Analysis of projected temperature changes over Saudi Arabia in the twenty-first century

Abstract

An analysis of surface air temperature changes over Saudi Arabia is presented using the Climate Wizard Tool. Projections of temperature departures from four global circulation models (GCMs) under three emission scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B, and B1) were used in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out for two future time periods: mid-century (2040–2069) and end-century (2070–2099). Results indicate positive departures throughout Saudi Arabia with the greatest warming generally focussed on the central region. A clear transition to a hotter climate from the mid-century to end-century was evident from the results. Analysis of projected temperature departures at four locations, namely Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam, and Jazan, revealed that Riyadh is likely to experience the highest warming with projected departures under A2 scenario exceeding 3.5 and 5.5 °C for the mid-century and end-century, respectively. Results of ensemble analysis indicate that, under A2 scenario, 80 % of the models project an increase of 3 °C for the mid-century and 5 °C for the end-century period. About 20 % of the models indicated increases, under the conservative B1 scenario, of 1.67 and 2.24 °C for the mid-century and end-century periods, respectively. Among the four models, the highest and the lowest departures were generally projected by the CGCM3.1 and CSIROMk3.0 models, respectively. Of the three emission scenarios, A2 tends to force greater warming than the other two scenarios. With significant warming projected for mid-century as well as end-century, socioeconomic systems in Saudi Arabia will face tremendous pressure. Urgent measures are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate the impacts of enhanced warming. The results presented herein could provide valuable aid to policy makers in formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change in Saudi Arabia.