Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds—the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area—are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds—the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds—are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander RB, Elliott AH, Shankar U, McBride GB (2002) Estimating the sources and transport of nutrients in the Waikato River Basin, New Zealand. Water Resour Res 38:4-1–4-23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beckert KA, Fisher TR, O'Neil JM, Jesien RV (2011) Characterization and comparison of stream nutrients, land use, and loading patterns in Maryland coastal bay watersheds. Water Air Soil Pollut 221:255–273

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Caraco NF (2001) Human impact on erodable phosphorus and eutrophication: a global perspective. Bioscience 51:227–234

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennion H, Johnes PJ, Ferrier RC, Phillips G, Haworth EY (2005) A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories. Freshw Biol 50:1651–1670

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Changjiang Water Resources Commission (2016) Sediment bulletin of the Yangtze River (2003–2013). Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen X (2015) Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone Planning Approved as a National Development Strategy. http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/09/12/4161s895756.htm. Accessed 5 Apr 2017

  • Chen D, Lu J, Wang H, Shen Y, Kimberley MO (2010) Seasonal variations of nitrogen and phosphorus retention in an agricultural drainage river in East China. Environ Sci Pollut R 17:312–320

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Teng Y, Wang J (2013) Load estimation and source apportionment of nonpoint source nitrogen and phosphorus based on integrated application of SLURP model, ECM, and RUSLE: a case study in the Jinjiang River, China. Environ Monit Assess 185:2009–2021

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cunha DGF, Do Carmo Calijuri M, Dodds WK (2014) Trends in nutrient and sediment retention in Great Plains reservoirs (USA). Environ Monit Assess 186:1143–1155

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • David GS, Carvalho ED, Lemos D, Silveira AN, Dall'Aglio-Sobrinho M (2015) Ecological carrying capacity for intensive tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) cage aquaculture in a large hydroelectrical reservoir in Southeastern Brazil. Aquac Eng 66:30–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dillon PJ, Rigler FH (1974) A test of a simple nutrient budget model predicting the phosphorus concentration in lake water. J Fish Res Board Can 31:1771–1778

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gao F (2014) Research on water environment carrying capacity and control scheme of the typical lake: a case study of the westside of Hongze lake. Dissertation, Nanjing Normal University (in Chinese)

  • Gao C, Zhang T (2010) Eutrophication in a Chinese context: understanding various physical and socio-economic aspects. Ambio 39:385–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gu L (2015) China economy enters ‘new normal’ eyeing 7 pct growth rate: G20. http://www.ecns.cn/business/2015/09-06/179908.shtml. Accessed 5 Apr 2017

  • Han H, Bosch N, Allan JD (2011) Spatial and temporal variation in phosphorus budgets for 24 watersheds in the Lake Erie and Lake Michigan basins. Biogeochemistry 102:45–58

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hwang S, Hwang S, Park S, Lee S (2016) Examining the relationships between watershed urban land use and stream water quality using linear and generalized additive models. Water 8:155

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hunan Province (2016) Hunan water resources bulletin 2004–2014. Hunan Provincial Water Resources Department, Changsha (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansson TR, Nordvarg L (2002) Empirical mass balance models calibrated for freshwater fish farm emissions. Aquaculture 212:191–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnes PJ (1996) Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach. J Hydrol 183:323–349

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Johnes PJ, Foy R, Butterfield D, Haygarth PM (2007) Land use scenarios for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support ‘good ecological status’ in surface freshwaters. Soil Use Manag 231:176–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirchner WB, Dillon PJ (1975) An empirical method of estimating the retention of phosphorus in lakes. Water Resour Res 11:182–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lai X, Jiang J, Huang Q (2012) Pattern of impoundment effects and influencing mechanism of Three Gorges Project on water regime of Lake Dongting. J Lake Sci 24:178–184 (in Chinese)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li H (2015) Dongting Lake Ecological Economy Zone. http://eng.changde.gov.cn/art/2015/10/31/art_66490_1680261.html. Accessed 5 Apr 2017

  • Li X, Lu J, Qian M, Wang X, Fan Z, Wang S (2014) Study on pollution loading and water environmental capacity in watershed—a case study of Taiping Lake Basin, Anhui Province, China. China Environ Sci 34:2063–2070 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu R, Yang Z, Shen Z, Yu SL, Ding X, Wu X, Liu F (2009) Estimating nonpoint source pollution in the upper Yangtze River using the export coefficient model, remote sensing, and geographical information system. J Hydraul Eng ASCE 135:698–704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu B, Liu H, Zhang B, Bi J (2013) Modeling nutrient release in the Tai Lake Basin of China: source identification and policy implications. Environ Manag 51:724–737

  • Ma G, Wang S (2015) Temporal and spatial distribution changing characteristics of exogenous pollution load into Dianchi Lake, Southwest of China. Environ Earth Sci 74:3781–3793

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ma X, Li Y, Zhang M, Zheng F, Du S (2011) Assessment and analysis of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Hubei Province, China. Sci Total Environ 412-413:154–161

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Matias N, Johnes PJ (2012) Catchment phosphorous losses: an export coefficient modelling approach with scenario analysis for water management. Water Resour Manag 26:1041–1064

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Environmental Protection of China (2002a) Discharge standard of pollutants for municipal wastewater treatment plant (GB18918—2002). China Planning Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

  • Ministry of Environmental Protection of China (2002b) Environmental quality standards for surface water (GB3838-2002). China Environmental Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

  • Mourad DSJ, Van Der Perk M, Piirimäe K (2006) Changes in nutrient emissions, fluxes and retention in a north-eastern European lowland drainage basin. Environ Monit Assess 120:415–448

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (2016) China statistical yearbook 2016. China Statistics Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • National Development and Reform Commission (2014) Dongting lake ecological economic zone plan. http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201405/t20140512_611215.html. Accessed 5 April 2017 (in Chinese)

  • Ni Z, Wang S (2015) Economic development influences on sediment-bound nitrogen and phosphorus accumulation of lakes in China. Environ Sci Pollut R 22:18561–18573

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • OECD (1982) Eutrophication of waters: monitoring, assessment and control. Organization for Economic, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Omernik JM (1976) The influence of land use on stream nutrient levels. Report. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C

    Google Scholar 

  • Pang Y, Lu G (2010) The theory and application of the calculation of water environment carrying capacity. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Pulatsü S, Aydin F (1997) Water quality and phosphorus budget of Mogan Lake, Turkey. Acta Hydrochim Hydrobiol 25:128–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qin D, Luo Y, Huang Z, Hu J, Fan J, Liao Y (2012) Pollution status and source analysis of water environment in Dongting Lake. Environ Sci Technol 35:193–198 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Reckhow KH, Simpson JT (1980) A procedure using modeling and error analysis for the prediction of lake phosphorus concentration from land use information. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 37:1439–1448

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rodrigues-Filho J, Degani R, Soares F, Periotto N, Blanco F, Abe D, Matsumura-Tundisi T, Tundisi J, Tundisi J (2015) Alterations in land uses based on amendments to the Brazilian Forest Law and their influences on water quality of a watershed. Braz J Biol 75:125–134

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Russell MJ, Weller DE, Jordan TE, Sigwart KJ, Sullivan KJ (2008) Net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs: spatial and temporal variability in the Chesapeake Bay region. Biogeochemistry 88:285–304

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Statistical Bureau of Guizhou Province (2014) Statistical Yearbooks of Guizhou Province (2001, 2011). China Statistics Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistical Bureau of Hunan Province (2014) Statistical Yearbooks of Hunan Province (2007, 2014). China Statistics Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistical Bureau of Jingzhou Prefecture (2014) Statistical Yearbooks of Jinzhou Prefecture (2001, 2011). China Statistics Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Strokal M, Kroeze C, Wang M, Ma L (2017) Reducing future river export of nutrients to coastal waters of China in optimistic scenarios. Sci Total Environ 579:517–528

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tan H (2013) The succession and reason analysis of hydrological environment in the Dongting Lake in recent 50 years. Dissertation, Hunan Agricultural University (in Chinese)

  • The Office of the Leading Group on the First National Census on Pollution Sources, China’s State Council (2007) Handbook on the first national census on pollution sources. Report. China's State Council, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Tian Z, Zheng B, Wang L, Li L, Wang X, Li H, Norra S (2017) Long term (1997–2014) spatial and temporal variations in nitrogen in Dongting Lake, China. PLoS ONE 12(2):e0170993. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170993

  • Trisurat Y, Eawpanich P, Kalliola R (2016) Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand. Environ Res 147:611–620

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, Limpiada R, Espaldon V, Mastura S (2002) Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environ Manag 30:391–405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vollenweider RA (1975) Input-output models: with special reference to the phosphorus loading concept in limnology. Schweiz Z Hydrol 37:53–84

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Gao J, Ma X, Li D (2015) Application of modified export coefficient method on the load estimation of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of soil and water loss in semiarid regions. Environ Sci Pollut R 22:10647–10660

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Xie Y, Zhang C, Jiang Y (2014) The eco-environment succession of the Dongting Lake wetland. Hunan Science & Technology Press, Changsha (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang L, Qin B, Hu W, Luo L, Song Y (2007) The atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients in Taihu Lake. Oceanol Limnol Sin 38:104–110 (in Chinese)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yang W, Wang X, Liu Y, Gabor S, Boychuk L, Badiou P (2010) Simulated environmental effects of wetland restoration scenarios in a typical Canadian prairie watershed. Wetl Ecol Manag 18:269–279

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yilmaz GB, Sivri N (2014) Estimation of nutrient loads in Ergene basin through GIS. Fresenius Environ Bull 23:3212–3221

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yoshimura C, Zhou M, Kiem AS, Fukami K, Prasantha HHA, Ishidaira H, Takeuchi K (2009) 2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River basin using a distributed hydrological model. Sci Total Environ 407:5356–5366

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yu H, Zhang L, Yan S, Li H, Xu J (2011) Atmospheric wet deposition characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients in Taihu Lake and contributions to the lake. Res Environ Sci 24:1210–1219 (in Chinese)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yu D, Yu S, He Q, Li C, Wei C (2016) Monitoring of Dongting Lake atrophy in the past 100 years by combining historical map and remote sensing technology. Remote Sens Land Resour 28:116–122 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang S (2007) The research on assessment, prediction and restoration of Dongting Lake ecosystem based on health theory. Dissertation, Hunan University (in Chinese)

  • Zhao G, Tian P, Mu X, Gao J, Li H, Zhang Z (2012) Estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Xitiaoxi catchment using PCRaster software. Adv Water Sci 23:80–86 (in Chinese)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The spatial data on the boundaries of the Dongting Lake watershed and the sub-watersheds are provided by the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure (www.geodata.cn). We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

Funding

This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0505702), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601556), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KFJ-EW-ZY-004).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 18 Shuangqing Road, Beijing, 100085, China

    Ying Hou & Weiping Chen

  2. Hunan Province Environmental Monitoring Center, 118 Wanjiali Middle Road Section 3, Changsha, 410014, China

    Yuehua Liao & Yueping Luo

Authors
  1. Ying Hou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Weiping Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yuehua Liao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yueping Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Weiping Chen.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 808 kb)

ESM 2

(DOCX 23 kb)

ESM 3

(DOCX 40 kb)

ESM 4

(DOCX 71 kb)

Appendix

Table 5 The times, scales, and sources of the data used in this study
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hou, Y., Chen, W., Liao, Y. et al. Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24, 26706–26723 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0138-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0138-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation