Abstract
This study utilizes a threefold empirical analysis in order to examine the relationship between income and water equity in Bulgaria, the fastest shrinking country in the world in terms of population, and the most unequal member of the EU in terms of regional income distribution. First, in line with this goal, the income elasticity of regional water demand in the country is calculated using the Tapio decoupling model. Second, the WPAT equation which measures the weighted impacts of population, per capita income and intensity on water demand, is utilized. And finally, using the local dissimilarity index, spatial differences in access to water by region are measured. Underscoring the essence of regional level analyses based on specific decomposed sub-groups, findings are thus compatible with the economic and demographic characteristics of the regions handled in the study. In the northern regions where income and population levels are relatively low, during periods when income and water demand both increase, the rise in water demand is usually higher than the increase in income; conversely, when income decreases, the water demand also falls. The effect of population dominates the changes in water demand in the northern regions, with the exception of the Northwestern Region, where water intensity is the leading factor, possibly because the Balkans’ largest nuclear power plant is located in the region. In the southern regions where income is higher, income has been the most important determinant of water demand, particularly in recent years.
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Notes
At NUTS 2 level, there are six regions in Bulgaria: Northwestern (Severozapaden), North Central (Severen), Northeastern (Severoiztochen), Southeastern (Yugoiztochen), Southwestern (Yugozapaden), and South (Yuzhen) Central.
In contrast to high levels of economic activity in the capital Sofia and its vicinity in the Southwestern Region, peripheral districts are lagging behind in economic development. Nevertheless, intra-regional disparities are beyond the scope of this study.
The Pernik district, whose residents are recently reported to have been struggling to meet their basic water needs, is also in the Southwestern Region. There are charges against the former Bulgarian Environmental Minister for diverting water to industrial facilities despite knowing it would affect the drinking water of up to 100,000 people in Pernik (see the articles on Euronews - https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/25/bulgaria-residents-in-pernik-protest-about-water-shortages, Balkan Insight - https://balkaninsight.com/2020/01/21/govt-scrambles-to-tackle-water-crisis-in-bulgarian-city/ and the Sofia Globe - https://sofiaglobe.com/2020/01/27/pernik-water-crisis-bulgarian-prosecutors-charge-two-more-people/fordetails).
The Roma are scattered across the NUTS2 regions in Bulgaria. “More than half of those Bulgarian citizens who identify themselves as Roma by ethnicity and language live in urban centers like the capital city of Sofia, Sliven, Plovdiv, Burgas, Stara Zagora, Pazardjik, Montana, Lom and Dobrich, where they are concentrated in ghettoized neighborhoods” (Vassilev 2004: p. 42). “The European Commission’s 2014 Roma Health Report indicates that around 25 percent of Roma in Bulgaria live in sub-standard housing, 40 percent lack access to a water supply, and 80 percent do not have an indoor bathroom” (Canada: Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, Bulgaria 2015). According to the World Bank and the Open Society Institute’s Crisis Monitoring Survey, the Roma poverty rate is more than 4 times as high as among the Bulgarian population (Bogdanov and Zahariev 2011: pp 5–6).
GDP deflator (2015 = 100) data are obtained from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS
Water consumption is the sum of water delivered to end users from all sectors, water delivered to households, water unbilled, and water losses. Water losses are NSI estimations based on real water losses during the transportation, unauthorized consumption, and measurement errors.
In the original IPAT equation, T—standing for technology—refers to the exploitation of resources. In the interpretation of IPAT in order to calculate the weighted impacts of population, economic growth, and exploitation of water, therefore, water withdrawal/GDP is adapted as a proxy for technology.
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Tasbasi, A. A threefold empirical analysis of the relationship between regional income inequality and water equity using Tapio decoupling model, WPAT equation, and the local dissimilarity index: evidence from Bulgaria. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 4352–4365 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10828-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10828-7