Abstract
Land use changes have a considerable impact on ecosystem services (ESs). In recent years, land use changes caused by urban expansion in Nanjing City have been obvious and are expected to further change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to quantitatively assess ecosystem service value (ESV) changes caused by previous land use changes and future potential changes in Nanjing. In this study, land use data products based on remote sensing images, Dyna-CLUE model, and the ESV equivalent coefficient method were applied to assess the impact of land use changes on ESVs in Nanjing City over the past 23 years (1995–2018), and to forecast the changes of ESV in 2030. The results indicated that the total ESVs of Nanjing City displayed a trend of first increasing and then declining in 1995–2018. From the land use classification, the water area had the largest ESV in Nanjing, followed by arable land. Additionally, the regulating service value was the highest among the four primary ESs in Nanjing from 1995 to 2030, with the highest value of 13.73 billion yuan in 2015. Among the three forecast scenarios, the ecological protection scenario had the highest total ESV and was followed by the urban expansion and business as usual scenarios. These findings may assist for the scientific decision-making of sustainable land use and ecosystem management in Nanjing City.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- ESs:
-
Ecosystem services
- ESVs:
-
Ecosystem service values
- BAU scenario:
-
Business as usual scenario
- UE scenario:
-
Urban expansion scenario
- EP scenario:
-
Ecological protection scenario
- GIS:
-
Geographical information system
- ROC:
-
Relative operating characteristic
References
Abera W, Tamene L, Kassawmar T et al (2021) Impacts of land use and land cover dynamics on ecosystem services in the Yayo coffee forest biosphere reserve, southwestern Ethiopia. Ecosyst Serv 50:101338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101338
Akhtar M, Zhao Y, Gao G et al (2020) Assessment of ecosystem services value in response to prevailing and future land use/cover changes in Lahore, Pakistan. Region Sustain 1:37–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.001
Aktürk E, Güneroğlu N (2021) Degradation of coastal ecosystem services in southern Black Sea: a case study of Trabzon city. Ocean Coast Manag 213:105837. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105837
Ar F, Dv C (1990) High agreement but low kappa: I. The problems of two paradoxes. J Clin Epidemiol 43:543–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-4356(90)90158-l
Arowolo AO, Deng X, Olatunji OA, Obayelu AE (2018) Assessing changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria. Sci Total Environ 636:597–609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.277
Assefa WW, Eneyew BG, Wondie A (2021) The impacts of land-use and land-cover change on wetland ecosystem service values in peri-urban and urban area of Bahir Dar City, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Northwestern Ethiopia. Ecol Process 10:39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-021-00310-8
Aziz T (2021) Changes in land use and ecosystem services values in Pakistan, 1950–2050. Environ Dev 37:100576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100576
Balkanlou KR, Müller B, Cord AF et al (2020) Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services provision in a degraded ecosystem: a systematic assessment in the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Sci Total Environ 716:137100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137100
Barbosa de ACC, Atkinson PM, Dearing JA (2016) Extravagance in the commons: resource exploitation and the frontiers of ecosystem service depletion in the Amazon estuary. Sci Total Environ 550:6–16
Baude M, Meyer BC, Schindewolf M (2019) Land use change in an agricultural landscape causing degradation of soil based ecosystem services. Sci Total Environ 659:1526–1536. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.455
Bin F, Pei X, Yukuan W et al (2013) Spatial pattern of water retetnion in Dujiangyan County. Acta Ecol Sin 33:0789–0797. https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201203260410
Blumstein M, Thompson JR (2015) Land-use impacts on the quantity and configuration of ecosystem service provisioning in Massachusetts, USA. J Appl Ecol 52:1009–1019. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12444
Boone RB, Conant RT, Sircely J et al (2018) Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services. Glob Chang Biol 24:1382–1393. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13995
Britz W, Verburg PH, Leip A (2011) Modelling of land cover and agricultural change in Europe: combining the CLUE and CAPRI-Spat approaches. Agric Ecosyst Environ 142:40–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.03.008
Bryan BA, Ye Y, Zhang J, Connor JD (2018) Land-use change impacts on ecosystem services value: incorporating the scarcity effects of supply and demand dynamics. Ecosyst Serv 32:144–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.07.002
Chen P, Yang W-N, Shi L, Peng W-B (2015) Simulation of land use change in Jinjiang District of Chengdu based on the Dyna-CLUE model. Surve Mapp 38:163–166
Chen G, Li X, Liu X et al (2020a) Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways. Nat Commun 11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x
Chen S, Feng Y, Tong X et al (2020b) Modeling ESV losses caused by urban expansion using cellular automata and geographically weighted regression. Sci Total Environ 712:136509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136509
Chuai X, Huang X, Wu C et al (2016) Land use and ecosystems services value changes and ecological land management in coastal Jiangsu, China. Habitat Intl 57:164–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.07.004
Chuai X, Yuan Y, Zhang X et al (2019) Multiangle land use-linked carbon balance examination in Nanjing City, China. Land Use Policy 84:305–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.03.003
Costanza R, Arge R, Groot R et al (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387:253–260. https://doi.org/10.1038/387253a0
Costanza R, de Groot R, Sutton P et al (2014) Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob Environ Chang 26:152–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002
Dey NN, Al Rakib A, Al KA, Raikwar V (2021) Geospatial modelling of changes in land use/land cover dynamics using multi-layer perception Markov chain model in Rajshahi City, Bangladesh. Environ Challenges 4:100148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100148
Ding H, Shi H (2017) The surface temperature and land use change analysis of Nanjing based on time series data. In: The 34th Annual Meeting of China Meteorological Society. Chinese Meteorological Society
Eigenbrod F, Bell VA, Davies HN et al (2011) The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services. Proc Biol Sci 278:3201–3208
Elmqvist T, Setälä H, Handel SN et al (2015) Benefits of restoring ecosystem services in urban areas. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 14:101–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.05.001
Enming R, Yi X, Zhiyun O et al (2014) Status and dynamics of China’s lake water regulation. Acta Ecol Sin 34:6225–6231. https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201310122456
Fan J, Liu J, Zhou W, Yu F (2021) Evaluation of status quo of water ecosystem of Chengnanhe River Watershed in Nanjing. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering 52:139–148. 10. 13928/j. cnki. wrahe. 2021. 05. 015
Fu B, Yu D, Lü N (2017) An indicator system for biodiversity and ecosystem services evaluation in China. Acta Ecol Sin 37:341–348. https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201611092273
Fu X, Wang X, Yang YJ (2018) Deriving suitability factors for CA-Markov land use simulation model based on local historical data. J Environ Manag 206:10–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.10.012
General Planning of Land Use in Nanjing City (2006-2020) (2012) Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China. In: http://g.mnr.gov.cn/201807/t20180720_2115895.html
Gong J, Hu Z, Chen W et al (2018) Urban expansion dynamics and modes in metropolitan Guangzhou, China. Land Use Policy 72:100–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.025
Guo T, Wang Z (2022) Prediction and multi-scenario simulation analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem carbon storage in Nanjing based on LUCC. Hubei. Agric Sci 61:33–40. https://doi.org/10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.06.007
He C, Zhang D, Huang Q, Zhao Y (2016) Assessing the potential impacts of urban expansion on regional carbon storage by linking the LUSD-urban and InVEST models. Environ Model Softw 75:44–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.015
Hoekstra A, Steinbuch M, Verbong G (2017) Creating agent-based energy transition management models that can uncover profitable pathways to climate change mitigation. Complexity 2017:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/1967645
Hu Y, Dong Y, Batunacun (2018a) An automatic approach for land-change detection and land updates based on integrated NDVI timing analysis and the CVAPS method with GEE support. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 146:347–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2018.10.008
Hu C, Yang K, Guo X, Zhang Y (2018b) Spatial and temporal variations of land use and ecological service values in Jiaxing. Res Agri Modern 39:503–510. https://doi.org/10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0026
Hu M, Li Z, Wang Y et al (2019) Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value in response to land-use/cover changes in the Pearl River Delta. Resour Conserv Recycl 149:106–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.05.032
Hu M, Wang Y, Xia B et al (2020) How to balance ecosystem services and economic benefits? – A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China. J Environ Manag 271:110917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110917
Huang D, Huang J, Liu T (2019) Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries. Land Use Policy 82:422–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.12.028
Jiang W, Lü Y, Liu Y, Gao W (2020) Ecosystem service value of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau significantly increased during 25 years. Ecosyst Serv 44:101146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101146
Jim CY, Chen WY (2009) Ecosystem services and valuation of urban forests in China. Cities 26:187–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2009.03.003
Kang Y, Cheng C, Liu X et al (2019) An ecosystem services value assessment of land-use change in Chengdu: based on a modification of scarcity factor. Phys Chem Earth 110:157–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2019.01.003
Kindu M, Schneider T, Teketay D, Knoke T (2016) Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa–Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Sci Total Environ 547:137–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.127
Kohsaka R, Ito K, Miyake Y, Uchiyama Y (2021) Cultural ecosystem services from the afforestation of rice terraces and farmland: Emerging services as an alternative to monoculturalization. For Ecol Manag 497:119481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119481
Lambin EF, Geist HJ, Lepers E (2003) Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annu Rev Environ Resour 28:205–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459
Lei J, Wang S, Wu J et al (2021) Land-use configuration has significant impacts on water-related ecosystem services. Ecol Eng 160:106133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.106133
Li B, Dongxiang C, Shaohua W et al (2016) Spatio-temporal assessment of urbanization impacts on ecosystem services: case study of Nanjing City, China. Ecol Indic 71:416–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.07.017
Li Y, Zhan J, Liu Y et al (2018) Response of ecosystem services to land use and cover change: a case study in Chengdu City. Resour Conserv Recycl 132:291–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.03.009
Liu J, Zhang Z, Zhuang D et al (2003) A study on the spatial - temporal dynamic changes of land - use and driving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geogr Res 22:1–12
Liu Y, Hou X, Li X et al (2020) Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone. Ecol Indic 111:106004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106004
Liu C, Sun W, Li M (2021) Evolution of ecosystem service value in rural regions based on geographical scope of entities: a case study of Nanjing, China. Ecol Inf 64:101368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101368
Lu W, Dai C, Guo H (2015) Land use scenario design and simulation based on Dyna-CLUE model in Dianchi Lake Watershed. Geogr Res 34:1619–1629. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201509002
Luo J, Wei YHD (2009) Modeling spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities: the case of Nanjing. Landsc Urban Plan 91:51–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2008.11.010
McNeely JA (2009) The wealth of nature: ecosystem services, biodiversity, and human well-being. ILCP, International League of Conservation Photographers
Meng M, Zhang Y, Zhi J et al (2021) Spatial temporal evolution of ecosystem service value under rapid urbanization -a case study of Nanjing City. Bull Soil Water Conserv 41:296–304. https://doi.org/10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.03.039
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) DC, Washington
Netto VM, Meirelles J, Ribeiro FL (2017) Social interaction and the city: the effect of space on the reduction of entropy. Complexity 2017:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6182503
Niquisse S, Cabral P (2018) Assessment of changes in ecosystem service monetary values in Mozambique. Environ Dev 25:12–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2017.09.003
Peng L, Chen S, Liu Y, Wang J (2008) Application of Citygreen model in benefit assessment of Nanjing urban greenbelt in carbon fixation and runoff reduction. Front Forest China 3:177–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11461-008-0035-6
Peng K, Jiang W, Ling Z et al (2021) Evaluating the potential impacts of land use changes on ecosystem service value under multiple scenarios in support of SDG reporting: a case study of the Wuhan urban agglomeration. J Clean Prod 307:127321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127321
Pontius RG, Schneider LC (2001) Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agric Ecosyst Environ 85:239–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00187-6
Potma Gonçalves DR, de Moraes C, Sá J, Mishra U et al (2018) Soil carbon inventory to quantify the impact of land use change to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem services. Environ Pollut 243:940–952. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2018.07.068
Qiao W, Mao G, Wang Y, Chen Y (2016) Research on urban expansion and land use change in Nanjing over the past 32 years. J Geo-inform Sci 18:200–209. https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00200
Sannigrahi S, Bhatt S, Rahmat S et al (2018) Estimating global ecosystem service values and its response to land surface dynamics during 1995–2015. J Environ Manag 223:115–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.091
Shen Q, Chen Q, Tang B et al (2009) A system dynamics model for the sustainable land use planning and development. Habitat Intl 33:15–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2008.02.004
Song X (2018) Global estimates of ecosystem service value and change: taking into account uncertainties in satellite-based land cover data. Ecol Econ 143:227–235
Stürck J, Schulp CJE, Verburg PH (2015) Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – the role of past and future land use change. Appl Geogr 63:121–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.009
Tan Z, Guan Q, Lin J et al (2020) The response and simulation of ecosystem services value to land use/land cover in an oasis, Northwest China. Ecol Indic 118:106711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106711
Tan Y, Chen H, Xiao W et al (2021) Influence of farmland marginalization in mountainous and hilly areas on land use changes at the county level. Sci Total Environ 149576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149576
Tang S, Wang LC, Wu XG (2019) Valuation of wetland ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing region: a case study of the Nanjing Jiangbei new area, China. Appl Ecol Environ Res 17:10909–10927. https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1705_1090910927
Ting W (2019) Simulation of land use change in Nanjing based on CLUE-S model. Wuhan University
Verburg PH, Overmars KP (2009) Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landsc Ecol 24:1167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9355-7
Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A et al (2002) Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environ Manag 30:391–405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-2630-x
Wang B, Liu DY (2020) Ecological value analysis based on land use change in Liuhe District of Nanjing, China (2009, 2019). J Global Change Data Discov 4:170–180. https://doi.org/10.3974/geodp.2020.02.10
Wang R, Hou H, Murayama Y, Derdouri A (2020) Spatiotemporal analysis of land use/cover patterns and their relationship with land surface temperature in Nanjing, China. Remote Sens 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12030440
Wei H, Yang Q (2020) Value analysis of ecosystem services in Nanjing. Modern Business 18:122–123. https://doi.org/10.14097/j.cnki.5392/2020.18.052
Wu L, Liu G (2022) Simulation and prediction of land-use change in Nanjing based on artificial bee colony cellular automata model. Bull Surve Mapp 95–99. https://doi.org/10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2022.0050
Wu Z, Qian Y (2022) An integration method to predict the impact of urban land use change on green space connectivity under different development scenarios using a case study of Nanjing. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, China. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21792-9
Wu C, Chen B, Huang X, Dennis Wei YH (2020) Effect of land-use change and optimization on the ecosystem service values of Jiangsu province, China. Ecol Indic 117:106507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106507
Xie G, Zhang Y, Lu C et al (2001) Study on valuation of rangeland ecosystem services of China. J Nat Resour 16:47–53. https://doi.org/CNKI:SUN:ZRZX.0.2001-01-009
Xie G, Lu C, Leng Y et al (2003) Ecological assets valuation of the Tibetan Plateau. J Nat Resour 18:189–196. https://doi.org/CNKI:SUN:ZRZX.0.2003-02-010
Xie G, Zhang C, Zhang L, et al (2015) Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area. Journal Of Natural Resources 30:1243–1254. CNKI:SUN:ZRZX.0.2015-08-001.30
Ya L (2018) Analysis of ecological bottlenecks in the ecological corridors of the eastern part of Nanjing. Jiangsu Construction 19–21
Yang M, Xie Y (2021) Spatial pattern change and ecosystem service value dynamics of ecological and non-ecological redline areas in Nanjing, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 18. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084224
Yang G, Ge Y, Xue H et al (2015) Using ecosystem service bundles to detect trade-offs and synergies across urban-rural complexes. Landsc Urban Plan 136:110–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.12.006
Yang S, Bai Y, Alatalo JM et al (2021) Spatio-temporal changes in water-related ecosystem services provision and trade-offs with food production. J Clean Prod 286:125316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125316
Ye G, Su W, Sun X (2018) Simulation of the construction land expansion based on the Dyna-CLUE model in Taihu Basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin 27:725–734. 10. 11870/cjlyzyyhj201804004
You W, Ji Z, Wu L et al (2017) Modeling changes in land use patterns and ecosystem services to explore a potential solution for meeting the management needs of a heritage site at the landscape level. Ecol Indic 73:68–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.09.027
Yuan Y, Chen D, Wu S et al (2019) Urban sprawl decreases the value of ecosystem services and intensifies the supply scarcity of ecosystem services in China. Sci Total Environ 697:134170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134170
Zeng C, Li Y, Xuewen D, Yuqi X (2022) Assessment and driving force analysis of ecosystem service value in the urban agglomeration along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Res Soil Water Conserv 29:362–371. https://doi.org/10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2022.02.022
Zhao Y, Liu Z, Wu J (2020) Grassland ecosystem services: a systematic review of research advances and future directions. Landsc Ecol 1–22
Zhao H, Zhu T, Wang S, Lindley S (2022) Study on the changes of urban green space with remote sensing data: a comparison of Nanjing and greater Manchester. Pol J Environ Stud 31:461–474. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/138208
Zuo S, Chen G, Zuo Z, Li Y (2021) Assessment of forest ecosystem service functions and values in Nanjing City. Forest Resour Manag 76–82. https://doi.org/10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl
Data availability
Not applicable.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 51908249), the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (grant no. 19KIB560012), the High-level Scientific Research Foundation for the introduction of talent for Jiangsu University (grant no. 18JDG038), the Integration and demonstration of collaborative intelligent management technology of energy and carbon emission in Suzhou rail transit (grant no. ST202218), and the Innovative Approaches Special Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (grant no. 2020IM020300).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Ping Yu: data curation; writing—original draft preparation; methodology
Shuainan Zhang: visualization, investigation
Peng Wang: writing—reviewing and editing
Yingnan Li: supervision
Lei Huang: reviewing
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethical approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent to publish
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Yu, P., Zhang, S., Wang, P. et al. Evaluation and prediction of land use change impacts on ecosystem service values in Nanjing City from 1995 to 2030. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 18040–18063 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23346-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23346-5