Abstract
Despite the belief that education is the great equalizer in American society, previous research has shown that the promises of educational accomplishments have not extended equally across racial/ethnic groups as minorities are less likely to matriculate to post-secondary education. Using data from the second follow-up and base year of the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002, we examine the impact of GPA and students’ expectations on the probability of post-secondary enrollment. Specifically, we assess the impact of low achievement on the probability of post-secondary enrollment across racial/ethnic groups. We find that low achievement acts as less of a barrier to post-secondary enrollment for minority students compared with their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Moreover, students with high expectations and low achievement experienced higher probabilities of post-secondary enrollment than students with low expectations and high achievement. Given that minority students are said to have higher expectations, we examine whether the interaction of expectations and achievement varies across racial/ethnic groups. While we did not uncover racial/ethnic differences for low-achieving students with high expectations, our findings suggest that expectations help propel all low-achieving students with high expectations into post-secondary enrollment. This study moves beyond the traditional black/white differences by including a number of racial/ethnic groups.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
This category includes students of Puerto Rican, Central American, South American, Cuban and Dominican origin.
This category includes students of Chinese, Filipino, Korean, Southeast Asian, South Asian, Japanese and the ELS: 2002 other Asian category origin students.
References
Alexander, K., Entwisle, D., & Bedinger, S. (1994). When expectations work: Race and Socioeconomic Differences in School Performance. Social Psychology Quarterly, 57(4), 283–299.
Allison, P. (2002). Missing data: Quantitative applications in the social sciences. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications USA.
An, B. (2010). The relations between race, family characteristics, and where students apply to college. Social Science Research, 39(2), 310–323.
Bohon, S., Johnson, M., & Gorman, B. (2006). College aspirations and expectations among Latino adolescents in the United States. Social Problems, 53(2), 207–225.
Bozick, R., Alexander, K., Entwisle, D., Dauber, S., & Kerr, K. (2010). Framing the future: Revisiting the place of educational expectations in status attainment. Social Forces, 88(5), 2027–2052.
Byun, S., & Park, H. (2012). The academic success of east Asian American youth: The role of shadow education. Sociology of Education, 85(1), 40–60.
Cameron, S. V., & Heckman, J. J. (2001). The dynamics of educational attainment for black hispanic, and white males. Journal of Political Economy, 109, 455–499.
Charles, C., Roscigno, V., & Torres, K. (2007). Racial inequality and college attendance: The mediating role of parental investments. Social Science Research, 36(1), 329–352.
DeBerard, M. S., Spielmans, G. I., & Julka, D. C. (2004). Predictors of academic achievement and retention among college freshmen: A longitudinal study. College Student Journal, 38(1), 66–80.
Downey, D. (2008). Black/white differences in school performance: The oppositional culture explanation. Annual Review of Sociology, 34(1), 107–126.
Downey, D., Ainsworth, J., & Qian, Z. (2009). Rethinking the attitude achievement paradox among blacks. Sociology of Education, 82(1), 1–19.
Downey, D., & Ainsworth-Darnell, J. (2002). The search for oppositional culture among black students. American Sociological Review, 67, 156–164.
Downey, D. B., Hippel, P. T., & Broh, B. A. (2004). Are schools the great equalizer? Cognitive inequality during the summer months and the school year. American Sociological Review, 69(5), 613–635.
Fryer, R., & Levitt, S. (2004). Understanding the black–white test score gap in the first two years of school. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, 447–464.
Fryer, R., & Levitt, S. (2006). The black–white test score gap through third grade. American Law and Economics Review, 86(2), 249–281.
Gose, B. (1999). Colleges look for ways to reverse a decline in enrollment of men. The Chronicle of Higher Education, 26, A73–A74.
Goyette, K. (2008). College for some to college for all: Social background, occupational expectations, and educational expectations over time”. Social Science Research, 37(2), 461–484.
Goyette, K., & Xie, Y. (1999). Education expectations of Asian American youths: Determinants and ethnic differences. Sociology of Education, 72(1), 22–36.
Hudson, L. (2003). Racial/ethnic differences in the path to a postsecondary credential. Educational Statistics Quarterly, 5(2), 129–133.
Ingels, S. J., Pratt D. J. , Wilson D., Burns L. J., Currivan D., Rogers J. E. & Hubbard-Bednasz S. (2007). Education Longitudinal Study of 2002: Base-year to second follow-up data file documentation (NCES 2008-347). US Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Kao, G., & Thompson, J. (2003). Racial and ethnic stratification in educational achievement and attainment. Annual Review of Sociology, 29(1), 417–442.
Kuh, G., Cruce, T. Y., Shoup, R., Kinzie, J., & Gonyea, R. (2008). Unmasking the effects of student engagement on first-year college grades and persistence. The Journal of Higher Education, 79(5), 540–563.
Lamont, M., & Lareau, A. (1988). Cultural capital: Allusions, gaps, and glissandos in recent theoretical developments. Sociological Theory, 6(2), 153–168.
Lee, K., Almonte, J. L. J., & Youn, M.-J. (2013). What to do next: An exploratory study of the post-secondary decisions of American students. Higher Education, 66(1), 1–16.
Lee, V., & Burkam, D. (2002). Inequality at the starting gate: Social background differences in achievement as children begin school. Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute.
Long, B. T., & Kurlanender, M. (2009). Do community colleges provide a viable pathway to a baccalaureate degree? Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 31(1), 30–53.
Manski, C. (1990). The use of intentions data to predict behavior: A best-case analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85(412), 934–940.
Mickelson, R. (1990). The attitude achievement paradox, among blacks adolescents. Sociology of Education, 63(1), 44–61.
Monaghan, D. B., Attewell P. (2014). The community college route to the bachelor’s degree. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. doi: 10.3102/0162373714521865.
Morgan, S. (2002). Modeling preparatory commitment and non-repeatable decisions: information processing, preference formation, and educational attainment. Rationality and Society, 14(4), 387–429.
National Center for Education Statistics. (2010). Condition of education 2010. Washington: US Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement.
Ogbu, J. (1978). Minority education and caste: The American system in cross-cultural perspective. New York: Academic Press.
Ramist, L. (1984). Predictive validity of the ATP tests. The college board technical handbook for the scholastic aptitude test and achievement tests. New York: College Entrance Examination Board.
Reynolds, C. L. (2012). Where to attend? Estimating the effect of beginning college at a two-year institution. Economics of Education Review, 31(4), 345–362.
Reynolds, J., & Pemberton, J. (2001). Rising college expectations among youth in the United States: A comparison of the 1979 and 1997 NLSY. The Journal of Human Resources, 36(4), 703–726.
Rosenbaum, J. (2011). The complexities of college for all: Beyond fairy-tale dreams. Sociology of Education, 84(2), 113–117.
Sandefur, G., Meier, A., & Campbell, M. (2006). Family resources, social capital, and college attendance. Social Science Research, 35(2), 525–553.
Shernoff, D. J., & Schmidt, J. A. (2008). Further evidence of an engagement—Achievement paradox among US high school students. Journal Youth Adolescence, 37, 564–580.
Spera, C., Wentzel, K., & Matto, H. (2008). Parental aspirations for their children’s educational attainment: Relations to ethnicity, parental education, children’s academic performance, and parental perceptions of school climate. Journal Youth Adolescence, 38(8), 1140–1152.
Strayhorn, T. (2009). Different folks, different hopes: The educational aspirations of black males in urban, suburban, and rural high schools. Urban Education, 44(6), 710–731.
Suizzo, M.-A., & Stapleton, L. (2007). Home-based parental involvement in young children’s education: Examining the effects of maternal education across US ethnic groups. Educational Psychology, 27(4), 533–556.
Trusty, J. (2002). African American’s educational expectations: Longitudinal causal models for women and men. Journal of Counseling and Development, 80(3), 332–345.
United States Census Bureau. (2008). An older and more diverse nation by midcentury. Press release Thursday August 14, 2008. Washington, DC, US Department of Commerce.
Uwah, C., McMahon, G., & Furlow, C. (2008). School belonging, educational aspirations, and academic self-efficacy among African American male high school students: Implications for school counselors. Professional School Counseling, 11(5), 296–305.
Willingham, W., & Breland, H. (1982). Personal qualities and college admissions. New York: College Entrance Examination Board.
Yan, W., & Lin, Q. (2005). Parent involvement and mathematics achievement: Contrast across racial and ethnic groups. Journal of Educational Research, 99(2), 116–127.
Zhang, Y., Haddad, E., Torres, B., & Chen, C. (2011). The reciprocal relationships among parents’ expectations, adolescents’ expectations, and adolescents’ achievement: A two wave longitudinal analysis of the NELS data. Journal Youth Adolescence, 40(4), 479–489.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bates, L.A., Anderson, P.D. Do Expectations Make the Difference? A Look at the Effect of Educational Expectations and Academic Performance on Enrollment in Post-Secondary Education. Race Soc Probl 6, 249–261 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12552-014-9126-1
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12552-014-9126-1