Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Preparing for the worst: identifying predictors of school decline as an improvement initiative

  • Published:
Educational Assessment, Evaluation and Accountability Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

School improvement research has insufficiently considered the importance of intervening in schools with declining academic performance. Fields such as engineering and medicine have prioritized predicting decline to save structures or patients before they are in peril. Unfortunately, in education, school improvement policies and interventions are only enacted once schools reach low levels of academic performance. In this study, we apply sophisticated statistical models to analyze more than 10 years of longitudinal student achievement data in English/language arts and mathematics in the US state of Texas. We find that a considerable number of schools consistently decline over time. Some significant predictors of decline included shifting student demographics and changes in the percent of economically disadvantaged students. Higher starting percentages of students labeled as English language learners also increased the likelihood of decline, but increasing percentages of English language learners over timereduced the rate of decline. Leadership stability also appears to be important to impeding decline. We close by discussing implications for research, policy, and practice.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The Texas Education Agency readily responds to public information requests at https://tea.texas.gov/About_TEA/Contact_Us/Public_Information_Requests.

References

  • Beesley, A. D., & Clark, T. F. (2015). How rural and nonrural principals differ in high plains U.S. states. Peabody Journal of Education, 90(2), 242–249. https://doi.org/10.1080/0161956X.2015.1022114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellei, C., Vanni, X., Valenzuela, J. P., & Contreras, D. (2016). School improvement trajectories: an empirical typology. School Effectiveness and Improvement, 27(3), 275–292. https://doi.org/10.1080/09243453.2015.1083038.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brookover, W. B., & Lezotte, L. W. (1979). Changes in school characteristics coincident with changes in student achievement. Institute for Research on Teaching: Michigan State University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brookover, W. B., and Schneider, J. (1975). Academic environment and elementary school achievement. Journal of Research and Development in Education, 9.

  • Burgess, S., Wilson, D., & Worth, J. (2013). A natural experiment in school accountability: the impact of school performance information on pupil progress. Journal of Public Economics, 106, 57–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.06.005.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Center on School Turnaround. (2017). Four domains for rapid school improvement: a systems framework. San Francisco, CA: Center on School Turnaround at WestEd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chapman, C., & Muijs, D. (2013). Collaborative school turnaround: a study of the impact of school federations on student outcomes. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 12(3), 200–226. https://doi.org/10.1080/15700763.2013.831456.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapman, C., Reynolds, D., Teddlie, C., & Stringfield, S. (2016). Effective school processes. In C. Chapman, D. Muijs, D. Reynolds, P. Sammons, & C. Teddlie (Eds.), Routledge International Handbook of Educational Effectiveness: research, policy, and practice (pp. 77–99). New York, NY: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Copeland, G., & Neeley, A. (2013). Identifying competencies and actions of effective turnaround principals (briefing paper). Metairie, LA: Southeast Comprehensive Center at SEDL.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cortez, A., and Villarreal, A. (2009). Education of English language learners in U.S. and Texas schools: Where we are, what we have learned and where we go from here. San Antonio, TX: Intercultural Development Research Association.

  • Duke, D. L. (1995). The school that refused to die. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duke, D. L. (2008a). Diagnosing school decline. Phi Delta Kappan, 89(9), 667–671. https://doi.org/10.1177/003172170808900912.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duke, D. L. (2008b). Understanding school decline. International Studies in Educational Administration, 36(2), 46–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duke, D. L. (2015). Leadership for low-performing schools: a step-by-step guide to the school turnaround process. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duke, D. L., & Hochbein, C. (2008). Rising to the challenges of studying school decline. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 7, 358–379. https://doi.org/10.1080/15700760802155515.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duke, D. L., & Salmonowicz, M. (2010). Key decisions of a first-year ‘turnaround’ principal. Educational Management Administration and Leadership, 38(1), 33–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/1741143209345450.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easton-Brooks, D. (2014). Ethnic-matching in urban schools. In R. Milner & K. Lomotey (Eds.), Handbook of urban education (pp. 97–113). New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edmonds, R. (1979). Effective schools for the urban poor. Educational Leadership, 37(1), 15–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edmonds, R., & Fredericksen, N. (1978). Search for effective schools: the identification and analysis of city schools that are instructionally effective for poor children. Cambridge, MA: Center for Urban Studies, Harvard University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015, P.L. 114–95, 114, Stat. 1177 (2015).

  • Gawande, A. (2009). The checklist manifesto: how to get things right. New York: Picador.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gould, S. J., & Eldredge, N. (1993). Punctuated equilibrium comes of age. Nature, 366(6452), 223–227. https://doi.org/10.1038/366223a0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grant, G. (1988). The world we created at Hamilton high. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hallinger, P. (1992). The evolving role of American principals: from managerial to instructional to transformational leaders. Journal of Educational Administration, 30(3), 35–48. https://doi.org/10.1108/09578239210014306.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallinger, P., and Heck, R. (1998). Exploring the principals’ role in school effectiveness, 1980–1995. School Effectiveness and School Improvement, 9, 157–191. https://doi.org/10.1080/0924345980090203, Exploring the Principal's Contribution to School Effectiveness: 1980‐1995∗.

  • Hanushek, E. A., & Raymond, M. E. (2005). Does school accountability lead to improved student performance? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 24(2), 297–327. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.20091.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heck, R. H., Thomas, S. L., & Tabata, L. N. (2014). Multilevel and longitudinal modeling with IBM SPSS. New York, NY: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ho, A. D. (2008). The problem with proficiency: Limitations of statistics and policy under No Child Left Behind. Educational Researcher, 37, 351–360. 10.3102=0013189_08323842.

  • Hochbein, C. (2011). Overlooking the descent: operational definition, identification, and description of school decline. Journal of Educational Change, 12(3), 281–300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hochbein, C. (2012a). Downward spirals, boiled frogs, and catastrophes: examining the rate of school decline. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 11(1), 66–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/15700763.2011.577927.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hochbein, C. (2012b). Relegation and reversion: longitudinal analysis of school turnaround and decline. Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk (JESPAR), 17(1–2), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.1080/10824669.2012.636728.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hochbein, C., & Duke, D. (2011). Crossing the line: examination of student demographic changes concomitant with declining academic performance in elementary schools. School Effectiveness and School Improvement, 22(1), 87–118. https://doi.org/10.1080/09243453.2010.550462.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hox, J. (2010). Multilevel analysis: techniques and applications (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Routledge Academic.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Huber, S. G., & Gördel, B. (2006). Quality assurance in the German school system. European Educational Research Journal, 5(3–4), 196–209. https://doi.org/10.2304/eerj.2006.5.3.196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • La Porte, T. R. (1996). High reliability organizations: unlikely, demanding and at risk. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 4(2), 60–71. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5973.1996.tb00078.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Floch, K. C., Birman, B., O’Day, J., Hurlburt, S., Mercado-Garcia, D., Goff, R… .Wei, T. E. (2014). Case studies of schools receiving school improvement grants: findings after the first year of implementation (NCEE 2014–4015). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education.

  • Leithwood, K. (2012). Ontario leadership framework with a discussion of the leadership foundations. Ontario: The Institute for Education Leadership, OISE.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leithwood, K., Harris, A., & Strauss, T. (2010). Leading school turnaround: how successful leaders transform low-performing schools. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, P. (2017). Transforming turnaround schools in China: a review. School Effectiveness and Improvement, 28(1), 74–101. https://doi.org/10.1080/09243453.2016.1239641.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacLeod, J. (1987). Ain’t no making it: aspirations and attainment in a low-income neighborhood. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, Inc..

    Google Scholar 

  • Maranto, R., & Shuls, J. V. (2012). How do we get them on the farm? Efforts to improve rural teacher recruitment and retention in Arkansas. Rural Educator, 34(1).

  • Marks, H. M., & Printy, S. M. (2003). Principal leadership and school performance: an integration of transformational and instructional leadership. Educational Administration Quarterly, 39, 370–397. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013161X03253412.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mette, I. (2014). Turnaround reform efforts in a rural context: how community and culture impact change. The Rural Educator, 35(3). https://doi.org/10.35608/ruraled.v35i3.345.

  • Meyer, M. W., & Zucker, L. G. (1989). Permanently failing organizations. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meyers, C. V., & Hitt, D. H. (2017). School turnaround principals: what does initial research literature suggest they are doing to be successful? Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk (JESPAR), 22(1), 38–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyers, C. V., & Smylie, M. A. (2016). Five myths of school turnaround policy and practice. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 16(3), 502–523.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyers, C. V., & VanGronigen, B. A. (2020). Planning for what? An analysis of root cause quality and content in school improvement plans. Journal of Educational Administration, in press.

  • Miller, A. (2013). Principal turnover and student achievement. Economics of Education Review, 36, 60–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONEDUREV.2013.05.004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, J. (2008). Turnaround insights from the organizational sciences: a review of the empirical evidence and the development of a staged model of recovery with potential implications for the PK-12 education sector. Leadership and Policy in Schools, 7(4), 331–357. https://doi.org/10.1080/15700760802071266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, J. (2009). Turning around failing schools: policy insights from the corporate, government, and nonprofit sector. Educational Policy, 23(6), 796–830. https://doi.org/10.1177/0895904808320677.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, J. F., & Bleiberg, J. F. (2019). School turnaround policies and practices in the US: learning from failed school reform. New York, NY: Springer International Publishing.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, J., & Meyers, C. V. (2008). Turning around failing schools: leadership lessons from the organizational sciences. Thousand Oaks: Corwin Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Center for Education Statistics [NCES]. (2016). Common core of data public elementary/secondary school universe survey data for 2015–2016. Washington, DC: Author Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/ccd/pubschuniv.asp.

    Google Scholar 

  • No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, P.L. 107–110, 20 U.S.C. § 6319 (2002).

  • Peck, C., & Reitzug, U. C. (2014). School turnaround fever: the paradoxes of a historical practice promoted as a new reform. Urban Education, 49, 8–38. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042085912472511.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petroski, H. (2006). Success through failure: the paradox of design. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Petroski, H. (2012). To forgive design: understanding failure. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Purkey, S. C., & Smith, M. S. (1983). Effective schools: a review. The Elementary School Journal, 83(4), 426–452.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: applications and data analysis methods (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reardon, S. F. (2011). The widening academic achievement gap between the rich and the poor: new evidence and possible explanations (pp. 91-116). In G. J. Duncan and R. J. Murnane’s (Eds.) Whither opportunity? Rising inequality, schools, and children’s life chances. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

  • Robinson, V., Hohepa, M., & Lloyd, C. (2009). School leadership and student outcomes: identifying what works and why: best evidence synthesis iteration. Auckland: University of Auckland and the New Zealand Ministry of Education.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sammons, P., Hillman, J., & Mortimore, P. (1995). Key characteristics of effective schools: a review of school effectiveness research. London: International School Effectiveness and Improvement Centre.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sarason, S. B. (1990). The predictable failure of educational reform: can we change course before it’s too late? San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott, C., and Ostler, N. (2016). Reshaping rural schools in the northwest region: lessons from federal school improvement Grant implementation (REL 2016–107). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Regional Educational Laboratory Northwest. Retrieved from http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs.

  • Stringfield, S. (1998). An anatomy of ineffectiveness. In L. Stoll & K. Myers (Eds.), No quick fixes: perspectives on schools in difficulties (pp. 209–221). London: Falmer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stringfield, S., & Teddlie, C. (1988). A time to summarize: the Louisiana School Effectiveness Study. Educational Leadership, 46(2), 43–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Texas Education Agency [TEA]. (2018a). School performance. Austin, TX: Author. Retrieved from https://tea.texas.gov/Reports_and_Data/School_Performance/

  • Texas Education Agency [TEA]. (2018b). Academic excellence indicator system. Austin, TX: Author. Retrieved from https://rptsvr1.tea.texas.gov/perfreport/aeis/index.html

  • Texas Education Agency [TEA]. (2018c). Texas academic performance reports. Austin, TX: Author. Retrieved from https://tea.texas.gov/perfreport/tapr/index.html

  • Teddlie, C., & Stringfield, S. (1993). Schools make a difference. Lessons learned from a 10-year study of school effects. New York: Teachers College Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vasquez Heilig, J., Khalifa, M., & Tillman, L. (2014). High-stakes reforms and urban education. In R. Milner & K. Lomotey (Eds.), Handbook of urban education (pp. 474–503). New York, NY: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Virginia Partnership for Leaders in Education (PLE), University of Virginia, School of Education and Human Development, 160 Ridley Hall, 417 Emmet Street South, PO Box 400260, Charlottesville, VA, 22904-4260, USA

    Coby V. Meyers

  2. University of Dayton, Dayton, USA

    Meredith L. Wronowski

  3. University of Delaware, Delaware, USA

    Bryan A. VanGronigen

Authors
  1. Coby V. Meyers
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Meredith L. Wronowski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Bryan A. VanGronigen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Coby V. Meyers.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Meyers, C.V., Wronowski, M.L. & VanGronigen, B.A. Preparing for the worst: identifying predictors of school decline as an improvement initiative. Educ Asse Eval Acc 33, 255–290 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11092-020-09349-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11092-020-09349-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation