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Applying grey model to predict the useful lifetime for high-power white LEDs

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Abstract

An accelerated degradation test has been widely used to analyze the useful lifetime of high-power white light-emitting diodes (HPWLEDs). A two-stage method is proposed to predict the useful lifetime of HPWLEDs. In the first stage, an exponential model first fits the degradation data. In the second stage, a response model based on an inverse power (exponential) law under different stresses is derived for predicting the useful lifetime under normal operating conditions. To improve the fitting accuracy for the degradation data, we consider the grey model. The useful lifetimes based on the exponential and grey models using the two-stage method are obtained as 192,317 and 184,538 h, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank reviewer’s comments for improving the presentation. The authors also are grateful for financial support from the Ministry of Science and Technology in Taiwan under the Grant NSC-101-2221-E011-050-MY3.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei City, Taiwan, ROC

    Fu-Kwun Wang & Yi-Chen Lu

  2. Dell Incorporated, Taipei City, Taiwan, ROC

    Tao-Peng Chu

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  1. Fu-Kwun Wang
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  2. Yi-Chen Lu
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  3. Tao-Peng Chu
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Correspondence to Fu-Kwun Wang.

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Wang, FK., Lu, YC. & Chu, TP. Applying grey model to predict the useful lifetime for high-power white LEDs. Opt Quant Electron 48, 67 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11082-015-0265-4

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