environ 226:109745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghimire E, Sharma S, Lamichhane N (2022) Evaluation of one-dimensional and two-dimensional HEC-RAS models to predict flood travel time and inundation area for flood warning system. ISH J Hydraul Eng 28:110–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gouldby B, Sayers P, Mulet-Marti J, Hassan M, Benwell D (2008) A methodology for regional-scale flood risk assessment. In: Pages 169–182 in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management. Thomas Telford Ltd

  • Guan M, Guo K, Yan H, Wright N (2023) Bottom-up multilevel flood hazard mapping by integrated inundation modelling in data scarce cities. J Hydrol 617:129114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo K, Guan M, Yu D (2021) Urban surface water flood modelling–a comprehensive review of current models and future challenges. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 25:2843–2860

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Ha H, Bui QD, Nguyen HD, Pham BT, Lai TD, Luu C (2023) A practical approach to flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessing and mapping for Quang Binh province, Vietnam. Environ Dev Sustain 25:1101–1130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hussain M, Tayyab M, Zhang J, Shah AA, Ullah K, Mehmood U, Al-Shaibah B (2021) GIS-based multi-criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment and mapping in district Shangla: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Sustainability 13:3126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ibrahim HM, Isiguzo EA (2009) Flood frequency analysis of Figurara river catchment at Jere, Kaduna State, Nigeria. Sci Res Essay 4:636–646

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim B, Sanders BF (2016) Dam-break flood model uncertainty assessment: case study of extreme flooding with multiple dam failures in Gangneung, South Korea. J Hydraul Eng 142:05016002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kovalenko S, Brown CJ, Akan C, Schonning A (2022) An examination of extreme floods, effects on land-use change and seasonality in the lower St. Johns River Basin, Florida using HSPF and statistical methods. Environ Earth Sci 81:87

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P, Debele SE, Sahani J, Rawat N, Marti-Cardona B, Alfieri SM, Basu B, Basu AS, Bowyer P, Charizopoulos N (2021) Nature-based solutions efficiency evaluation against natural hazards: Modelling methods, advantages and limitations. Sci Total Environ 784:147058

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Latrubesse EM, Park E, Sieh K, Dang T, Lin YN, Yun S-H (2020) Dam failure and a catastrophic flood in the Mekong basin (Bolaven Plateau), southern Laos, 2018. Geomorphology 362:107221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li W, Li Z, Ge W, Wu S (2019) Risk evaluation model of life loss caused by dam-break flood and its application. Water 11:1359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lyu Z, Chai J, Xu Z, Qin Y, Cao J (2019) A comprehensive review on reasons for tailings dam failures based on case history. Adv Civ Eng 2019:1–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Maganzani L (2023) Rivers and flood risk management in rural areas: some evidence from classical Roman law. Water Hist 15:125–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mallakpour I, AghaKouchak A, Sadegh M (2019) Climate-induced changes in the risk of hydrological failure of major dams in California. Geophys Res Lett 46:2130–2139

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Martínez-Retureta R, Aguayo M, Abreu NJ, Stehr A, Duran-Llacer I, Rodríguez-López L, Sauvage S, Sánchez-Pérez J-M (2021) Estimation of the climate change impact on the hydrological balance in basins of south-central chile. Water 13:794

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moniruzzaman M, Thakur PK, Kumar P, Ashraful Alam M, Garg V, Rousta I, Olafsson H (2020) Decadal urban land use/land cover changes and its impact on surface runoff potential for the Dhaka City and surroundings using remote sensing. Remote Sens 13:83

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Mudashiru RB, Sabtu N, Abustan I, Balogun W (2021) Flood hazard mapping methods: a review. J Hydrol 603:126846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mudashiru RB, Sabtu N, Abdullah R, Saleh A, Abustan I (2022) Optimality of flood influencing factors for flood hazard mapping: an evaluation of two multi-criteria decision-making methods. J Hydrol 612:128055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munyai RB, Nethengwe NS, Musyoki A (2019) An assessment of flood vulnerability and adaptation: a case study of Hamutsha-Muungamunwe village, Makhado municipality. Jàmbá J Disaster Risk Stud 11:1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Namara WG, Damisse TA, Tufa FG (2022) Application of HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS model for flood inundation mapping, the case of Awash Bello Flood Plain, Upper Awash River Basin, Oromiya Regional State, Ethiopia. Model Earth Syst Environ 8:1449–1460

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nastiti KD, Kim Y, Jung K, An H (2015) The application of rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model for inundation case in upper Citarum watershed, West Java-Indonesia. Proc Eng 125:166–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nkwunonwo U, Whitworth M, Baily B (2020) A review of the current status of flood modelling for urban flood risk management in the developing countries. Sci Afr 7:e00269

    Google Scholar 

  • Omofunmi O, Kolo J, Oladipo A, Diabana P, Ojo A (2017) A review on effects and control of seepage through earth-fill dam. Curr J Appl Sci Technol 22:1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ongdas N, Akiyanova F, Karakulov Y, Muratbayeva A, Zinabdin N (2020) Application of HEC-RAS (2D) for flood hazard maps generation for Yesil (Ishim) river in Kazakhstan. Water 12:2672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oseke FI-e, Anornu GK, Adjei KA, Eduvie MO (2021) Predicting the impact of climate change and the hydrological response within the Gurara reservoir catchment, Nigeria. J Water Land Dev 129–143

  • Piciullo L, Storrøsten EB, Liu Z, Nadim F, Lacasse S (2022) A new look at the statistics of tailings dam failures. Eng Geol 303:106657

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polemio M, Lollino P (2011) Failure of infrastructure embankments induced by flooding and seepage: a neglected source of hazard. Nat Hazard 11:3383–3396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rentschler J, Salhab M, Jafino BA (2022) Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries. Nat Commun 13:3527

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Salaudeen A, Shahid S, Ismail A, Adeogun BK, Ajibike MA, Bello A-AD, Salau OB (2023) Adaptation measures under the impacts of climate and land-use/land-cover changes using HSPF model simulation: Application to Gongola river basin, Nigeria. SciTotal Environ 858:159874

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sarchani S, Koutroulis AG (2022) Probabilistic dam breach flood modeling: the case of Valsamiotis dam in Crete. Nat Hazards 114:1763–1814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serdeczny O, Adams S, Baarsch F, Coumou D, Robinson A, Hare W, Schaeffer M, Perrette M, Reinhardt J (2017) Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Reg Environ Change 17:1585–1600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song X-P, Hansen MC, Stehman SV, Potapov PV, Tyukavina A, Vermote EF, Townshend JR (2018) Global land change from 1982 to 2016. Nature 560:639–643

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Swain SS, Mishra A, Sahoo B, Chatterjee C (2020) Water scarcity-risk assessment in data-scarce river basins under decadal climate change using a hydrological modelling approach. J Hydrol 590:125260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tarhule A, Woo MK (1998) Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern Nigeria. Int J Climatol A J R Meteorol Soc 18:1261–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tedla MG, Cho Y, Jun K (2021) Flood mapping from dam break due to peak inflow: a coupled rainfall-runoff and hydraulic models approach. Hydrology 8:89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toosi AS, Calbimonte GH, Nouri H, Alaghmand S (2019) River basin-scale flood hazard assessment using a modified multi-criteria decision analysis approach: a case study. J Hydrol 574:660–671

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tramblay Y, Villarini G, Zhang W (2020) Observed changes in flood hazard in Africa. Environ Res Lett 15:1040b1045

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tschiedel AdF, Paiva RCDd (2018) Uncertainty assessment in hydrodynamic modeling of floods generated by dam break. RBRH 23. https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.231820170074

  • Umaru A, Ogedengbe K, Omobowale M (2010) Structural failures of earth dams in Nigeria: a case study of Cham Dam in Gombe State. ARPN J Eng Appl Sci 5:47–52

    Google Scholar 

  • Urzică A, Mihu-Pintilie A, Stoleriu CC, Cîmpianu CI, Huţanu E, Pricop CI, Grozavu A (2021) Using 2D HEC-RAS modeling and embankment dam break scenario for assessing the flood control capacity of a multi-reservoir system (NE Romania). Water 13:57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Niekerk H, Viljoen M (2005) Causes and consequences of the Merriespruit and other tailings-dam failures. Land Degrad Dev 16:201–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wijayawardana N, Abenayake C, Jayasinghe A, Dias N (2023) An urban density-based runoff simulation framework to envisage flood resilience of cities. Urban Sci 7:17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y, Zhang LM (2009) Breaching parameters for earth and rockfill dams. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 135:1957–1970

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yilmaz K, Darama Y, Oruc Y, Melek AB (2023) Assessment of flood hazards due to overtopping and piping in Dalaman Akköprü Dam, employing both shallow water flow and diffusive wave equations. Nat Hazards, 117(1):979–1003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaborowski S, Kałuża T, Rybacki M, Radecki-Pawlik A (2023) Influence of river channel deflector hydraulic structures on lowland river roughness coefficient values: the Flinta river, Wielkopolska Province, Poland. Ecohydrol Hydrobiol 23:79–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Xu Y, Jia J (2009) Analysis of earth dam failures: a database approach. Georisk 3:184–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhong Q, Wang L, Chen S, Chen Z, Shan Y, Zhang Q, Ren Q, Mei S, Jiang J, Hu L (2021) Breaches of embankment and landslide dams-State of the art review. Earth Sci Rev 216:103597

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

The authors have not disclosed any funding.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria

    Al-Amin Danladi Bello, Abdullahi Sule Argungu, Aminu Tijjani Soron Dinki, Abdullahi Yahaya, Khalid Sulaiman & Nura Abdullahi

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Bauchi, Nigeria

    Abdulrazaq Salaudeen

Authors
  1. Al-Amin Danladi Bello
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Abdullahi Sule Argungu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Aminu Tijjani Soron Dinki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Abdullahi Yahaya
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Khalid Sulaiman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Abdulrazaq Salaudeen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Nura Abdullahi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Al-amin Danladi Bello and Abdullahi Sule Argungu conceptualized the manuscript and supervised the study, Aminu Tijjani Soron Dinki and Abdullahi Ibrahim wrote the main manuscript text, and Khalid Sulaiman, Abdulrazaq Salaudeen and Nura Idris prepared tables and figure. All the author reviewed the manuscript

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Al-Amin Danladi Bello.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors have not disclosed any competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bello, AA.D., Argungu, A.S., Dinki, A.T.S. et al. Dam break study and its flood risk in Gurara watershed-Nigeria under varied spatio-temporal conditions by integrating HSPF and HEC–RAS models. Environ Earth Sci 83, 136 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11425-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11425-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation