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Multivariate Copula-Based Joint Probability Distribution of Water Supply and Demand in Irrigation District

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Abstract

Based on the data series of rainfall, reference crop evapotranspiration and irrigation water from 1970 to 2013 in the Luhun irrigation district of China, the multivariate joint probability of water supply and demand are constructed with student t-copula function. The results show that student t-copula function can indicate the associated dependence structure amongst these variables well, and the constructed multivariate copula-based joint probability distribution reveal the statistical characteristics and occurrence probability of different combinations of water supply and water demand. Moreover, the trivariate joint probability distribution is more reasonable than the bivariate distribution to reflect the water shortage risk, and these joint distribution values of different combinations of water supply and demand can provide the technological support for water shortage risk evaluation in the irrigation district.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Project No. 51309202) and the Key Scientific Research Project in University of Henan Province (No. 15A570011).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Water Resources and Environment, Zhengzhou University, High-tech District, No. 100 Science Road, Zhengzhou City, 450001, Henan Province, China

    Jinping Zhang & Xiaomin Lin

  2. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co. Ltd., Zhengzhou, 450003, China

    Bingtuo Guo

Authors
  1. Jinping Zhang
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  2. Xiaomin Lin
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  3. Bingtuo Guo
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Correspondence to Jinping Zhang.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee. This article does not contain any studies performed by any of the authors. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

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Zhang, J., Lin, X. & Guo, B. Multivariate Copula-Based Joint Probability Distribution of Water Supply and Demand in Irrigation District. Water Resour Manage 30, 2361–2375 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1293-y

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