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Dynamic modeling and simulation of double-rumor spreaders in online social networks with IS2TR model

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Abstract

Rumors can spread quickly and widely, causing negative impacts on both society and individuals. Therefore, it is essential to prevent the propagation of rumors to maintain social stability and avoid potential harm to people’s lives. In order to accurately simulate the rumor spreading process, a new IS2TR rumor spreading model is proposed. The different psychology of people when rumor spreading is taken into account in this model, and rumor spreaders are classified as normal spreaders and malicious spreaders. In addition, this model adds truth spreaders, making it more consistent with the real rumor spreading process. First, we calculate the model’s equilibria and the basic reproduction number. Second, the local asymptotic stability and transcritical bifurcation of the equilibria are analyzed and proved in this model. Finally, the theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations, and we also analyze the comprehensive impact of adding malicious spreaders and truth spreaders to the model. A real dataset is then used to predict the rumor propagation process, and the final R-squared is 0.9487 which verifies the effectiveness in predicting rumor propagation trends.

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Data availability

The dataset used in this paper is publicly available at https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2563864.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 62273272, 62303375 and 61873277, in part by the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province under Grant 2023-YBGY-243, in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province under Grant 2020JQ-758, in part by the Youth Innovation Team of Shaanxi Universities, and in part by the Researchers Supporting Project number (RSPD2024R1007), King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Systems Security and Control, College of Computer Science and Technology, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an, 710054, China

    Zhenhua Yu, Haiyan Zi, Yun Zhang, Shixing Wu & Xuya Cong

  2. Department of Information Systems, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, P.O. BOX 51178, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

    Almetwally M. Mostafa

Authors
  1. Zhenhua Yu
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  2. Haiyan Zi
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  3. Yun Zhang
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  4. Shixing Wu
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  5. Xuya Cong
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  6. Almetwally M. Mostafa
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Contributions

Zhenhua Yu: Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing – original draft. Haiyan Zi: Writing – original draft, Software, Validation. Yun Zhang: Writing – review & editing, Methodology. Shixing Wu: Formal analysis, Reviewing and editing. Xuya Cong: Writing – review & editing, Methodology. Almetwally M. Mostafa: Software, Validation.

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Correspondence to Yun Zhang or Xuya Cong.

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Yu, Z., Zi, H., Zhang, Y. et al. Dynamic modeling and simulation of double-rumor spreaders in online social networks with IS2TR model. Nonlinear Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-024-09538-3

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