Abstract
The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alamá-Sabater L, Márquez-Ramos L, Navarro-Azorín J M et al., 2015. A two-methodology comparison study of a spatial gravity model in the context of interregional trade flows. Applied Economics, 47(14): 1481–1493. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.997929
Baltagi B H, Egger P, 2016. Estimation of structural gravity quantile regression models. Empirical Economics, 50(1): 5–15. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0956-5
Black W, 1983. A generalization of destination effects in spatial interaction modeling. Economic Geography, 59(1): 16–34. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/143759
Black W R, 1995. Spatial interaction modeling using artificial neural networks. Journal of Transport Geography, 3(3): 159–166. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0966-6923(95)00013-S
Casetti E, 1981. A catastrophe model of regional dynamics. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 71(4): 572–579. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1981.tb01376.x
Chun Y W, Griffith D A, 2011. Modeling network autocorrelation in space-time migration flow data: an eigenvector spatial filtering approach. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 101(3): 523–536. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2011.561070
Chung C P, 2018. What are the strategic and economic implications for South Asia of China’s Maritime Silk Road initiative?. The Pacific Review, 31(3): 315–332. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1375000
Clarke G, Langley R, Cardwell W, 1998. Empirical applications of dynamic spatial interaction models. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 22(2): 157–184. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0198-9715(98)00021-0
Clinch J P, O’Neill E, 2009. Applying spatial economics to national spatial planning. Regional Studies, 43(2): 157–178. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400701808873
Cuccia T, Guccio C, Rizzo I, 2017. UNESCO sites and performance trend of Italian regional tourism destinations: a two-stage DEA window analysis with spatial interaction. Tourism Economics, 23(2): 316–342. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616656266
Curran D, 2012. British regional growth and sectoral trends: global and local spatial econometric approaches. Applied Economics, 44(17): 2187–2201. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.562170
Curry L, 1972. A spatial analysis of gravity flows. Regional Studies, 6(2): 131–147. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09595237200185141
Dąbrowski M, Musiałkowska I, Polverari L, 2018. EU-China and EU-Brazil policy transfer in regional policy. Regional Studies, 52(9): 1169–1180. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2018.1431389
Dong S C, Li Z H, Li Y et al., 2015. Resources, environment and economic patterns and sustainable development modes of the silk road economic belt. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 6(2): 65–72. doi: https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2015.02.001
Fan Zhaobin, Zhang Ruohan, Liu Xiaotong et al., 2016. China’s outward FDI efficiency along the belt and road: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model. China Agricultural Economic Review, 8(3): 455–479. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-11-2015-0158
Fischer M M, Reismunn M, 2002. A methodology for neural spatial interaction modeling. Geographical Analysis, 34(3): 207–228. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.2002.tb01085.x
Fischer M M, Reggiani A, 2005. Spatial interaction models: from the gravity to the neural network approach. Urban Dynamics and Growth: Advances in Urban Economics, 266: 319–346. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/s0573-8555(2005)0000266012
Fotheringham A S, 1983. A new set of spatial-interaction models: the theory of competing destinations. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 15(1): 15–36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518x8301500103
Frachetti M D, Smith C E, Traub C M et al., 2017. Nomadic ecology shaped the highland geography of Asia’s Silk Roads. Nature, 543(7644): 193–198. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21696
Godement F, 2015. Europe scrambles to benefit from China’s 21st-Century Silk Road. Global Asia, 10(3): 34–38.
Gordon I, 2010. Entropy, variety, economics, and spatial interaction. Geographical Analysis, 42(4): 446–471. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.2010.00802.x
Griffith D A, 1982. Dynamic characteristics of spatial economic systems. Economic Geography, 58(2): 177–196. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/143795
Gui Q C, Liu C L, Du D B, 2019. The structure and dynamic of scientific collaboration network among countries along the Belt and Road. Sustainability, 11(19): 5187. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195187
Hafeez M, Yuan C H, Strohmaier D et al., 2018. Does finance affect environmental degradation: evidence from One Belt and One Road Initiative region?. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(10): 9579–9592. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1317-7
Hermes T R, Frachetti M D, Bullion E A et al., 2018. Urban and nomadic isotopic niches reveal dietary connectivities along Central Asia’s Silk Roads. Scientific Reports, 8(1): 5177. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22995-2
Hong P F, 2016. Jointly building the ‘Belt and Road’ towards the sustainable development goals. New York: Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Hu G H, Lau C K M, Lu Z et al., 2018. Why participate in the ‘One Belt and One Road’ Initiative? An income convergence approach. The Singapore Economic Review. doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590818500297
Huang Yiping, 2016. Understanding China’s Belt & Road Initiative: motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review, 40: 314–321. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.07.007
Jing F, 2005. UNESCO’s efforts in identifying the World Heritage significance of the Silk Road. In: 15th ICOMOS General Assembly and International Symposium: Monuments and Sites in Their Setting-Conserving Cultural Heritage in Changing Townscapes and Landscapes. Xi’an, China.
Kolosov V A, Dong S C, Portyakov V Y et al., 2017. The Chinese initiative ‘the belt and road’: a geographical perspective. Geography, Environment, Sustanability, 10(1): 5–20. doi: https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2017-10-1-5-20
LeSage J P, Pace R K, 2008. Spatial econometric modeling of origin-destination flows. Journal of Regional Science, 48(5): 941–967. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2008.00573.x
Li F, Liu Q, Dong S et al., 2018. Agricultural development status and key cooperation directions between China and countries along ‘the Belt and Road’. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 190: 012058. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/190/1/012058
Li Fujia, Liu Qian, Dong Suocheng et al., 2019a. Investment environment assessment and strategic policy for subjects of federation in Russia. Chinese Geographical Science, 29(5): 887–904. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-019-1051-1
Li Linyue, Sun Zhixian, Long Xiang, 2019b. An empirical analysis of night-time light data based on the gravity model. Applied Economics, 51(8): 797–814. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1523612
Li Shan, Wang Zheng, Zhong Zhangqi, 2012. Gravity model for tourism spatial interaction: basic form, parameter estimation, and applications. Acta Geographica Sinica, 67(4): 526–544. (in Chinese)
Liao H, Huang X M, Vidmer A et al., 2018. Economic complexity based recommendation enhance the efficiency of the belt and road initiative. Entropy, 20(9): 718. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/e20090718
Liu C L, Wang J Q, Zhang H, 2018a. Spatial heterogeneity of ports in the global maritime network detected by weighted ego network analysis. Maritime Policy and Management, 45(1): 89–104. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2017.1345019.
Liu C L, Wang J Q, Zhang H et al., 2018b. Mapping the hierarchical structure of the global shipping network by weighted ego network analysis. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 10(1): 6386. doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSTL.2018.10008535.
Liu C L, Xu J Q, Zhang H, 2019. Competitiveness or complementarity? A dynamic network analysis of international agri-trade along the Belt and Road. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 1–26. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-019-093075
Liu Haimeng, Fang Chuanglin, Miao Yi et al., 2018c. Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950–2050. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(7): 919–936. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-018-1513-x
Liu Weidong, 2015. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes. Progress in Geography, 34(5): 538–544. (in Chinese)
Matyas L, 1997. Proper econometric specification of the gravity model. World Economy, 20(3): 363–368. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00074
Miller H J, Wentz E A, 2003. Representation and spatial analysis in geographic information systems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93(3): 574–594. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8306.9303004
Murphy A B, O’Loughlin J, 2009. New horizons for regional geography. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 50(3): 241–251. doi: https://doi.org/10.2747/1539-7216.50.3.241
Nijkamp P, Reggiani A, 1988. Dynamic spatial interaction models: new directions. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 20(11): 1449–1460. doi: https://doi.org/10.1068/a201449
O’Kelly M E, 2010. Entropy-based spatial interaction models for trip distribution. Geographical Analysis, 42(4): 472–487. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.2010.00803.x
Ord J K, Getis A, 1995. Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: distributional issues and an application. Geographical Analysis, 27(4): 286–306. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00912.x
Parr J B, 2014. The regional economy, spatial structure and regional urban systems. Regional Studies, 48(12): 1926–1938. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2013.799759
Pavlićević D, Kratz A, 2018. Testing the China Threat paradigm: China’s high-speed railway diplomacy in Southeast Asia. The Pacific Review, 31(2): 151–168. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1341427
Piovani D, Molinero C, Wilson A, 2017. Urban retail location: insights from percolation theory and spatial interaction modeling. PLoS One, 12(10): e185787. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185787
Pooler J, 1994. An extended family of spatial interaction models. Progress in Human Geography, 18(1): 17–39. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/030913259401800102
Ramasamy B, Yeung M, Utoktham C et al., 2017. Trade and Trade Facilitation along the Belt and Road Initiative Corridors. ARTNeT Working Paper Series, No. 172. Bangkok.
Ravenstein E G, 1885. The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2): 167–235. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2979181
Rodemann H, Templar S, 2014. The enablers and inhibitors of intermodal rail freight between Asia and Europe. Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, 4(3): 70–86. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrtpm.2014.10.001
Roy J R, Thill J C, 2003. Spatial interaction modelling. Papers in Regional Science, 83(1): 339–361. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10110-003-0189-4
Sayer R A, 1976. A critique of urban modelling: from regional science to urban and regional political economy. Progress in Planning, 6: 187–254. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-9006(76)90006-4
Shen S, Chan W, 2018. A comparative study of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall plan. Palgrave Communications, 4(1): 32. doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-018-0077-9
Sheu J B, Kundu T, 2018. Forecasting time-varying logistics distribution flows in the One Belt-One Road strategic context. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 117: 5–22. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2017.03.003
Shi K F, Yu B L, Huang C et al., 2018. Exploring spatiotemporal patterns of electric power consumption in countries along the Belt and Road. Energy, 150: 847–859. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.020
Smith T R, Slater P B, 1981. A family of spatial interaction models incorporating information flows and choice set constraints applied to U.S. interstate labor flows. International Regional Science Review, 6(1): 15–31. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/016001768100600102
Summers T, 2016. China’s ‘New Silk Roads’: sub-national regions and networks of global political economy. Third World Quarterly, 37(9): 1628–1643. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2016.1153415
Tekdal V, 2018. China’s Belt and Road Initiative: at the crossroads of challenges and ambitions. The Pacific Review, 31(3): 373–390. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1391864
Timmermans H J P, 1981. Multiattribute shopping models and ridge regression analysis. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 13(1): 43–56. doi: https://doi.org/10.1068/a130043
Tong D Q, Murray A T, 2012. Spatial optimization in geography. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 102(6): 1290–1309. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2012.685044
Tracy E F, Shvarts E, Simonov E et al., 2017. China’s new Eurasian ambitions: the environmental risks of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 58(1): 56–88. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2017.1295876
Wang G G, 2017. The Belt and Road Initiative in quest for a dispute resolution mechanism. Asia Pacific Law Review, 25(1): 1–16. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10192557.2017.1321731
Wang Jinfeng, Xu Chengdong, 2017. Geodetector: principle and prospective. Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(1): 116–134. (in Chinese)
Wang Y, 2016. Offensive for defensive: the belt and road initiative and China’s new grand strategy. The Pacific Review, 29(3): 455–463. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2016.1154690
Wang Zhe, Dong Suocheng, Li Zehong et al., 2015. Traffic patterns in the silk road economic belt and construction modes for a traffic economic belt across continental plates. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 6(2): 79–86. doi: https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2015.02.003
Wilson A G, 1971. A family of spatial interaction models, and associated developments. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 3(1): 1–32. doi: https://doi.org/10.1068/a030001
Wilson A G, 1975. Some new forms of spatial interaction model: a review. Transportation Research, 9(2–3): 167–179. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-1647(75)90054-4
Yu Huilu, Dong Suocheng, Li Zehong et al., 2015. Evolution of regional geopolitical pattern and its impact on the regional resources cooperation in northeast Asia. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 6(2): 93–100. doi: https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2015.02.005
Zhai Kun, Wang Lina, Liu Xiaowei et al., 2017. A comparative study on the five-connectivity index between China and ASEAN. China-ASEAN Studies, 1: 21–43. (in Chinese)
Zipf G K, 1946. The p1 P2/D hypothesis: on the intercity movement of persons. American Sociological Review, 11(6): 677–686. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2087063
Zobler L, 1958. Decision making in regional construction. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 48(2): 140–148. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1958.tb01566.x
Zou Jialing, Liu Weidong, 2016. Trade network of China and countries along ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ areas from 2001 to 2013. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 36(11): 1629–1636. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation item
Under the auspices of A Category of Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA20010101)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Huang, Q., Zhu, X., Liu, C. et al. Spatial-temporal Evolution and Determinants of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Maximum Entropy Gravity Model Approach. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 30, 839–854 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-020-1144-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-020-1144-x