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Enhancing rare plant population predictions through demographic modeling of seed predation, dispersal, and habitat suitability

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Abstract

Understanding the effects of seed predation, dispersal, and recruitment on the population dynamics of rare plant species is essential for generating effective management strategies. Unfortunately for most rare plants, the parameterization of these processes is limited and generally not included in demographic analyses. This exclusion can lead to biased estimates of vital rates and overall population growth rates, as well as limit inferences about inter-population processes like colonization and demographic rescue that can affect population viability. Based on previous empirical studies from Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg) North Carolina (USA), we constructed a spatially explicit demographic model that accounts for pre-dispersal seed predation, dispersal, and habitat suitability for Lindera subcoriacea (bog spicebush), a rare shrub in the southeastern United States. We demographically modeled three scenarios: S1 did not include any of the three parameters; S2 accounted for seed predation and dispersal; and S3 included all three of the parameters. Results suggested that pre-dispersal seed predation, dispersal, and habitat suitability negatively impact the population growth rates of bog spicebush relative to the naïve demographic model. After 100 annual time steps, scenarios S1, S2, and S3 led to a 96%, 49%, and 1% increase in population size, respectively. In addition, over the course of 100 years, results of scenarios S2 and S3 demonstrated limited increases in site occupancy, with newly occupied areas located < 1 km from previously occupied habitat. Our results suggest additional parameterization of plant demographic models may be an informative endeavor and warranted, even in the absence of empirical data.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Fort Liberty for their financial and logistical support on the project (Project Order #905467). We specifically want to thank Janet Gray, former botanist at Fort Liberty, for invaluable assistance over the years. Thanks also to William Hoffmann for statistical advice, manuscript review, and just being a great mentor.

Funding

Funding was provided by Fort Liberty Military Installation. Fort Liberty, Project Order #905467.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, P.O. Box 9005, Champaign, IL, 61826, USA

    Wade A. Wall, Michael G. Just & Matthew G. Hohmann

  2. Endangered Species Branch, Bldg 0-9125 McKellors Road, Fort Liberty, NC, 28310, USA

    Stacy D. Huskins

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  1. Wade A. Wall
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  2. Michael G. Just
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  3. Stacy D. Huskins
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  4. Matthew G. Hohmann
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Contributions

MGH originally formulated the idea, WAW and MGH developed the methodology, WAW, MGH, and SDH conducted fieldwork, WAW developed the mathematical models and performed the statistical analyses, and WAW, MGH, MGJ, and SDH wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Wade A. Wall.

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Communicated by Hsiao-Hsuan Wang.

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Wall, W.A., Just, M.G., Huskins, S.D. et al. Enhancing rare plant population predictions through demographic modeling of seed predation, dispersal, and habitat suitability. Plant Ecol 225, 63–74 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-023-01376-4

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