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A new method for dynamically estimating long-term seepage failure frequency for high concrete faced rockfill dams

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Abstract

Failure frequency of a dam varies greatly with reservoir water level and time. It is important but difficult to dynamically estimate failure frequency of high concrete faced rockfill dams (CFRDs) merely based on the probabilistic approach due to limited failure cases of high CFRDs. In this study, a new method is developed for dynamically estimating the long-term revolution of seepage failure frequency of high CFRDs by combining an analogical approach with the Bayesian approach. A simple and precise seepage generalized method and a parameter named defect parameter are introduced to provide the basis of comparison between the dam of interest and the accumulated database of high CFRDs. Using the cumulative probability distribution from the database, the correlation between annual seepage failure frequency and defect parameter is established. A high CFRD case in China with an operation history of slab breakage and reinforcement is selected as an example to illustrate the applicability of the new method. It is verified that the variation tendency of safety level of high CFRD is well simulated through the annual seepage failure frequency calculated by the newly proposed method.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant no. 2017YFC0404803); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 51578196); the IWHR Research and Development Support Program (Grant no. GE0145B562017); the Independent Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (Grant no. SKL2020ZY09); and the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (Grant no. IWHR-SKL-KF201811).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 20 West Chegongzhuang Rd., Haidian District, Beijing, 100048, China

    Gang Deng, Kui Cao, Yanfeng Wen & Yinqi Zhang

  2. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen University Town, Shenzhen, 518055, China

    Rui Chen & Zhongkui Chen

  3. China Harbour Engineering Company Limited, 9 Chunxiu Rd., Dongcheng District, Beijing, 100027, China

    Kui Cao

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  1. Gang Deng
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  2. Kui Cao
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  3. Rui Chen
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  4. Yanfeng Wen
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  5. Yinqi Zhang
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  6. Zhongkui Chen
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Correspondence to Rui Chen.

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Deng, G., Cao, K., Chen, R. et al. A new method for dynamically estimating long-term seepage failure frequency for high concrete faced rockfill dams. Environ Earth Sci 79, 247 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-08962-z

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