Abstract
This study intended to analyze the rainfall trends for seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter) and annual rainfall from 1980 to 2021 for the small homogenous region of Malda district in West Bengal, India using Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall (PWMK), Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPWMK), and the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). For attaining an unbiased result different trend detection approaches were compared in this study. To determine rainfall variability, the Coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated, and the Rainfall Variability Index (RVI) was used to standardize the rainfall departure. The outcomes of the MK test demonstrated that out of a total of 45 series 13 series showed significant trends out of which 12 series had significant negative trends at 90% to 99% significance level. As per the results of MMK, 14 series exhibited significant trends out of which 13 series had significant negative trends at 90–99% significance level. Only 11 series in PWMK showed significant trends with 10 significantly negative trends at 90–99% significance level. In the TFPWMK test, 14 series showed significant trends with 11 series had significant negative trends at 90–99% significance level. As per ITA result, 36 series had significant trends out of which 11 were positively significant at a significance level of 99% and 25 series had negative trends at 90–99% significance level. Based on the results of the comparative techniques the ITA test seemed to be the best performing technique for the study area. The results of the CV showed that the maximum rainfall variations occurred in winter and annual rainfall. The RI revealed that the post-monsoon period experienced the highest number of negative departures of rainfall. The results of this study may help local and regional administrators to understand the risk of climate change and variability in this homogenous region.
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All the data are which are evaluated during this study are included in this manuscript.
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Acknowledgements
We are thankful to Mr. Kamakhya Bose (Office of Deputy Director of Agriculture (Administration), Malda district, Govt. in West Bengal) to provide rainfall data.
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Roy, T., Lepcha, K. Analysis of rainfall variability and trend in a small homogenous region of West Bengal in Malda district. Arab J Geosci 16, 595 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11697-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11697-3