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Assessment of the WRF model in reproducing a flash-flood heavy rainfall event over Kosovo

  • Research Article - Atmospheric & Space Sciences
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Abstract

This research investigates the efficacy of the cloud-resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing convective cells associated with flash-flooding heavy rainfall near Peja, Northeast Kosovo, on June 24, 2023. Employing two distinct dynamical cores and a unique numerical setup for the Kosovo domain, numerical experiments were conducted. The study employed a triply nested WRF-ARW model with a high resolution of 3 km horizontal grid spacing, integrating conventional analysis data. Additionally, experiments using the WRF-NMM core with 3 km for a larger domain covering Southeast Europe and Kosovo domain were executed to simulate the specific event. The WRF model accurately simulated the initiation of isolated thunderstorms, convective band formation, cloud cluster, and squall line at the opportune time. While precipitation distribution was reasonably replicated, there was a slight underestimation in the amount. Hydrological analysis of precipitation, including river discharge rates provided from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, identified a unique storm category with intense precipitation production, registering an intensity of approximately 54.6 mm in 1 h, leading to sudden flash flooding.

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Acknowledgements

We express our sincere appreciation to the Hydrometeorological Institute of Kosovo for their generous provision of precipitation data and daily rainfall distribution for the case study event. Our gratitude extends to the Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering (FINKI) for the invaluable access granted to advanced computing facilities, essential for running our model effectively. We would like to extend our thanks to the Director of RHMZS and the Head of the Radar and Satellite Meteorology division for providing the composite radar images crucial to our research. Special recognition is reserved for the editor and the anonymous reviewers, whose dedication and time invested in providing insightful reviews and constructive recommendations significantly enriched the quality of our work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Prishtina-Hasan Prishtina, Pristina, Kosovo

    Lavdim Osmanaj

  2. Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering FINKI, Ss Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

    Irena Spiridonov & Boro Jakimovski

  3. Institute of Physics-Meteorology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ss Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

    Vlado Spiridonov

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  1. Lavdim Osmanaj
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Correspondence to Vlado Spiridonov.

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Edited by Prof. Theodore Karacostas (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF).

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Osmanaj, L., Spiridonov, I., Jakimovski, B. et al. Assessment of the WRF model in reproducing a flash-flood heavy rainfall event over Kosovo. Acta Geophys. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01365-9

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