Abstract
Urban shrinkage has led to urban decline and depopulation in Western countries. With the development of urbanization in China, urban shrinkage also appeared in China and gradually spread in many cities. The study of urban shrinkage helps to provide an important theoretical basis for the development of China's new urbanization and restore the vitality of urban development. This study used China's population data at a scale of 1 km from 2000 to 2015 to identify population increases and decreases over a long time series. Based on microscopic population changes in the city, the identification and characteristic analysis of urban shrinkage were performed, and the results were correlated with three modes of urban expansion in order to explore the relationship between the intensity of urban shrinkage and the pattern of spatial expansion. The results were as follows: (1) from 2000 to 2015, 80% of 366 cities in China experienced varying degrees of shrinkage, of which moderate and low shrinkage accounted for 64%. In addition, some regions such as northeast China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and southwest China have shown the spatial agglomeration of urban shrinkage phenomena. (2) Of the 291 cities where urban shrinkage has occurred in China, 99% experienced a weak shrinkage, while only 1% experienced a moderate shrinkage. In northern China, center shrinkage is the main pattern, while cities in southern China had an alternating distribution of marginal and central shrinkage. The type of urban shrinkage may be related to the speed of local economic development. Excessive speed of economic development and unreasonable mode of urban spatial expansion may lead to marginal shrinkage. (3) The expansion pattern of construction land in China from 2000 to 2015 was mainly outlying expansion, and population shrinkage was the most significant in this expansion mode. The compactness of the construction land expansion in China is inversely proportional to the intensity of the population shrinkage, and the lower the compactness, the stronger the intensity of the population shrinkage.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
Data available upon request.
References
Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicators of spatial association—LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93–115.
Bhaduri, B., Bright, E., Coleman, P., et al. (2007). LandScan USA: A high-resolution geospatial and temporal modeling approach for population distribution and dynamics. GeoJournal, 69(1–2), 103–117.
Blanco, H., Alberti, M., Olshansky, R., et al. (2009). Shaken, shrinking, hot, impoverished and informal: Emerging research agendas in planning. Progress in Planning, 72(4), 195–250.
Calka, B., & Bielecka, E. (2019). Reliability analysis of LandScan gridded population data. The case study of Poland. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(5), 222.
Desmet, K., Gomes, J. F., & Ortuno-Ortin, I. (2020). The geography of linguistic diversity and the provision of public goods. Journal of Development Economics, 143, 102384.
Dong, B., Ye, Y., You, S., Zheng, Q., Huang, L., Zhu, C., Tong, C., Li, S., Li, Y., & Wang, K. (2021). Identifying and classifying shrinking cities using long-term continuous night-time light time series. Remote Sensing, 13(16), 3142.
Ellman, T. (1997). Infil:The cure for spraw-Arizona lssue Analysis (Vol. 146). The Goldwater Institute.
Forman, R. T. T. (1995). Land mosaics: The ecology of landscapes and regions. Cambridge University Press.
Gong, P., Zhang, S., et al. (2022). The evolutionary characteristics and spatial-temporal pattern of China’s UrbanShrinkage from the perspective of population: Based on the analysis of the seventh national census bulletin data. Population & Economics, 03, 1–15. In Chinese with English abstract.
Haase, A., Rink, D., Grossmann, K., Bernt, M., & Mykhnenko, V. (2014). Conceptualizing urban shrinkage. Environment and Planning A, 46(7), 1519–1534.
Han, M., Sun, Y. N., Xu, S. G., et al. (2005). Study on changes of marsh landscape pattern in Zhalong wetland assisted by RS and GlS. Progress in Geography, 24(6), 42–49.
Hollander, J. (2009). Polluted and dangerous: America’s worst abandoned properties and what can be done about them. University of Vemont Press.
Iwasaki, Y. (2021). Shrinkage of regional cities in Japan: Analysis of changes in densely inhabited districts. Cities, 113, 103168.
Jiang, Z., Zhai, W., Meng, X., & Long, Y. (2020). Identifying shrinking cities with NPP-VIIRS nightlight data in China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(4), 04020034.
Karp, D. N., Bagchi-Sen, S., & Rogerson, P. (2022). Not all shrinking places are similar: The variegated nature of population decline in the United States. Applied Geography, 138, 102581.
Li, Z., & Long, Y. (2019). Analysis of the variation in quality of street space in shrinking cities based. In Shrinking cities in China: The other facet of urbanization (p. 141).
Li, H., & Mykhnenko, V. (2018). Urban shrinkage with Chinese characteristics. The Geographical Journal, 184(4), 398–412.
Li, X., Du, Z. W., et al. (2015). The spatial distribution and mechanism of City shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta. Modern Urban Research, 09, 36–43. In Chinese with English abstract.
Li, H., Lo, K., & Zhang, P. (2020). Population shrinkage in resource-dependent cities in China: Processes, patterns and drivers. Chinese Geographical Science, 30(1), 1–15.
Liu, X., Ma, L., Li, X., Ai, B., Li, S., & He, Z. (2014). Simulating urban growth by integrating landscape expansion index (lei) and cellular automata. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 28, 148–163.
Liu, Z., Liu, S., & Song, Y. (2020). Understanding urban shrinkage in China: Developing a multi-dimensional conceptual model and conducting empirical examination from 2000 to 2010. Habitat International, 104, 102256.
Long, Y., & Wu, K. (2016). Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 48(2), 220–222.
Long, Y., Luo, S. Q., et al. (2022). Research on the dynamic evolution of the landscape pattern in the urban fringe area of Wuhan from 2000 to 2020. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 11(9), 483–483.
Lym, Y. (2021). Exploring dynamic process of regional shrinkage in Ohio: A Bayesian perspective on population shifts at small-area levels. Cities, 115, 103228.
Ma, Q., Gong, Z., Kang, J., Tao, R., & Dang, A. (2020a). Measuring functional urban shrinkage with multi-source geospatial big data: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megaregion. Remote Sensing, 12(16), 2513.
Ma, Z., Li, C., & Zhang, J. (2020b). Understanding urban shrinkage from a regional perspective: Case study of northeast China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 146(4), 05020025.
Martinez-Fernandez, C., Weyman, T., Fol, S., Audirac, I., Cunningham-Sabot, E., Wiechmann, T., & Yahagi, H. (2016). Shrinking cities in Australia, Japan, Europe and the USA: From a global process to local policy responses. Progress in Planning, 105, 1–48.
Meng, L., & Si, W. T. (2022). The driving mechanism of urban land expansion from 2005 to 2018: The case of Yangzhou, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(23), 15821–15821.
Meng, X. F., Ma, S., Xiang, W. Y., Kan, C. C., Wu, K., & Long, Y. (2021a). Classification of shrinking cities in China using Baidu big data. Acta Geographica Sinica, 76, 2477–2488. In Chinese with English abstract.
Meng, X., Jiang, Z., Wang, X., & Long, Y. (2021b). Shrinking cities on the globe: Evidence from LandScan 2000–2019. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 53(6), 1244–1248.
Moran, P. A. P. (1950). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1/2), 17–23.
Oswalt, P., & Rieniets, T. (Eds.). (2006). Atlas of Shrinking Cities. Hatje Cantz.
Pallagst, K., Fleschurz, R., Nothof, S., & Uemura, T. (2021). Shrinking cities: Implications for planning cultures? Urban Studies, 58(1), 164–181.
Popper, D. E., & Popper, F. J. (2002). Small can be beautiful: Coming to terms with decline. Planning, 68(7), 20–23.
Richardson, H. W., & Nam, C. W. (2014). Shrinking cities: A global perspective. Routledge.
Sun, L., Chen, J., Li, Q., & Huang, D. (2020). Dramatic uneven urbanization of large cities throughout the world in recent decades. Nature Communications, 11(1), 1–9.
Tong, Y., Liu, W., Li, C., Zhang, J., & Ma, Z. (2021). Understanding patterns and multilevel influencing factors of small town shrinkage in Northeast China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 68, 102811.
Wang, Y. (2019). Urban shrinkage in China: A look at three Northeast China Cities. In Y. Long & S. Gao (Eds.), Shrinking cities in China. The urban book series. Springer.
Wang, J., Yang, Z., & Qian, X. (2020). Driving factors of urban shrinkage: Examining the role of local industrial diversity. Cities, 99, 102646.
Wang, Q., Liu, X. Y., et al. (2021). Spatial structure, city size and innovation performance of Chinese cities. China Industrial Economics., 05, 114–132. In Chinese with English abstract.
Wiechmann, T. (2008). Errors expected- aligning urban strategy with demographic uncertainty in shrinking cities. International Planning Studies, 13(4), 431–446.
Wiechmann, T., & Pallagst, K. M. (2012). Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36(2), 261–280.
Wilson, E. H., Hurd, J. D., Civco, D. L., et al. (2003). Development of a geospatial model to quantify, describe and map urban growth. Remote Sensing of Environment, 86, 275–285.
Wu, K. (2019). Urban shrinkage in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta: Pattern, trajectory and factors. In Y. Long & S. Gao (Eds.), Shrinking cities in China. The urban book series. Springer.
Wu, K., & Qi, W. (2021). Shrinking cities: Misunderstandings, identification, and reflections. Geographical Research, 40(1), 213–229. In Chinese with English abstract.
Wu, K., & Sun, D. (2017). Progress in urban shrinkage research. Economic Geography, 37(11), 59–67. In Chinese with English abstract.
Yang, D. F., Long, Y., et al. (2015). Losing population with expanding space: Paradox of urban shrinkage in China. Modern Urban Research, 09, 20–25. In Chinese with English abstract.
Yang, Y., Wu, J., Wang, Y., Huang, Q., & He, C. (2021). Quantifying spatiotemporal patterns of shrinking cities in urbanizing China: A novel approach based on time-series nighttime light data. Cities, 118, 103346.
Zhang, H. Y. (2011). Reflection of western urbanization theory and theoretical model constructionism of Chinese local urbanization. Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences, 287(09), 1-10+15,1. In Chinese with English abstract.
Zhang, W., & Pei, M. (2022). Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urban shrinkage in China: A multi-dimensional perspective. Tropical Geography, 42(05), 762–772. In Chinese with English abstract.
Zhou, Y., Li, C. G., Ma, Z. P., et al. (2019). Identification of shrinkage and growth patterns of a shrinking City in China based on nighttime light data: A case study of Yichun. Sustainability, 11(24), 6906.
Zhou, Y., Li, C., Zheng, W., Rong, Y., & Liu, W. (2021). Identification of urban shrinkage using NPP-VIIRS night time light data at the county level in China. Cities, 118, 103373.
Funding
This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42001334).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
He, Q., Yan, M. & Wu, J. Characteristics of Population Shrinkage in Inner Urban China and Correlations with Urban Growth Patterns. Appl. Spatial Analysis 16, 1317–1343 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09511-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09511-4