Abstract
Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply, incorporating probabilistic drought forecasts, which assists in making decisions regarding the satisfaction of consumptive, non-consumptive and environmental requirements under water scarcity conditions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the risk of failure in multiple stochastic scenarios, which incorporate probabilistic forecasts of drought events based on a Markov chains (MC) model using a recently developed drought index (DI). This methodology was tested in the Machángara river basin located in the south of Ecuador. Results were grouped in integrated satisfaction indexes of the system (DSIG). They demonstrated that the incorporation of probabilistic drought forecasts could better target the projections of simulation scenarios, with a view of obtaining realistic situations instead of optimistic projections that would lead to riskier decisions. Moreover, they contribute to more effective results in order to propose multiple alternatives for prevention and/or mitigation under drought conditions.
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Acknowledgements
This study was part of the doctoral thesis of Avilés A. at the Technical University of Valencia. This research was funded by the University of Cuenca through its Research Department (DIUC) and the Municipal public enterprise of telecommunications, drinking water, sewage and sanitation of Cuenca (ETAPA) through the projects: “Identificación de los procesos hidrometeorológicos que desencadenan inundaciones en la ciudad de Cuenca usando un radar de precipitación” and “Ciclos meteorológicos y evapotranspiración a lo largo de una gradiente altitudinal del Parque Nacional Cajas”. The authors also thank INAMHI and the CBRM for providing the information for this study. The authors wish to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the ERAS project (CTM2016-77804-P). We thank Ángel Vázquez, who helped in the programming of the multiple simulations. Also we thank to the TropiSeca project.
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Avilés, A., Solera Solera, A., Paredes-Arquiola, J. et al. Integrated Methodological Framework for Assessing the Risk of Failure in Water Supply Incorporating Drought Forecasts. Case Study: Andean Regulated River Basin. Water Resour Manage 32, 1209–1223 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1863-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1863-7