Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Multidimensional Disadvantages of Centrist Parties in Western Europe

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Political Behavior Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that most parties in Western Europe do not take centrist policy positions, despite the centripetal force of the voter distribution. While most scholars focus on the reasons for parties’ divergence, this paper focuses on the reasons for the electoral failures of parties that take centrist Left–Right positions. This paper demonstrates that centrist parties, such as the British Liberal Democrats and the German FDP, suffer from multidimensional disadvantages. Using the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey and the European Election Studies surveys, I show that centrist parties are systematically disadvantaged regarding non-policy issues, such as competence, integrity, and party unity (i.e. valence issues). Second, I demonstrate that given their valence image there is no set of policy positions centrist parties can take to substantially improve their vote shares. While (Left–Right) centrist parties usually take positions that are far more supportive of European integration than the mass publics, moderating their positions is expected to increase centrist parties’ vote-share but not as much as it is expected to increase the vote-share of Christian Democratic parties. These results have important implications for the study of political representation, electoral campaigns, and parties’ policy shifts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data and associated files necessary for replicating the analyses contained in this article are posted at the Political Behavior Dataverse and can be accessed at: Zur, Roi, 2020, "Replication Data for: The multidimensional disadvantages of centrist parties", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OWOZSD, Harvard Dataverse, DRAFT VERSION, UNF:6:njM29fT2/Hlqu05nj5xNsA==[fileUNF].

Notes

  1. Because elections to the European Parliament do not end with government formation (unlike national elections), I assume that parties are vote-maximizers, i.e., they do not pursue alternative goals such as maximizing policy payoffs, participation in governing coalitions, or the duration of their survival.

  2. I show in the appendix, these voters’ considerations help to improve the general explanation about proximity voting in the EP elections, but they do not alter the substantive argument in this paper.

  3. The correlations between respondents’ self-placements on these dimensions are sufficiently low to treat them as three independent dimensions and are shown in the appendix.

  4. These countries are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Because the EES code Belgium’s Flanders and French parties separately, the analysis below includes only the French specking parties of Belgium, the substantive results below hold for both Flanders (shown in the appendix) and French parties.

  5. In robustness checks I have excluded the agrarian parties and included only liberal parties in the centrist party group. The substantive results hold.

  6. These proximity variables are based on the following questions in EES and the corresponding question in CHES:

    • General left–right (QPP12): In political matters people talk of “the left” and “the right”. What is your position? Please use a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means “left” and 10 means “right”. Which number best describes your position?

    • Immigration (QPP17.6): (a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you are ‘fully in favor of a restrictive policy on immigration’, and 10 means ‘you are fully opposed to a restrictive policy on immigration’. For convenient I have reordered the scale in the opposite direction.

    • European integration (QPP18): Some say European unification should be pushed further. Others say it already has gone too far. What is your opinion? Please indicate your views using a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means unification ‘has already gone too far’ and 10 means it ‘should be pushed further’. What number on this scale best describes your position?

    To maximize variation in the categorical scales I multiply voters’ self-placements by a randomly assigned uniform distribution ranging from − -0.5 to 0.5. For example, all voters who self-placed at 5 had equal probability to be treated as if they self-placed between 4.5 and 5.5 on the 0–10 scale.

  7. The conditional logit framework has another advantage over other models as it provides estimates of vote-choice probabilities that incorporate not only the spatial proximity of voters to the party, but the relative probability of voting for the focal party over any other party, conditioned on the proximity to any other party in the model (e.g. Adams et al. 2005; Schofield and Sened 2006).

  8. In robustness checks I have repeated these simulations using voters’ mean perceived position of the parties, and three-dimensional scaling of both parties’ and voters’ positions. The results of these simulations support the same substantive conclusions presented in this paper.

  9. In the appendix I estimate a variety of decision rules as robustness checks. These models include placing parties at respondents’ idiosyncratic placements, changing voters’ decision rule to a squared loss function (with and without the linear term), and adding a directional component to the model. In all the models, the substantive conclusions of this paper hold.

References

  • Abney, R., Adams, J., Clark, M., Easton, M., Ezrow, L., Kosmidis, S., & Neundorf, A. (2013). When does Valence Matter? Heightened valence effects for governing parties during election campaigns. Party Politics, 19(1), 61–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J. (2012). Causes and electoral consequences of party policy shifts in multiparty elections: Theoretical results and empirical evidence. Annual Review of Political Science, 15, 401–419.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., Ezrow, L., & Somer-Topcu, Z. (2011). Is anybody listening? Evidence that voters do not respond to European Parties’ policy programmes. American Journal of Political Science, 55(2), 370–382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., Green, J., & Milazzo, C. (2012a). Has the British public depolarized along with political elites? An American perspective on British public opinion. Comparative Political Studies, 45(4), 507–530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., & Merrill, S. I. I. I. (1999). Modeling party strategies and policy representation in multiparty elections: Why are strategies so extreme? American Journal of Political Science, 43(3), 765–791.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., & Merrill, S. (2000). Spatial models of candidate competition and the 1988 French presidential election: Are presidential candidates vote-maximizers? Journal of Politics, 62(3), 729–756.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., & Samuel Merrill, I. I. I. (2005). Candidates’ policy platforms and election outcomes: The three faces of policy representation. European Journal of Political Research, 44(6), 899–918.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., & Samuel Merrill, I. I. I. (2009). Policy-seeking parties in a parliamentary democracy with proportional representation: A valence-uncertainty model. British Journal of Political Science, 39(03), 539–558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., Merrill, S., & Grofman, B. (2005). A Unified Theory of Party Competition: A Cross-National Analysis Integrating Spatial and Behavioral Factors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., Merrill, S., & Zur, R. (2020). The Spatial-voting model. The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations. London: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., & Somer-Topcu, Z. (2009). Moderate now, win votes later: The electoral consequences of parties’ policy shifts in 25 postwar democracies. The Journal of Politics, 71(2), 678–692.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams, J., de Vries, C., & Leiter, D. (2012b). “Which voting constituencies reacted to elite depolarization in the Netherlands? An Analysis of the Dutch public’s policy beliefs and partisan loyalties, 1986–1998. British Journal of Political Science, 42(1), 81–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alvarez, R. M., & Nagler, J. (1998). Economics, entitlements and social issues: Voter choice in the 1996 presidential election. American Journal of Political Science, 42(4), 1349–1363.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakker, R., Jolly, S., & Polk, J. (2018). Multidimensional incongruence and vote switching in Europe. Public Choice, 176(1–2), 267–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakker, R., Jolly, S., & Polk, J. (2020). Multidimensional incongruence, political disaffection, and support for anti-establishment parties. Journal of European Public Policy, 27(2), 292–309. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2019.1701534.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bølstad, J., & Dinas, E. (2017). A categorization theory of spatial voting: How the center divides the political space. British Journal of Political Science, 47(4), 829–850.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Close, C., & Delwit, P. (2019). Liberal parties and elections. In E. Van Haute & C. Close (Eds.), Liberal Parties in Europe. London: Routledge.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, M. (2009). Valence and electoral outcomes in Western Europe, 1976–1998. Electoral Studies, 28(1), 111–122.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, M. (2013). Understanding parties’ policy shifts in Western Europe: The role of valence, 1976–2003. British Journal of Political Science, 44(2), 261–286.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, M. (2014). Does public opinion respond to shifts in party valence? A cross-national analysis of Western Europe, 1976–2002. West European Politics, 37(1), 91–112.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, M., & Leiter, D. (2014). Does the ideological dispersion of parties mediate the electoral impact of valence? A cross-national study of party support in nine Western European democracies. Comparative Political Studies, 47(2), 171–202.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dalton, R. J., & McAllister, I. (2015). Random walk or planned excursion? Continuity and change in the left–right positions of political parties. Comparative Political Studies, 48(6), 759–787.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ezrow, L. (2005). Are moderate parties rewarded in multiparty systems? A pooled analysis of Western European elections, 1984–1998. European Journal of Political Research, 44(6), 881–898.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fernandez-Vazquez, P. (2019). The credibility of party policy rhetoric survey experimental evidence. The Journal of Politics, 81(1), 309–314.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green, J., & Jennings, W. (2012). The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: An analysis of valence in Britain, 1979–1997. European Journal of Political Research, 51, 469–503.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green, J., & Jennings, W. (2017). The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Hix, S., & Marsh, M. (2007). Punishment or protest? Understanding European parliament elections. The Journal of Politics, 69(2), 495–510.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S. B., et al. (2009). A vote against Europe? Explaining defection at the 1999 and 2004 European parliament elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 93–115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S. B., & De Vries, C. (2016). Turning against the Union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies, 44, 504–514.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S. B., & Spoon, J.-J. (2012). Motivating the European voter: Parties, issues and campaigns in European Parliament elections. European Journal of Political Research, 51(6), 701–727.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S. B., & Tilley, J. (2016). Fleeing the centre: The rise of challenger parties in the aftermath of the euro crisis. West European Politics, 39(5), 971–991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong, G. (2015). Explaining vote switching to niche parties in the 2009 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 16(4), 514–535.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huckfeldt, K. I., & Pappi, F. U. (2005). Patterns of disagreement in democratic politics: Comparing Germany, Japan, and the United States. American Journal of Political Science, 49, 497–514.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johns, R., & Kölln, A. K. (2020). Moderation and Competence: How a Party's Ideological Position Shapes Its Valence Reputation. American Journal of Political Science, 64(3), 649–663.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kedar, O. (2005). When moderate voters prefer extreme parties: Policy balancing in parliamentary elections. American Political Science Review, 99(02), 185–199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klüver, H., & Spoon, J. J. (2020). Helping or hurting? How governing as a junior coalition partner influences electoral outcomes. The Journal of Politics, 82(4), 1231–1242.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macdonald, S. E., Rabinowitz, G., & Listhaug, O. (2007). Simulating models of issue voting. Political Analysis, 15(4), 406–427.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews, S. A. (1979). A simple direction model of electoral competition. Public Choice, 34(2), 141–156.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merrill, S., & Grofman, B. (1999). A Unified Theory of Voting: Directional and Proximity Spatial Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mondak, J. J. (1995). Competence, integrity, and the electoral success of congressional incumbents. The Journal of Politics, 57(04), 1043–1069.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polk, J., et al. (2017). Explaining the salience of anti-elitism and reducing political corruption for political parties in Europe with the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey data. Research & Politics, 4(1), 7. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168016686915.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rabinowitz, G., & Macdonald, S. E. (1989). A Directional theory of issue voting. American Political Science Review, 83(01), 93–121.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections: A conceptual framework for the analysis of European Election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1), 3–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmitt, H., Hobolt, S. B., Popa, S. A., & Teperoglou, E. (2015). European parliament election study 2014, voter study. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA5160 Data file Version 1.

  • Schofield, N., & Sened, I. (2006). Multiparty Democracy: Elections and Legislative. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Seeberg, H. B., Slothuus, R., & Stubager, R. (2017). Do voters learn? Evidence that voters respond accurately to changes in political parties’ policy positions. West European Politics, 40(2), 336–356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spoon, J.-J., & Klüver, H. (2017). Does anybody notice? How policy positions of coalition parties are perceived by voters. European Journal of Political Research, 56(1), 115–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes, D. E. (1963). Spatial models of party competition. The American Political Science Review, 57(2), 368–377.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spoon, J.-J. (2011). Political Survival of Small Parties in Europe. Michigan: University of Michigan Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes, D. (1992). Valence politics. In D. Kavanagh (Ed.), Electoral Politics (pp. 141–162). Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stone, W. J. (2017). Candidates and Voters: Ideology, Valence, and Representation in US Elections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Stone, W. J., Maisel, L. S., & Maestas, C. D. (2004). Quality counts: Extending the strategic politician model of incumbent deterrence. American Journal of Political Science, 48(3), 479–495.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stone, W. J., & Simas, E. N. (2010). Candidate valence and ideological positions in US House Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 54(2), 371–388.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tomz, M., & Van Houweling, R. P. (2012). “Candidate Repositioning.” Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University and University of California, Berkeley.

  • Zur, R. (2017). When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election. German Politics, 26(3), 380–397.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zur, R. (2019a). Stuck in the middle; ideology, valence, and the electoral failures of centrist parties. British Journal of Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000231.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zur, R. (2019b). Party survival in parliament: Explaining party durability in lower-house parliaments. European Journal of Political Research, 58, 960–980.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

An earlier version of this article was presented at the 2019 annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. I thank Carlos Algara, Christopher Hare, Ireen Litvak-Zur, Matthew Shugart, the editor, and the anonymous reviewers whose thoughtful comments significantly improved this manuscript. Any remaining errors are my sole responsibility.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Essex, Colchester, UK

    Roi Zur

Authors
  1. Roi Zur
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Roi Zur.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOC 680 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zur, R. The Multidimensional Disadvantages of Centrist Parties in Western Europe. Polit Behav 43, 1755–1777 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09671-w

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09671-w

Keywords

Search

Navigation