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Regional changes of climate extremes and its effect on rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

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Abstract

In this study, the regional variations of climate extremes and its possible impact on rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China were investigated. A total of 18 climate extremes indices (CEI) of rice-growing period (May–October) based on the daily climate records and rice yield data at 52 stations during 1961–2012 were calculated and analyzed. The main findings were as follows: (1) due to the remarked regional differences of climate extremes, Jiangsu could be divided into six climatic subregions: westernmost, northwest, north, southwest, south, and southeast corner; (2) trends of 18 indices in the six subregions using Mann–Kendall test indicated that Jiangsu was dominated by an obvious wetting and warming tendency, especially in the southern area; (3) correlation analysis between rice yield and CEI using first-difference and climate-induced yield method showed that the negative influences of precipitation extremes were more notable compared to temperature extremes; (4) P95 [precipitation due to very wet days (> 95th percentile)] should be selected as a key meteorological disasters indicator affecting rice yield in the northwest, north, southwest, and south Jiangsu; (5) the increase of P95 since 1990s was detected in most of Jiangsu, which would bring huge risks to rice growing.

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Acknowledgements

This paper was mainly supported by China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) (GYHY201506001-6), Jiangsu Province Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars (BK20170102), Open Fund of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology/Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (JKLAM1603, JKLAM1604), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (16KJB170008), Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique/China Meteorological Administration (AMF201507, AMF201608).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jin Huang, Fangmin Zhang, Limin Zhou & Zhenghua Hu

  2. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jin Huang & Zhenghua Hu

  3. China Meteorological Administration/Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou, 450003, China

    Ying Li

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  1. Jin Huang
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  2. Fangmin Zhang
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  3. Limin Zhou
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  4. Zhenghua Hu
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  5. Ying Li
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Correspondence to Fangmin Zhang.

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Huang, J., Zhang, F., Zhou, L. et al. Regional changes of climate extremes and its effect on rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China. Environ Earth Sci 77, 106 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7295-8

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