Abstract
This paper documents the cycles in corporate investments around national elections in Pakistan from 2000 to 2016. It employed the investment-Q model as the baseline specification with firm fixed effects. Results revealed that during election years, firms tend to reduce investment expenditures as compared to a period having no election after controlling for firm characteristics and economic condition. The study also witnessed pre-election manipulation and the presence of the political business cycle in Pakistan in the period leading up to the national election. This study witnessed variations in the impact of political uncertainty across elections and found more pronounced investment cycle for close contested elections. It also revealed negative changes in investments around national elections for market-friendly and lagged investments; however, results of sensitive industries were insignificant for Pakistan. Furthermore, empirical findings reveal that cashflows levels are consistent with the cautionary effect predicted by the real options theory which proposes that firms hold more cash in the period of high political uncertainty and wait until the uncertainty regarding political uncertainty is resolved. The results of this paper suggest that there should be a consensus between political parties on key economic policies so that even with the change of government; the key policies should remain the same.
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The data used in this research paper is available on request. For data, please contact on.
email(malik.fah@gmail.com).
Notes
Known as ‘General Elections’ in Pakistan where legislature at national and provincial level are elected directly by public voting.
Pakistan Stock Market (PSX) has been termed as world’s 4th best performing stock market, whereas in 2016 it was considered as “Asia’s best performer” (http://bit.ly/psxnews).
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and ANP (Awami National Party) are classified as left-wing centered parties, whereas Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz Group (PML(N)) are classified as right centrist parties. MuttahidaMajlis e Amal (MMA) is classified as a right wing party, while Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is classified as a centrist party.
Abbreviations
- PBH:
-
Political business cycle
- GDP:
-
Gross domestic product
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MFB initiated the work and contributed to the methodology and analysis of data and interpreted results. ZA collected the required data for analysis and review the relevant literature. YBT write and proofread the draft and contributed in the discussion of the results. The author(s) read and approved the final manuscript.
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Akbar, Z., Bashir, M.F. & Tariq, Y.B. An analysis of political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles in Pakistan. Qual Quant 55, 2271–2293 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01116-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01116-8