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A simulation-based probabilistic design method for arctic sea transport systems

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Abstract

When designing an arctic cargo ship, it is necessary to consider multiple stochastic factors. This paper evaluates the merits of a simulation-based probabilistic design method specifically developed to deal with this challenge. The outcome of the paper indicates that the incorporation of simulations and probabilistic design parameters into the design process enables more informed design decisions. For instance, it enables the assessment of the stochastic transport capacity of an arctic ship, as well as of its long-term ice exposure that can be used to determine an appropriate level of ice-strengthening. The outcome of the paper also indicates that significant gains in transport system cost-efficiency can be obtained by extending the boundaries of the design task beyond the individual vessel. In the case of industrial shipping, this allows for instance the consideration of port-based cargo storage facilities allowing for temporary shortages in transport capacity and thus a reduction in the required fleet size / ship capacity.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway

    Bergström Martin & Erikstad Stein Ove

  2. Department of Ship Structural Design and Analysis, Technical University of Hamburg, Hamburg, D-21073, Germany

    Ehlers Sören

Authors
  1. Bergström Martin
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  2. Erikstad Stein Ove
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  3. Ehlers Sören
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Correspondence to Bergström Martin.

Additional information

Foundation item: Supported by the MAROFF Competence Building Project Funded by the Research Council of Norway on “Holistic Risk-Based Design For Sustainable Arctic Sea Transport”

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Martin, B., Ove, E.S. & Sören, E. A simulation-based probabilistic design method for arctic sea transport systems. J. Marine. Sci. Appl. 15, 349–369 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11804-016-1379-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11804-016-1379-1

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