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Belief bias, conflict detection, and logical complexity

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Abstract

People’s prior beliefs often lead them to make biased responses that violate logical rules in reasoning tasks. Conflict detection studies have found that biased reasoners can detect the conflict between heuristic beliefs and logical rules despite their ultimately biased responses, leading to the proposal of logical intuition. However, these studies have mainly used simple single-model reasoning tasks, and the generalization of conflict detection research and the boundary conditions of logical intuition still need to be clarified. The current study explores this issue directly by manipulating logical complexity through the number of mental models. Both response time and response confidence data found that reasoners took more time to respond and had lower confidence in their responses when they incorrectly solved conflict problems compared to correctly solving no-conflict problems. Furthermore, none of these differences were influenced by the number of mental models. The results suggest that the biased reasoners were not blind heuristic performers in complex three-model problems and that they at least detected that their heuristic beliefs were problematic. Moreover, there is no difference in conflict detection between single-model and three-model problems, indicating that logical complexity does not affect the conflict detection process. Overall, the current study indicates that successful conflict detection is not specific to simple tasks, extending the scope of conflict detection and logical intuition.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jianyong Yang.

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Ethics approval

This study was performed in line with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the School of Psychology, Jiangxi Normal University. 

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Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study. 

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No conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

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Appendices

Appendix 1 Overview of the problem content

Model number

Conflict

Premise 1

Premise 2

Conclusion

Single

(Valid form: B-C, A-B premises with A-C conclusion)

No-conflict

(Believable-valid)

All X are creatures

All dolphins are X

Therefore, all dolphins are creatures

All X are balls

All basketballs are X

Therefore, all basketballs are balls

Conflict

(Unbelievable-valid)

All X are red

All colors are X

Therefore, all colors are red

All X are females

All human are X

Therefore, all human are females

Single

(Invalid form: B-C, A-B premises with C-A conclusion)

Conflict

(Believable-invalid)

All X are pork

All meat is X

Therefore, all pork is meat

All X are colas

All drinks are X

Therefore, all colas are drinks

No-conflict

(Unbelievable-invalid)

All X are eggs

All chicken eggs are X

Therefore, all eggs are chicken eggs

All X are food

All breads are X

Therefore, all foods are breads

Three

(Valid form: B-C, A-B premises with A-C conclusion)

No-conflict

(Believable-valid)

No X are apples

Some fruits are X

Therefore, some fruits are not apples

No X are poplars

Some trees are X

Therefore, some trees are not poplars

Conflict

(Unbelievable-valid)

No X are animals

Some tigers are X

Therefore, some tigers are not animals

No X are fish

Some carp are X

Therefore, some carp are not fish

Three

(Invalid form: B-C, A-B premises with C-A conclusion)

Conflict

(Believable-invalid)

No X are flowers

Some osmanthus are X

Therefore, some flowers are not osmanthus

No X are insects

Some ants are X

Therefore, some insects are not ants

No-conflict

(Unbelievable-invalid)

No X are pigeons

Some birds are X

Therefore, some pigeons are not birds

No X are cabbages

Some vegetables are X

Therefore, some cabbages are not vegetables

Appendix 2 The accuracy analysis of the reasoners included in the conflict detection analysis

As Appendix Fig. 3 shows, there was a main effect of Conflict, with higher accuracy for no-conflict (M = 0.91, SE = 0.02) than conflict (M = 0.41, SE = 0.03) problems, F (1,38) = 179.64, p < 0.001, η2p = 0.83. While we found no significant effect of Model, F (1,38) = 1.59, p = 0.215, η2p = 0.04, and, critically, no significant interaction between Conflict and Model, F (1,38) < 1.

Fig. 3
figure 3

The accuracy of the reasoners included in the conflict detection analysis. Error bars are standard errors

In contrast to the overall accuracy analysis, the accuracy results of the reasoners included in the conflict detection analysis did not reveal a main effect of Model. To verify whether our logical complexity manipulation was successful in these reasoners, we also performed a supplementary analysis of the response time (s) of these reasoners. As Appendix Fig. 4 shows, there was a main effect of Conflict, with more response time for conflict (M = 18.49, SE = 1.53) than no-conflict (M = 14.18, SE = 0.91) problems, F (1,38) = 18.06, p < 0.001, η2p = 0.32. Moreover, a main effect of Model showed that participants took more time to solve three-model problems (M = 18.90, SE = 1.59) than single-model problems (M = 13.78, SE = 0.97), F (1,38) = 16.51, p < 0.001, η2p = 0.30. While no significant interaction between Conflict and Model was found, F (1,38) < 1. Thus, the accuracy and response time results suggest that the logical complexity manipulation remains successful in these reasoners.

Fig. 4
figure 4

The response time of the reasoners included in the conflict detection analysis. Error bars are standard errors

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Yang, J., Hu, Z., Zhu, D. et al. Belief bias, conflict detection, and logical complexity. Curr Psychol 43, 2641–2649 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-023-04562-9

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