Abstract
This paper carries out a time series analysis of the Gini coefficient for disposable income in a sample that includes both advanced and emerging economies. Our results show that, in most countries, inequality has alternated between stationary and nonstationary regimes during the period 1960–2017. These changes coincide with the implementation of structural reforms and with periods of economic and, especially, financial distress. Our findings also suggest that the persistence of income inequality seems to be related to tax progressivity, income for top earners, and working conditions.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
See Makhlouf (2018) for a related study based on the implementation of univariate time series methods that assume a single change in the deterministic component.
Version 7.1 (August 2018), available at https://fsolt.org/swiid/.
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom (UK) and US.
Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa.
± 1.96 times the standard deviation.
This lack of evidence against the null hypothesis may also be related to the fact that unit root test statistics display low power when applied to short time series with a yearly frequency. This problem can be mitigated through the application of panel unit root tests that exploit both the cross-sectional and the temporal dimensions of the data. Nonetheless, the present study is confined to a time series approach because it allows us to analyze the possible presence of persistence changes in disposable income inequality.
Gil-Alana et al. (2019) have also pointed at policies as a source of inequality persistence.
References
Addison, P. (2011). The road to 1945: British politics and the Second World War (Revised ed.). London: Random House. ISBN: 9781446424216.
Alvaredo, F., Chancel, L., Piketty, T., Saez, E., & Zucman, G. (2017). Global inequality dynamics: New findings from WID.world. American Economic Review, 107(5), 404–409. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20171095.
Alvaredo, F., Chancel, L., Piketty, T., Saez, E., & Zucman, G. (2018). World inequality report 2018. Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674984554.
Andrews, D. W. K., & Ploberger, W. (1994). Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica, 62(6), 1383–1414. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951753.
Arestis, P., & Sawyer, M. (2018). Inequality: Trends, causes, consequences, relevant policies International papers in political economy. New York: Springer. ISBN: 9783319912974.
Atkinson, A. B. (2018). Inequality: What can be done?. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674979789.
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659.
Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2003). Inequality and growth: What can the data say? Journal of Economic Growth, 8(3), 267–299. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026205114860.
Banerjee, A., Lumsdaine, R. L., & Stock, J. H. (1992). Recursive and sequential tests of the unit-root and trend-break hypotheses: Theory and international evidence. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 271–287. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509905.
Battisti, M., & Zeira, J. (2018). Inequality and public policy. CEPR Discussion Papers No. 13134.
Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754–1792.
Choi, I. (2015). Almost all about unit roots: Foundations, developments, and applications. Themes in modern econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9781107482500.
Choi, S. (2019). Is the current trend of income inequality sustainable? Sustainability, 11(19), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195329.
Christopoulos, D., & McAdam, P. (2017). On the persistence of cross-country inequality measures. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(1), 255–266. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12374.
Colciago, A., Samarina, A., & de Haan, J. (2019). Central bank policies and income and wealth inequality: A survey. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(4), 1199–1231. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12314.
Cornelson, K., & Siow, A. (2016). A quantitative review of marriage markets: How inequality is remaking the American family by Carbone and Cahn. Journal of Economic Literature, 54(1), 193–207. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.54.1.193.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813–836. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171846.
Engbom, N., & Moser, C. (2018). Earnings inequality and the minimum wage: Evidence from Brazil. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers No. 7. https://doi.org/10.21034/iwp.7.
Ezcurra, R., & Palacios, D. (2016). Terrorism and spatial disparities: Does interregional inequality matter? European Journal of Political Economy, 42, 60–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.01.004.
Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A., & Ramos, X. (2014). Inequality and happiness. Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(5), 1016–1027. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12049.
Gelman, A., & Hill, J. (2007). Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models analytical methods for social research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gil-Alana, L. A., Škare, M., & Pržiklas-Družeta, R. (2019). Measuring inequality persistence in OECD 1963–2008 using fractional integration and cointegration. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 72, 65–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.12.006.
Green, D. A., Riddell, W. C., & St-Hilaire, F. (2016). Income inequality: The Canadian story. Art of the state. Montreal, CA: Institute for Research on Public Policy. ISBN: 9780886453299.
Jenkins, S. P. (2015). World income inequality databases: An assessment of WIID and SWIID. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 13(4), 629–671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-015-9305-3.
Kejriwal, M. (2020). A robust sequential procedure for estimating the number of structural changes in persistence. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), 669–685. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12348.
Kejriwal, M., & Perron, P. (2010). A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 31(5), 305–328. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2010.00666.x.
Kejriwal, M., Perron, P., & Zhou, J. (2013). Wald tests for detecting multiple structural changes in persistence. Econometric Theory, 29(2), 289–323. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466612000357.
Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses. Journal of Econometrics, 148(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.08.019.
Kim, J.-Y. (2000). Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics, 95(1), 97–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00031-7.
Kim, J.-Y. (2003). Inference on segmented cointegration. Econometric Theory, 19(4), 620–639. https://doi.org/10.2307/3533598.
Kurozumi, E. (2005). Detection of structural change in the long-run persistence in a univariate time series. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(2), 181–206. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2004.00116.x.
Leybourne, S., Kim, T.-H., & Robert Taylor, A. M. (2007). Detecting multiple changes in persistence. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 11(3), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1370.
Makhlouf, Y. (2018). Trends in income inequality. Discussion Papers in Economics No. 2018/02. Nottingham Trent University.
Milanovic, B. (2016). Global inequality: A new approach for the age of globalization. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. ISBN 9780674737136.
Moriguchi, C. (2017). Did Japan become an unequal society?: Japan’s income disparity in comparative historical perspective. Economic Review, 68(2), 169–189. https://doi.org/10.15057/28528.
Ng, S., & Perron, P. (1995). Unit root tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90(429), 268–281. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476510.
Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519–1554. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00256.
Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712.
Perron, P. (2006). Dealing with structural breaks. In H. Hassani, T. C. Mills, & K. Patterson (Eds.), Palgrave handbook of econometrics. Volume 1: Econometric theory (pp. 278–352). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN: 9781403941558.
Perron, P., & Yabu, T. (2009). Testing for shifts in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(3), 369–396. https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.07268.
Piketty, T., & Saez, E. (2014). Inequality in the long run. Science, 344(6186), 838–843. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1251936.
Rabiul, I. M., & Madsen, J. B. (2015). Is income inequality persistent? Evidence using panel stationarity tests, 1870–2011. Economics Letters, 127, 17–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.024.
Rajan, R. G. (2011). Fault lines: How hidden fractures still threaten the world economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 9781400839803.
Schustereder, I. (2010). Welfare state change in leading OECD countries: The influence of post-industrial and global economic developments. Ebs Forschung. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8622-1. ISBN: 9783834919014.
Solt, F. (2009). Standardizing the world income inequality database. Social Science Quarterly, 90(2), 231–242. https://doi.org/10.2307/42940584.
Solt, F. (2015). On the assessment and use of cross-national income inequality datasets. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 13(4), 683–691. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-015-9308-0.
Solt, F. (2016). The standardized world income inequality database. Social Science Quarterly, 97(5), 1267–1281. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12295.
Acknowledgements
The authors have benefited from the valuable comments of an anonymous reviewer. Financial support from Gobierno de Aragón (S39-17R ADETRE Research Group), Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-82246-P), and Universidad de Zaragoza/Centro Universitario de la Defensa (Project UZCUD2019-SOC-06) is also acknowledged.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sanso-Navarro, M., Vera-Cabello, M. Income Inequality and Persistence Changes. Soc Indic Res 152, 495–511 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02444-2
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02444-2