Abstract
Climate change adaptation technologies (CCATs) have become increasingly important for farmers as they face the challenges of climate change and natural disasters. Despite this, many rural areas still rely on traditional agricultural techniques. To promote the adoption of CCATs in agriculture, it is necessary to explore the incentives and conditions for the effectiveness of the policy. We develop an evolutionary game model to analyze the behavior of local governments and farmers in promoting CCATs. Our findings indicate that, under certain conditions, the promotion of CCATs can achieve equilibrium. The incentive for farmers to adopt CCATs increases within a certain range when local governments provide risk subsidies and cost sharing. When subsidies are too high, however, local governments may choose not to promote CCATs, which reduces the incentives for farmers to adopt them. Publicity is also an important factor in promoting CCATs. Our study provides insight into the development of policies aimed at promoting CCATs in agriculture.
Graphical abstract
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data underlying this article will be shared on reasonable request to the corresponding author.
References
Abid M, Schneider UA, Scheffran J (2016) Adaptation to climate change and its impacts on food productivity and crop income: perspectives of farmers in rural Pakistan. Journal of Rural Studies 47:254–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.08.005
Abid M, Scheffran J, Schneider UA, Elahi E (2019) Farmer perceptions of climate change, observed trends and adaptation of agriculture in Pakistan. Environmental Management 63(1):110–123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-018-1113-7
Anwar MR, Liu DL, Macadam I, Kelly G (2013) Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 113(1-2):225–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0780-1
Aryal JP, Sapkota TB, Khurana R, Khatri-Chhetri A, Rahut DB, Jat ML (2020) Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environment Development and Sustainability 22(6):5045–5075. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00414-4
Ayanlade A, Radeny M, Akin-Onigbinde AI (2018) Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers' communities in Nigeria. Geojournal 83(2):319–331. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-017-9771-1
Berrang-Ford L, Siders AR, Lesnikowski A, Fischer AP, Callaghan MW, Haddaway NR, Mach KJ, Araos M, Shah MAR, Wannewitz M, Doshi D, Leiter T, Matavel C, Musah-Surugu JI, Wong-Parodi G, Antwi-Agyei P, Ajibade I, Chauhan N, Kakenmaster W et al (2021) A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change. Nature Climate Change 11(11):989. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y
Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environmental Science & Policy 12(4):413–426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002
Chen H, Wang JX, Huang JK (2014) Policy support, social capital, and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 24:193–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.010
Chen J, Zhong FN, Sun DQ (2022) Lessons from farmers’ adaptive practices to climate change in China: a systematic literature review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 29(54):81183–81197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23449-z
Claessens L, Antle JM, Stoorvogel JJ, Valdivia RO, Thornton PK, Herrero M (2012) A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data. Agricultural Systems 111:85–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.05.003
Dagestani A, Qing LL, Abou Houran M (2022) What remains unsolved in sub-African environmental exposure information disclosure: a review. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15(10):487. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15100487
Ghahramani A, Howden SM, del Prado A, Thomas DT, Moore AD, Ji B, Ates S (2019) Climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation in temperate grazing systems: a review. Sustainability 11(24):7224. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11247224
Gilman EL, Ellison J, Duke NC, Field C (2008) Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: a review. Aquatic Botany 89(2):237–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquabot.2007.12.009
Goyal M, Netessine S (2007) Strategic technology choice and capacity investment under demand uncertainty. Management Science 53(2):192–207. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0611
He B, Ma X, Malik MN, Shinwari R, Wang YD, Qing LL, Dagestani A, Ageli MM (2023) Sustainable economic performance and transition towards cleaner energy to mitigate climate change risk: evidence from top emerging economies. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2022.2154240
Hoffmann V, Jones K (2021) Improving food safety on the farm: experimental evidence from Kenya on incentives and subsidies for technology adoption. World Development 143:105406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105406
Howden SM, Soussana J-F, Tubiello FN, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(50):19691–19696. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701890104
Hu Y, Wang ZY, Li XR (2020) Impact of policies on electric vehicle diffusion: an evolutionary game of small world network analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production 265:121703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121703
Huang JK, Wang YJ, Wang JX (2015) Farmers’ adaptation to extreme weather events through farm management and its impacts on the mean and risk of rice yield in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97(2):602–617. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aav005
Hussain M, Butt AR, Uzma F, Ahmed R, Irshad S, Rehman A, Yousaf B (2020) A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 192(1):48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7956-4
Jin JJ, Gao YW, Wang XM, Nam PK (2015) Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District, China. Land Use Policy 47:365–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.04.028
Kerr RA (2007) Global warming is changing the world. Science 316(5822):188–190. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.316.5822.188
Khanal U, Wilson C, Hoang VN, Lee B (2018) Farmers’ Adaptation to climate change, its determinants and impacts on rice yield in Nepal. Ecological Economics 144:139–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.08.006
Kou P, Han Y, Li YX (2021) An evolutionary analysis of corruption in the process of collecting environmental tax in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28(39):54852–54862. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13104-4
Laube W, Schraven B, Awo M (2012) Smallholder adaptation to climate change: dynamics and limits in Northern Ghana. Climatic Change 111(3-4):753–774. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0199-1
Li FY, Cao X, Sheng PP (2022) Impact of pollution-related punitive measures on the adoption of cleaner production technology: simulation based on an evolutionary game model. Journal of Cleaner Production 339:130703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.130703
Lin JY, Cai F, Li Z (2004) The China miracle: development strategy and economic reform (Revised Edition). The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press, Hong Kong
Mao QH, Xu LY, Wu RW (2023) Evolutionary game of stakeholders’ behavioral strategies in wetland ecosystems from the vulnerability perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25300-5
Matewos T (2019) Deconstructing institutional roles in climate change adaptation: the case of local public institutions in drought-prone districts of Sidama, Southern Ethiopia. Environmental Science & Policy 98:47–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.05.005
Menapace L, Colson G, Raffaelli R (2013) Risk aversion, subjective beliefs, and farmer risk management strategies. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95(2):384–389. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas107
Mitter H, Schonhart M, Larcher M, Schmid E (2018) The stimuli-actions-effects-responses (SAER)-framework for exploring perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture. Journal of Environmental Management 209:286–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.12.063
Quan SP, Li YM, Song JX, Zhang T, Wang MY (2019) Adaptation to climate change and its impacts on wheat yield: perspective of farmers in Henan of China. Sustainability 11(7):1928. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11071928
Ramirez-Villegas J, Salazar M, Jarvis A, Navarro-Racines CE (2012) A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050. Climatic Change 115(3-4):611–628. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0500-y
Sasaki T, Unemi T (2011) Replicator dynamics in public goods games with reward funds. Journal of Theoretical Biology 287:109–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.07.026
Shaffril HAM, Krauss SE, Samsuddin SF (2018) A systematic review on Asian’s farmers’ adaptation practices towards climate change. Science of the Total Environment 644:683–695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.349
Stage J (2010) Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185(1):150–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05168.x
Sun Y, Du HY, Liu BY, Kanchanaroek Y, Zhang JF, Zhang P (2022) Evolutionary game analysis for grassland degradation management, considering the livelihood differentiation of Herders. Land 11(10):1776. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11101776
Sun Y, Liu BY, Fan J, Qiao Q (2021) The multi-player evolutionary game analysis for the protective development of ecotourism. Environmental Science & Policy 126:111–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.026
Suresh K, Khanal U, Wilson C, Managi S, Quayle A, Santhirakumar S (2021) An economic analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change impacts in Sri Lanka: an endogenous switching regression analysis. Land Use Policy 109:105601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105601
Taylor PD, Jonker LB (1978) Evolutionary stable strategies and game dynamics. Mathematical biosciences 40(1-2):145–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(78)90077-9
Tian ML, Zheng YY, Sun XL, Zheng HC (2022) A research on promoting chemical fertiliser reduction for sustainable agriculture purposes: evolutionary game analyses involving 'government, farmers, and consumers’. Ecological Indicators 144:109433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109433
Tompkins EL, Eakin H (2012) Managing private and public adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 22(1):3–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.010
Tong QM, Swallow B, Zhang L, Zhang JB (2019) The roles of risk aversion and climate-smart agriculture in climate risk management: evidence from rice production in the Jianghan Plain. China. Climate Risk Management 26:100199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100199
van Valkengoed AM, Steg L (2019) Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behavior. Nature. Climate Change 9(2):158-+. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0371-y
Wu F, Ma JH (2020) Evolution dynamics of agricultural internet of things technology promotion and adoption in China. Discrete Dyn. Nat. Soc. 2020:1854193. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/1854193
Tian Z, Xu H, Zhong H, Sun L, Liu J (2019) Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China. Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture 111-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9235-1_8
Zhang CY, Jin JJ, Kuang FY, Ning J, Wan XY, Guan T (2020) Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation behavior in Wushen Banner. China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 27(21):26484–26494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09048-w
Zhang LY, Hu JM, Li YB, Pradhan NS (2018) Public-private partnership in enhancing farmers’ adaptation to drought: insights from the Lujiang Flatland in the Nu River (Upper Salween) valley, China. Land Use Policy 71:138–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.11.034
Zhao T, Liu ZX (2019) A novel analysis of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology adoption: an evolutionary game model between stakeholders. Energy 189:116352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116352
Funding
This work was supported by the National Social Science Funds of China (Project No. 22&ZD192).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Sun Yong: conceptualization, methodology, and writing—original draft. Ruihui Yu: formal analysis, validation, writing—review and editing, and supervision. Tai Chiu Edwin Cheng: writing—review and editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethical approval
The research included in the current submission does not involve human or animal subjects, or involves pathological reports, etc.
Consent to participate
All authors agree to participate in this study.
Consent for publication
All authors agree to the publication of this research in the journal. Manuscript is approved by all authors for publication.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Eyup Dogan
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Sun, Y., Yu, R. & Cheng, T.C.E. Incentives for promoting climate change adaptation technologies in agriculture: an evolutionary game approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 97025–97039 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28896-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28896-w