Abstract
The transport sector is the fourth largest industrial CO2 emitter in China, next to power sector, iron and steel industries, and nonmetallic mineral product industry, and plays an important role in reducing China’s CO2 emissions. In this study, a temporal decomposition analysis model, i.e., Logistic Mean Division Index (LMDI), is developed to analyze the influencing factors of CO2 emissions in China’s transport sector during 2000–2015. Then, a multi-regional spatial decomposition model is employed to identify the key factors to induce the differences in CO2 emissions of China’s 30 regional transport sectors in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. Based on the empirical results, we find that both in the temporal and spatial perspectives, the main factors that affect CO2 emissions in the transport sector are the same ones. From the temporal perspective, the income effect is the dominant factor increasing CO2 emissions of transport sector, while energy intensity effect and transportation structure effect are the key influencing factors that curb the CO2 emissions of China’s transport sector, during the whole study period. From the spatial perspective, the income effect, energy intensity effect, and transportation structure effect are the key influencing factors that enlarge the gap of CO2 emissions of various transport sectors in the key study years. More importantly, the less-developed regions and high energy intensity regions (i.e., the lower energy efficiency regions) are identified to have the great potential to reduce CO2 emissions of transport sector. Therefore, differentiated mitigation measures and interregional collaborations are encouraged to reduce transport sector’s CO2 emissions in China.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Achour H, Belloumi M (2016) Decomposing the influencing factors of energy consumption in Tunisian transportation sector using the LMDI method. Transp Policy 52:64–71
Ang BW (2005) The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide. Energy Policy 33(7):867–871
Ang BW (2015) LMDI decomposition approach: a guide for implementation. Energy Policy 86:233–238
Ang BW, Liu FL (2001) A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation. Energy Policy 26:537–548
China Transportation & Communications Yearbook Publishing House 2015 Beijing, China
Clarke J, Heinonen J, Ottelin J (2017) Emissions in a decarbonized economy? Global lessons from a carbon footprint analysis of Iceland. J Clean Prod 166:1175–1186
Fernández González P, Landajo M, Presno MJ (2014) Multilevel LMDI decomposition of changes in aggregate energy consumption. A cross country analysis in the EU-27. Energy Policy 68:576–584
Hao L, Han W et al (2014) Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: a review. Energy 68:783–793
IEA (2015) World Energy Outlook 2015. International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris
IEA (2017) World Energy balances & CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. (International Energy Agency), Paris
IPCC (2006) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges. Accessed 26 Oct 2018
Kaya Y (1989) Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth: interpretation of proposed scenarios. Presentation to the energy and industry subgroup, response strategies working group of IPCCs, Paris
Li Y, Li B, Li W, et al (2016a) Scenario analysis of CO2 and pollutant emission mitigation potential for China’s road transportation sector. Journal of Tongji University
Li W, Li H, Zhang H et al (2016b) The analysis of CO2 emissions and reduction potential in China’s transport sector. Math Probl Eng 63(2):113–154. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1043717
Li H, Zhao Y, Qiao X et al (2017) Identifying the driving forces of national and regional CO2 emissions in China: based on temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models. Energy Econ 68:522–538
Lin B, Ahmad I (2016) Energy substitution effect on transport sector of Pakistan based on trans-log production function. Renew Sust Energ Rev 56:1182–1193
Lin B, Xie C (2016) Energy substitution effect on transport industry of China-based on trans-log production function. Energy Policy 67:213–222
Lin B, Zhang Z (2016) Carbon emissions in China’s cement industry: a sector and policy analysis. Renew Sust Energ Rev 58:1387–1394
Liu Z, Li L, Zhang Y (2015) Investigating the CO2 emission differences among China’s transport sectors and their influencing factors. Nat Hazards 77(2):1323–1343
National Bureau of Statistics of China (2015) China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Beijing
Peng T, Zhou X, Yuan Z et al (2018) Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model. Appl Energy 222:313–328
Research Council UK (2017) China Emission Accounts and Datasets [EB/OL]. [2017-06-12]. Http://www.ceads.net/.
Scholl L, Schipper L, Kiang N (1996) CO2 emissions from passenger transport: a comparison of international trends from 1973 to 1992. Energy Policy 24(1):17–30
Sim J (2017) The influence of new carbon emission abatement goals on the truck-freight transportation sector in South. J Clean Prod 164:153–162
Su B, Ang BW (2016) Multi-region comparisons of emission performance: the structural decomposition analysis approach. Ecol Indic 67:78–87
Tian Y, Zhu Q, Geng Y (2013) An analysis of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry. Energy Policy 56:352–361
Timilsina GR, Shrestha A (2009a) Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: underlying factors and policy options. Energy Policy 37(11):4523–4539
Timilsina GR, Shrestha A (2009b) Factors affecting transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Latin American and Caribbean countries: an LMDI decomposition analysis. Int J Energy Res 33(4):396–414
UNFCCC (2015) Adoption of the Paris agreement (1/CP.21). United Nations framework convention on climate change, Paris
Wadud Z (2016) Diesel demand in the road freight sector in the UK: estimates for different vehicle types. Appl Energy 165:849–857
Wang X, Lin B (2016) How to reduce CO2 emissions in China’s iron and steel industry. Renew Sust Energ Rev 57:1496–1505
Wang T, Lin B (2019) Fuel consumption in road transport: a comparative study of China and OECD countries. J Clean Prod 206:156–170
Wang C, Cai W, Lu X et al (2007) CO2 mitigation scenarios in China’s road transport sector. Energy Convers Manag 48(7):2110–2118
Wang W, Zhang M, Zhou M (2011) Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China. Energy 36(10):5909–5915
Xu B, Lin B (2015) Factors affecting carbon dioxide CO2 emissions in China’s transport sector: a dynamic nonparametric additive regression model. J Clean Prod 101:311–322
Xu B, Lin B (2016) Differences in regional emissions in China’s transport sector: determinants and reduction strategies. Energy Policy 95:459–470
Xu R, Lin B (2017) Why are there large regional differences in CO2 emissions? Evidence from China’s manufacturing industry. J Clean Prod 140:1330–1343
Xu B, Lin B (2018) Investigating the differences in CO2, emissions in the transport sector across Chinese provinces: evidence from a quantile regression model. J Clean Prod 175:109–122
Ye L, Bao L, Wen L et al (2016) Scenario analysis of CO2 and pollutant emission mitigation potential for China’s road transportation sector. Journal of Tongji University
Zhao X, Zhang X, Shao S et al (2016) Decoupling CO2 emissions and industrial growth in China over 1993–2013: the role of investment. Energy Econ 60:275–292
Zhao Y, Li H, Zhang Z et al (2017) Decomposition and scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry: based on LMDI method. Nat Hazards 86(2):645–668
Funding
This study was financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 714721183), and research on the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emission, and economic growth in Shanxi province (No. 2016045).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, K., Liu, X. & Yao, J. Identifying the driving forces of CO2 emissions of China’s transport sector from temporal and spatial decomposition perspectives. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26, 17383–17406 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05076-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05076-3