Abstract
In this paper we employ a new Bayesian approach within a cointegrating regression framework along the lines of Breitung (J Bus Econ Stat 19:331–340, 2001). We extend this fully to the case of panel data framework with general cross-sectional dependence. We argue that our Bayesian technique does not depend on asymptotic critical values and in our empirical application we do find strong evidence of nonlinear cointegrated relationships between local (SO2 and NOX) and global (CO2) emissions with the level of economic growth.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The tests are approximately correctly sized for small n and T greater than 30 and large n for T greater than 15.
To preserve space the results are available upon request.
We greatly thank an anonymous reviewer of this journal for raising this.
References
Balke, N.S., Fomby, T.B.: Threshold cointegration. Int. Econ. Rev. 38, 627–645 (1997)
Bec, F., Rahbek, A.: Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments. Econ. J. 7, 628–651 (2004)
Breitung, J.: Rank tests for nonlinear cointegration relationships. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 19, 331–340 (2001)
Breitung., J., Das, S.: Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence. Statistica Neerlandica 59(4), 414–433 (2005)
Chang, Y., Park, J.Y.: Index models with integrated time series. J. Econ. 114, 73–106 (2003)
Choi, I., Saikkonen, P.: Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions. Econ. J. 7, 341–365 (2004)
Choi, I., Saikkonen, P.: Tests for nonlinear cointegration. Econ. Theory 26, 682–709 (2010)
Desbordes, R., Verardi, V.: Refitting the Kuznets curve. Economics Letters 116, 258–261 (2012)
Enders, W., Granger, C.W.J.: Unit-root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 16, 304–312 (1998)
Enders, W., Siklos, P.L.: Cointegration and threshold adjustment. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 19, 166–177 (2001)
Girolami, M., Calderhead, B.: Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. J. R. Stat. Soc. 73(2), 123–214 (2011)
Hansen, B.E., Seo, B.: Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error correction models. J. Econ. 110, 293–318 (2002)
Hong, S.H., Wagner, M.: Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Economics Series 224. Institute for Advanced Studies (2008)
Millimet, D., List, J., Stengos, T.: The environmental Kuznets curve: Real progress or misspecified models? Rev. Econ. Stat. 85(4), 1038–1047 (2003)
Pedroni, P.: Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 61, 653–670 (1999)
Pesaran, M.H.: A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. J. Appl. Econom. 22(2), 265–312 (2007)
Saikkonen, P.: Stability of regime switching error correction models under linear cointegration. Econ. Theory 24, 294–318 (2008)
Saikkonen, P., Choi, I.: Cointegrating smooth transition regressions. Econ. Theory 20, 301–340 (2004)
Shi, H., Worden, K., Cross, E.J.: A nonlinear cointegration approach with applications to structural health monitoring. J. Phys: Conf. Ser. 744, 012025 (2016)
Verdinelli, I., Wasserman, L.: Computing Bayes factors using a generalization of the Savage–Dickey density ratio. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90, 614–618 (1995)
Westerlund, J.: Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 69, 709–748 (2007)
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the Editor (H. Folmer) and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments on an earlier version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Polemis, M.L., Tsionas, M.G. Bayesian nonlinear panel cointegration: an empirical application to the EKC hypothesis. Lett Spat Resour Sci 12, 113–120 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-019-00230-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-019-00230-4