Abstract
The vehicle exhaust pollution has become an important source of air pollutant and CO2 emissions, with the continuous growth of the number of vehicles. Focusing on the increasingly serious problems of vehicle exhaust pollution and CO2 emissions, a management model of vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction was established by using system dynamics. Taking Beijing as the case study city, different emission reduction scenarios were designed. Different scenarios are analyzed, and the results reveal the following: (1) Although the carbon tax policy for motor vehicles can play a role in vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction to a certain extent, but as the simulation time goes on, the policy effect is gradually weakened. The emission reduction effect of new energy vehicle promotion policy is not significant, and there is a “lag effect” and a “seesaw effect.” (2) The science and technology policy has multiple effects of environmental, economic, and health. It can significantly reduce vehicle pollution and carbon emissions, and achieve the peak carbon by 2030. (3) It is not that more policies are better for CO2 emission reduction, and there is a “crowding out effect” in the CS. (4) From the perspectives of long term, the science and technology policy is a more effective way to achieve the co-control of CO2 and PM2.5 and achieve the carbon peaking goal compared with other emission reduction scenarios. These results can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies and realize the management of motor vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction.
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Funding
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 11901167), a project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant no. 2021M690889), the Social Science Planning Foundation of Henan Province (grant no. 2019BJJ038), the Soft Science Key Research Project of Henan Province (grant no. 202400410051), the Science and Technology Innovation Foundation of Henan Agricultural University (grant nos. KJCX2021B04, KJCX2021B05), the Special Fund for Topnotch Talent at Henan Agricultural University (grant no. 30500646), and the Soft Science Research Project of Zhengzhou (grant no. 2020RKXF0098).
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Zhen Chen collected the data and related materials. Bing Li analyzed the data and wrote the manuscript. Shuwei Jia and Xiangyang Ye analyzed the data and polished the language.
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Chen, Z., Li, B., Jia, S. et al. Modeling and simulation analysis of vehicle pollution and carbon reduction management model based on system dynamics. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 14745–14759 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23245-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23245-9