Abstract
Quantitatively, analyzing the driving mechanism of vegetation coverage change is of important significance for regional ecological environment evaluation and protection. Based on time series NDVI data and meteorological data of the Yellow River Basin (Inner Mongolia Section), the trend and significance of climate factors and vegetation coverage in the YRB (IMS) and four sub-regions (the Hetao Irrigation district, the Ten Tributaries region, the Hunhe river basin, and the Dahei river basin) from 2000 to 2018 were ascertained. We used geographic detectors to quantitatively analyze the effects of detection factors on vegetation coverage change. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of vegetation variation and climate change had obvious spatial heterogeneity. During 2000–2018, the regions with vegetation improvement (72.87%) were much greater than that with degradation (26.55%) in the YRB (IMS). Annual precipitation change (4.55%) was a key driving factor to the vegetation coverage change in the YRB (IMS). Among the four sub-regions, the land use conversion type demonstrated the largest explanatory power, but the q values of the four sub-regions were different from each other. The results of the interaction showed that land use change and annual precipitation change were the major driving factors that influenced regional vegetation coverage change. This study has an important reference value for improving the basin’s ecological environment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Not applicable.
References
Bai XL, Ji SX, Wang LX, Chen ZX, Chang XL (2019) Response of change trend of vegetation productivity to land use conversion in Ten Tributaries Basin of Ordos. J Nat Resour 34(06):1186–1195. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20190605
Chen XJ, Mo XG, Hu S, Liu SX (2017) Contributions of climate change and human activities to ET and GPP trends over North China plain from 2000 to 2014. J Geogr Sci 27(6):661–680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-017-1399-z
Chen YZ, Chen LY, Cheng Y, Ju WM, Chen HYH, Ruan HH (2020) Afforestation promotes the enhancement of forest LAI and NPP in China. For Ecol Manage 462:117990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2020.117990
Chuai XW, Huang XJ, Wang WJ, Bao G (2013) NDVI, temperature and precipitation changes and their relationships with different vegetation types during 1998–2007 in Inner Mongolia, China. Int J Climatol 33(7):1696–1706. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3543
Daham A, Han DW, Rico-Ramirez M, Marsh A (2018) Analysis of NDVI variability in response to precipitation and air temperature in different regions of Iraq, using MODIS vegetation indices. Environ Earth Sci 77(10):389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7560-x
Du JQ, Fu Q, Fang SF, Wu JH, He P, Quan ZJ (2019) Effects of rapid urbanization on vegetation cover in the metropolises of China over the last four decades. Ecol Indic 107:105458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105458
Feng DR, Wang JM, Fu MC, Liu GC, Zhang M, Tang RB (2019) Spatiotemporal variation and influencing factors of vegetation cover in the ecologically fragile areas of China from 2000 to 2015: a case study in Shaanxi Province. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(28):28977–28992. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06096-9
Gao YD, Qiao RR, Ji SX, Bai XL, Wang LX, Chang XL (2021) Changes and driving factors of crops planting structure in Hetao Irrigation Region in Inner Mongolia. J Desert Res 41(03):110–117. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2020.00123
Gutman G, Ignatov A (1998) The derivation of the green vegetation fraction from NOAA/AVHRR data for use in numerical weather prediction models. Int J Remote Sen 19(8):1533–1543. https://doi.org/10.1080/014311698215333
Han JJ, Wang JP, Chen L, Xiang JY, Ling ZY, Li QK, Wang EL (2021) Driving factors of desertification in Qaidam Basin, China: an 18-year analysis using the geographic detector model. Ecol Indic 124:107404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107404
Hao RF, Yu DY, Liu YP, Liu Y, Qiao JM, Wang X, Du JS (2017) Impacts of changes in climate and landscape pattern on ecosystem services. Sci Total Environ 579:718–728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.036
Hao J, Xu GY, Luo L, Zhang Z, Yang HL, Li HY (2020) Quantifying the relative contribution of natural and human factors to vegetation coverage variation in coastal wetlands in China. Catena 188:104429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.104429
Hilker T, Natsagdorj E, Waring RH, Lyapustin A, Wang YJ (2014) Satellite observed widespread decline in Mongolian grasslands largely due to overgrazing. Glob Change Biol 20(2):418–428. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12365
Holben BN (1986) Characteristics of maximum-value composite images from temporal-AVHRR data. Int J Remote Sens 7(11):1417–1434. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431168608948945
Hu MM, Xia BC (2019) A significant increase in the normalized difference vegetation index during the rapid economic development in the Pearl River Delta of China. Land Degrad Dev 30(4):359–370. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3221
Hua WJ, Chen HS, Zhou LM, Xie ZH, Qin MH, Li X, Ma HD, Huang QH, Sun SL (2017) Observational quantification of climatic and human influences on vegetation greening in China. Remote Sens 9(5):425. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9050425
Huang X, Ma L, Liu YX, Wang JR, Liu DH (2016) Variations and periodic symmetry of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River basin during 1951–2012. J Nat Resour 31(06):1027–1040. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20150045
Huang K, Zhang YJ, Zhu JT, Liu YJ, Zu JX, Zhang J (2016b) The influences of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Remote Sens 8(10):876. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8100876
Jiang WG, Yuan LH, Wang WJ, Cao R, Zhang YF, Shen WM (2015) Spatio-temporal analysis of vegetation variation in the yellow river basin. Ecol Indic 51:117–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.07.031
Jiang LG, Liu Y, Wu S, Yang C (2021) Analyzing ecological environment change and associated driving factors in China based on NDVI time series data. Ecol Indic 129:107933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107933
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London
Lawley V, Lewis M, Clarke K, Ostendorf B (2016) Site-based and remote sensing methods for monitoring indicators of vegetation condition: an Australian review. Ecol Indic 60:1273–1283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.03.021
Li CH, Yang ZF (2004) Spatio-temporal changes of NDVI and their relations with precipitation and runoff in the Yellow River Basin. Geogr Res 23:753–759
Li JJ, Peng SZ, Li Z (2017) Detecting and attributing vegetation changes on China’s Loess Plateau. Agric for Meteorol 247:260–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.08.005
Li Y, Xie ZX, Qin YC, Zheng ZC (2019) Responses of the Yellow River basin vegetation: climate change. Int J Clim Chang Strateg Manag 11(4):483–498. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2018-0064
Liu YL, Lei HM (2015) Responses of natural vegetation dynamics to climate drivers in China from 1982 to 2011. Remote Sens 7(8):10243–10268. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70810243
Liu XX, Tian ZX, Zhang AB, Zhao AZ, Liu HX (2019) Impacts of climate on spatiotemporal variations in vegetation NDVI from 1982–2015 in Inner Mongolia. China Sustain 11(3):768. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030768
Ma YH, Fan SY, Zhou LH, Dong ZY, Zhang KC, Feng JM (2007) The temporal change of driving factors during the course of land desertification in arid region of North China: the case of Minqin County. Environ Geol 51(6):999–1008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0369-z
Ma QM, Long YP, Jia XP, Wang HB, Li YS (2019) Vegetation response to climatic variation and human activities to climatic variation and human activities on the Ordos Plateau from 2000 to 2016. Environ Earth Sci 78(24):709. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8732-z
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Miao CY, Yang L, Chen XH, Gao Y (2012) The vegetation cover dynamics (1982–2006) in different erosion regions of the Yellow River Basin, China. Land Degrad Dev 23(1):62–71. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.1050
Mu SJ, Chen YZ, Li JL, Ju WM, Odeh IOA, Zou XL (2013) Grassland dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in Inner Mongolia, China between 1985 and 2009. Rangeland J 35(3):315–329. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12042
Peng SS, Piao SL, Ciais P, Myneni RB, Chen AP, Chevallier F, Dolman AJ, Janssens IA, Penuelas J, Zhang GX, Vicca S, Wan SQ, Wang SP, Zeng H (2013) Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation. Nature 501(7465):88–92. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12434
Peng WF, Kuang TT, Tao S (2019) Quantifying influences of natural factors on vegetation NDVI changes based on geographical detector in Sichuan, western China. J Clean Prod 233:353–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.355
Potter CS, Brooks V (1998) Global analysis of empirical relations between annual climate and seasonality of NDVI. Int J Remote Sens 19(15):2921–2948. https://doi.org/10.1080/014311698214352
Qu ZY, Yang X, Huang YJ (2015) Analysis and assessment of water-saving project of Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia. Trans Chin Soc Agric Mach 46(04):70-76+112. https://doi.org/10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2015.04.012
Qu S, Wang LC, Lin AW, Zhou HJ, Yuan MX (2018) What drives the vegetation restoration in Yangtze River basin, China: climate change or anthropogenic factors? Ecol Indic 90:438–450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.029
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Shen Q, Gao GY, Han F, Xiao FY, Ma Y, Wang S, Fu BJ (2018) Quantifying the effects of human activities and climate variability on vegetation cover change in a hyper-arid endorheic basin. Land Degrad Dev 29(10):3294–3304. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3085
Stow D, Petersen A, Hope A, Engstrom R, Coulter L (2007) Greenness trends of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s: comparison of two NDVI data sets from NOAA AVHRR systems. Int J Remote Sens 28(21):4807–4822. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160701264284
Sun R, Liu CM, Zhu QJ (2001) Relationship between the fractional vegetation cover change and rainfall in the Yellow River Basin. Acta Geogr Sin 56(6):667–672
Tian HJ, Cao CX, Chen W, Bao SN, Yang B, Myneni RB (2015) Response of vegetation activity dynamic to climatic change and ecological restoration programs in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2012. Ecol Eng 82:276–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2015.04.098
Tian F, Liu LZ, Yang JH, Wu JJ (2021) Vegetation greening in more than 94% of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) region in China during the 21st century caused jointly by warming and anthropogenic activities. Ecol Indic 125:107479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107479
Vereecken H, Kollet S, Simmer C (2010) Patterns in soil–vegetation–atmosphere systems: monitoring, modeling, and data assimilation. Vadose Zone J 9(4):821–827. https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2010.0122
Wang XM, Zhang CX, Hasi E, Dong ZB (2010) Has the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt program solved the desertification and dust storm problems in arid and semiarid China? J Arid Environ 74(1):13–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.08.001
Wang J, Wang KL, Zhang MY, Zhang CH (2015) Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover in hilly southern China. Ecol Eng 81:451–461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2015.04.022
Wang JF, Zhang TL, Fu BJ (2016) A measure of spatial stratified heterogeneity. Ecol Indic 67:250–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.02.052
Wang JF, Xu CD (2017) Geodetector: principle and prospective. Acta Geogr Sin 72(01):116–134. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201701010
Wang LX, Cai MY, Bai XL, Ji SX, Jia B, Feng XW, Chang XL (2021) Estimation of irrigation area in Hetao Irrigation District based on MODIS analysis. J Inn Mong Norm Univ Nat Sci Ed 50(01):44–52. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-8735.2021.01.007
Wen ZF, Wu SJ, Chen JL, Lu MQ (2017) NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. China Sci Total Environ 574:947–959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.049
Wu ZT, Wu JJ, Liu JH, He B, Lei TJ, Wang QF (2013) Increasing terrestrial vegetation activity of ecological restoration program in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China. Ecol Eng 52:37–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2012.12.040
Wu YJ, Dong SC, Huang HS, Zhai J, Li Y, Huang DX (2018) Quantifying uban land expansion dynamics through improved land management institution model: application in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, China. Land Use Pol 78:386–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.018
Xu G, Zhang HF, Chen BZ, Zhang HR, Innes JL, Wang GY, Yan JW, Zheng YH, Zhu ZC, Myneni RB (2014) Changes in vegetation growth dynamics and relations with climate over China’s Landmass from 1982 to 2011. Remote Sens 6(4):3263–3283. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6043263
Xie BN, Jia XX, Qin ZF, Shen J, Chang QR (2016) Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau, China: 1982–2011. Reg Envir Chang 16(6):1583–1594. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0881-3
Yan XX, Li J, Shao Y, Hu ZQ, Yang Z, Yin SQ, Cui LY (2020) Driving forces of grassland vegetation changes in Chen Barag Banner. Inner Mongolia Gisci Remote Sens 57(6):753–759. https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2020.1794395
Yang Z, Shen YY, Jiang HW, Feng FS, Dong QL (2021) Assessment of the environment changes in arid and semiarid areas using long time-series Landsat images. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(37):52147–52156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14417-0
You NS, Meng JJ, Sun MT (2019) Spatio-temporal change of NDVI and its relationship with climate in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin from 2000 to 2015. Acta Sci Nat Univ Pekin 55:171–181. https://doi.org/10.13209/j.0479-8023.2018.075
Yuan J, Xu YP, Xiang J, Wu L, Wang DQ (2019) Spatiotemporal variation of vegetation coverage and its associated influence factor analysis in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(32):32866–32879. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06378-2
Zhang Y, Peng CH, Li WZ, Tian LX, Zhu QA, Chen H, Fang XQ, Zhang GL, Liu GB, Mu XM, Li ZB, Li SQ, Yang YZ, Wang J, Xiao XM (2016) Multiple afforestation programs accelerate the greenness in the ‘Three North’ region of China from 1982 to 2013. Ecol Indic 61:404–412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.09.041
Zhang XL, Huang XR (2019) Human disturbance caused stronger influence on global vegetation change than climate change. PeerJ 7:e7763. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7763
Zhang W, Wang L C, Xiang F F, Qin W M, Jiang W X (2020a) Vegetation dynamics and the relations with climate change at multiple time scales in the Yangtze River and Yellow River Basin, China. Ecol. Indic., 110https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105892
Zhang M, Wang JM, Li SJ, Feng DR, Cao EL (2020b) Dynamic changes in landscape pattern in a large-scale opencast coal mine area from 1986 to 2015: a complex network approach. CATENA 194:104738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104738
Zhao L, Dai AG, Dong B (2018) Changes in global vegetation activity and its driving factors during 1982–2013. Agric for Meteorol 249:198–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.11.013
Zhou HJ, Van Rompaey A, Wang JA (2009) Detecting the impact of the “Grain for Green” program on the mean annual vegetation cover in the Shaanxi province, China using SPOT-VGT NDVI data. Land Use Pol 26(4):954–960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.11.006
Zhu LJ, Meng JJ, Zhu LK (2020) Applying geodetector to disentangle the contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to NDVI variations in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin. Ecol Indic 117:106545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106545
Funding
This research was supported by the Major Science and Technology Projects of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region [grant number 2020ZD0009] and the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41971232].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
XD: investigation, methodology, and writing-original draft. SH: Conceptualization, investigation, and writing-review and editing. CZ: Conceptualization, Supervision and project administration. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Deng, X., Hu, S. & Zhan, C. Attribution of vegetation coverage change to climate change and human activities based on the geographic detectors in the Yellow River Basin, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 44693–44708 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18744-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18744-8