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Migration is the Driving Force of Rapid Aging in Puerto Rico: A Research Brief

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Abstract

The combined effects of declining fertility and increased longevity have accelerated population aging in different parts of the world. Unlike other countries, Puerto Rico is also experiencing unprecedented levels of working-age out-migration. The full impact of high out-migration on Puerto Rican demography is not fully understood. Placing Puerto Rico’s aging process in an international context is useful in identifying the role out-migration is having on the accelerated aging of the Puerto Rican society. Using the World Population Prospects 2019 estimates, we compared the pattern of rapid aging found for Puerto Rico with the trajectories of six other countries with the highest population of 65+ in the World, Europe, and the Caribbean from 1960 to 2020. Prior to 2010, the aging process in Puerto Rico was comparable to the other countries. After 2010, the percent of the population over 65 years in Puerto Rico nearly doubled from 13.1% to 21%. The nearly doubling of the percent of older adults is not observed in any of the comparison countries. We find that the rapid aging of Puerto Rico, changing from a linear trend to an exponential one, is a result of accelerating levels of out-migration, which is concentrated in the working-age population.

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Data Availability

The 2019 World Population Prospects estimates are available through U.N. Population Division (https://population.un.org/wpp/).

Code Availability

Our code is available upon request by interested parties. Requests for our code should be sent to the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 12th Conference of Young Demographers, February 3–5, 2021. The authors are thankful to the conference attendees, anonymous reviewers, and the editor for their helpful comments and suggestions. The authors want to thank Dr. Mathew E. Hauer for sharing his data visualization code through GitHub and advice.

Funding

Amílcar Matos-Moreno is a Postdoctoral Researchers funded by a Diversity Supplement awarded through the National Institute of Aging (R01AG060949) and the Population Research Institute (PRI) at the Pennsylvania State University. As a doctoral student Matos-Moreno was funded by a Rackham Merit Fellowship Award of the University of Michigan, a training grant from the National Institute on Aging (NIA T32-AG027708), and a training grant from the Global Alliance for Training in Health Equity Research (GATHER). GATHER is supported by a training grant from the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (T37MD01425) at Drexel University. Alexis R. Santos-Lozada is funded by the Social Science Research Institute and PRI at the Pennsylvania State University. PRI is supported by a grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD041025). Neil Mehta is funded by the Texas Resources Center on Minority Aging Research (RCMAR, P30AG059301-01). Amelia A. L. Friche is funded by Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (313377/2017-0).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology and Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Amílcar Matos-Moreno & Carlos F. Mendes de Leon

  2. Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 601 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA, 16801, USA

    Amílcar Matos-Moreno & Alexis R. Santos-Lozada

  3. Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA

    Alexis R. Santos-Lozada

  4. Department of Preventive Medicine & Population Health, School of Medicine, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA

    Neil Mehta

  5. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA

    Félice Lê-Scherban

  6. Drexel Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA

    Félice Lê-Scherban

  7. Observatory for Urban Health in Belo Horizonte, School of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Amélia A. De Lima Friche

Authors
  1. Amílcar Matos-Moreno
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  2. Alexis R. Santos-Lozada
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  3. Neil Mehta
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  4. Carlos F. Mendes de Leon
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  5. Félice Lê-Scherban
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  6. Amélia A. De Lima Friche
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Contributions

AMM and ARSL had full access to all data and take full responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. AMM, ARSL, and NM conceptualized and designed the study, acquired, and analyzed the data. All authors contributed to the data interpretation and drafted the original manuscript and the revised version.

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Correspondence to Amílcar Matos-Moreno.

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The authors have no conflict to disclose.

Ethical Approval

Because these data are country-level aggregate counts, this study is not considered to be research involving human subjects as defined by U.S. regulation (45 CFR 46.102(d)).

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All authors have read and approved this manuscript for publication.

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Matos-Moreno, A., Santos-Lozada, A.R., Mehta, N. et al. Migration is the Driving Force of Rapid Aging in Puerto Rico: A Research Brief. Popul Res Policy Rev 41, 801–810 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-021-09683-2

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