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Effects of population flow on regional carbon emissions: evidence from China

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Abstract

Population flow can affect regional carbon emissions. Based on the analysis of the dual transmission mechanism of population flow and its effect on carbon emissions, this paper empirically studies the impact of population flow and other related factors on China’s carbon emissions through panel econometric regression and heterogeneity analysis with fixed effect model. The results show that, firstly, in the long or short term, China’s population flow can reduce the growth of carbon emissions. Secondly, the regional population aging and knowledge structure improvement caused by population flow are helpful to reduce carbon emissions, while the regional urbanization improvement caused by population flow is not significantly correlated with the growth of household miniaturization on carbon emissions. Thirdly, from the perspective of heterogeneous geographical divisions, population flow promotes the increase of carbon emissions in the northwest region of the Hu Huanyong Line (Hu Line), while it is opposite in the southeast region of Hu Line. Fourthly, China’s consumption level, per capita GDP, energy intensity, and energy consumption structure have contributed to the growth of carbon emissions, while carbon intensity has a negative effect on carbon emissions. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspective of coordinating population policy and energy conservation and emission reduction policy.

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Data Availability

The datas that support the findings of this study are available from the China Environmental Yearbook, the China Environmental Statistical Yearbook, the China Energy Statistical Yearbook, the China Statistical Yearbook, the China Demographic Yearbook, EPS database and China National Bureau of statistics.

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Funding

This research was jointly supported by the Open Funds of Regional Innovation Capabilities Monitoring and Analysis Soft Science Research Base of Hubei Province (Grant No. HBQY2021z05) and the Soft Science Research Projects of Hubei Science and Technology Support Plan (Grant No. 2017ADC138).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Lei Wu, Xiaoyan Jia, Li Gao & Yuanqi Zhou

Authors
  1. Lei Wu
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  2. Xiaoyan Jia
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  3. Li Gao
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  4. Yuanqi Zhou
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Contributions

Lei Wu: Conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing

Xiaoyan Jia: Methodology, formal analysis, writing—original draft

Li Gao: Conceptualization, writing—review and editing

Yuanqi Zhou: Writing—review and editing, thought inspiration

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Correspondence to Lei Wu or Li Gao.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Responsible Editor: Ilhan Ozturk

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Highlights:

• Analyze the transmission path and dual transmission mechanism of population factors affecting carbon emissions from the perspective of population flow.

• Comprehensively discuss the effects of different types of population structure changes and other factors on carbon emissions caused by population flow.

• Hu Line is used to examine the impact of regional heterogeneity on the carbon emission effect of population flow.

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Wu, L., Jia, X., Gao, L. et al. Effects of population flow on regional carbon emissions: evidence from China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 62628–62639 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15131-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15131-7

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