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Option prioritization for unknown preference

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Abstract

An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknown and crisp, of decision makers (DMs) in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has one or more options, each of which may be selected or not. A state, or possible scenario, is formed when all DMs make an option selection. The software GMCR II contains an option prioritization procedure that makes it easy for a modeller to enter a DM’s crisp preference ordering over the states using prioritized statements describing the DM’s preferred option combinations. This procedure is extended by adding two new logical connectives that describe uncertainty of preference. For each DM, a range of possible scores for each feasible state can then be calculated, facilitating the determination of a preference ordering containing uncertainty by comparing and ranking scores. To demonstrate how this new methodology can be used to represent unknown preferences in a real-world decision problem, it is applied to a Canadian dispute over proposed water exports.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 211100, China

    Jing Yu & Min Zhao

  2. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Canada

    Jing Yu, Keith W. Hipel & D. Marc Kilgour

  3. Department of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, N2L 3C5, Canada

    D. Marc Kilgour

  4. Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

    Keith W. Hipel

  5. Water Resources and Sustainable Development Research Centre of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Jing Yu & Min Zhao

Authors
  1. Jing Yu
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  2. Keith W. Hipel
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  3. D. Marc Kilgour
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  4. Min Zhao
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Keith W. Hipel.

Additional information

Jing Yu is a Ph.D. candidate of technological economics and management at Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. She received her Bachelor’s degree in international economics and trades from Hohai University in 2009. She has been taking successive postgraduate and doctoral programs of study for doctoral degree since September 2009 at Hohai University. From September 2013 to September 2014, she was a visiting scholar in the Systems Design Engineering Department at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Her current research interests are in the fields of game theory, conflict analysis, development and application of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), water resources management, development and resolution of environmental conflicts, and environmental engineering and sustainable development.

Keith W. Hipel is a professor of systems design engineering at the University of Waterloo where he is Coordinator of the Conflict Analysis Group. He is the president of the Academy of Science within the Royal Society of Canada, Senior Fellow of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Fellow of the Balsillie School of International Affairs and Past-Chair of the Board of Governors of Renison University College. Keith thoroughly enjoys mentoring students and is a recipient of the Distinguished Teacher Award, Faculty of Engineering Teaching Excellence Award, and the Award of Excellence in Graduate Supervision from the University of Waterloo, as well as the Outstanding Engineering Educator Award from IEEE Canada. His major research interests are the development of conflict resolution, multiple criteria decision analysis, time series analysis and other decision-making methodologies for addressing challenging interdisciplinary system of systems engineering problems lying at the confluence of society, technology and the environment, with applications in water resources management, hydrology, environmental engineering, energy, and sustainable development. Keith is Co-Chair of the Council of Canadian Academies (CCA) Expert Panel on “Energy Use and Climate Change: A Synthesis of the Latest Evidence”. He is the recipient of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Eminent Scientist Award, Joseph G. Wohl Outstanding Career Award from the IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC) Society, IEEE SMC Norbert Wiener Award, Docteur Honoris Causa (France), Doctor Honoris Causa (Hungary), Sir John William Dawson Medal (Royal Society of Canada), and Engineering Medal for Research and Development (Professional Engineers Ontario).

D. Marc Kilgour is a professor of mathematics at Wilfrid Laurier University and Adjunct Professor of Systems Design Engineering at University of Waterloo. His research lies at the intersection of mathematics, engineering, and social science, and his most significant contributions include insights into arms control, environmental management, negotiation, arbitration, voting systems, fair division, and coalition formation. Also, he pioneered the application of decision support systems for strategic conflicts. Dr. Kilgour has been privileged to supervise the PhD programs of 19 students, all of whom are going on to illustrious careers. His lifetime publications, including 6 books and nearly 400 articles in refereed journals, conference proceedings, and edited books, have earned him many international awards and distinctions. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the Laurier Centre for Military Strategic and Disarmament Studies, is active in 12 professional societies, and has many editorial responsibilities, including co-editing the Springer Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation. He was President of the Peace Science Society in 2012-13, and is now President of the INFORMS Section on Group Decision and Negotiation.

Min Zhao is a professor of Business School at Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. He received his Bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, in 1984. He has hosted and participated in over 70 projects, and published over 10 books and over 130 journal and conference papers. His major research interests are technological economics and management, and water conservancy economy.

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Yu, J., Hipel, K.W., Kilgour, D.M. et al. Option prioritization for unknown preference. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 25, 39–61 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5282-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5282-0

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