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The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington, DC

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Abstract

Bicycle usage can be affected by colder weather, precipitation, and excessive heat. The research presented here analyzes the effect of weather on the use of the Washington, DC, bikeshare system, exploiting a dataset of all trips made on the system. Hourly weather data, including temperature, rainfall, snow, wind, fog, and humidity levels are linked to hourly usage data. Statistical models linking both number of users and duration of use are estimated. Further, we evaluate trips from bikeshare stations within one quarter mile of Metro (subway) stations at times when Metro is operating. This allows us to determine whether Metro serves as a back-up option when weather conditions are unfavorable for bicycling. Results show that cold temperatures, rain, and high humidity levels reduce both the likelihood of using bikeshare and the duration of trips. Trips taken from bikeshare stations proximate to Metro stations are affected more by rain than trips not proximate to Metro stations and less likely when it is dark. This information is useful for understanding bicycling behavior and also for those planning bikeshare systems in other cities.

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Notes

  1. At system opening, a 1-day, 5-day, monthly, or yearly membership was available. In the fall of 2011, a 3-day membership option replaced the 5-day membership option.

  2. This was determined from the “install date” attribute of the Capital Bikeshare GIS point dataset (District Department of Transportation 2012). Stations outside of Washington, DC, in neighboring jurisdictions were not included in the dataset.

  3. Count models assume that each event is independent. We are not aware of any tractable methods to estimate a count model with serial correlation. The lags that we use are, in our opinion, sufficient.

  4. Metro opens at 7:00 a.m. instead of 5:00 a.m. on the following holidays that also fall on a weekday: New Year’s Day, Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day, and Christmas Day (Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority 2006).

  5. All coefficients for the month dummy variables in model 4 (Table 3) are negative. This is a result of October 2010 serving as the reference month, which reported particularly longer trips. This is likely a result of a novelty effect due to the newness, and therefore novelty, of the system.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. New York City Department of Transportation, 55 Water Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, 10041, USA

    Kyle Gebhart

  2. Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

    Robert B. Noland

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  1. Kyle Gebhart
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  2. Robert B. Noland
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Correspondence to Robert B. Noland.

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Gebhart, K., Noland, R.B. The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington, DC. Transportation 41, 1205–1225 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-014-9540-7

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