Abstract
The frequency and severity of extreme climatic phenomena, including droughts, have increased across the globe. The aim of this study is to detect changes in the severity and trends of short- and medium- term droughts (3 and 12 months) across Iran (1990–2019) and project the near (2059–2030) and far (2095–2066) future changes. SPI and SPEI indices were used for this purpose. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used for trend analysis, and the G * (Geties and Ord) index was exerted for hot spot analysis. The results revealed that in 1990–2020, except for 3 month SPI (SPI3) index, the SPI and SPEI trends tended to be negative and statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level. During the same period, specified and significant hot spots of the indices were formed in the northern and northwestern Iran, and significant cold spots were concentrated only in Zabol and Birjand stations in eastern Iran. Near and far future minimum and maximum monthly precipitation projections for four selected stations show increases in monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and decreases in precipitation at all stations, though the decrease in precipitation for Esfahan station only with RCP8.5. The Projected trends of 3 and 12 months SPI and SPEI (SPI3, SPI12, SPEI3 and SPEI12) in near and far future show the dominance of significant negative trends. Projected trends of SPI and SPEI for the near future was negative for all stations, though it was positive and significant for far future.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data and materials are clarified in the material and methods section of the manuscript. Data will be made available on reasonable request.
Code availability
All custom codes are available.
References
Alvankar SR, Fattahi E (2016) The intensity and return periods of drought under future climate change scenarios in Iran. J Spatial Anal Environ Hazarts 3(2):99–120. https://doi.org/10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.3.2.99
Andy, M. 2005. The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis, Volume 2. ESRI Press.
Bakke SJ, Ionita M, Tallaksen LM (2023) Recent European drying and its link to prevailing large-scale atmospheric patterns. Sci Rep 13:21921. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48861-4
Bazrafshan J (2017) Effect of air temperature on historical trend of long-term droughts in different climates of Iran. Water Resour Manag 31:4683–4698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1773-8
Bint-e-Mehmood D, Awan JA, Farah H (2024) Modelling temperature and precipitation variabilities over semi-arid region of Pakistan under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Model Earth Syst Environ 10:143–155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01776-5
Costa AA, Guimarães SO, Sales DC, das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior F, Marinho MW, Pereira JM, Martins ES, da Silva EM. (2023) Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4 5 and RCP8 5 climate change scenarios: results from dynamical downscaling simulations. Int J Climatol 43(2):787–803. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7828
Danandeh Mehr A, Sorman AU, Kahya E, Hesami AM (2020) Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey. Hydrol Sci J 65(2):254–268. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218
Das S, Das J, Umamahesh NV (2021) Identification of future meteorological drought hotspots over Indian region: a study based on NEX-GDDP data. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7145
Das S, Islam ARMT, Kamruzzaman M (2023) Assessment of climate change impact on temperature extremes in a tropical region with the climate projections from CMIP6 model. Clim Dyn 60:603–622. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06416-9
De Martonne E (1926) Aerisme, et índices d’aridite. Comptesrendus L’academie Des Sci 182:1395–1398
Derakhshandeh A, Khoorani A, Rezazadeh M (2024) Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation over Iran using CORDEX regional climate models until 2100. J Earth Syst Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02212-z
Eskandari Damaneh H, Jafari M, Eskandari Damaneh H, Behnia M, Khoorani A, Tiefenbacher JP (2021) Testing possible scenario-based responses of vegetation under expected climatic changes in Khuzestan province. Air, Soil Water Res. https://doi.org/10.1177/11786221211013332
Ferreira, G.W.dS., Reboita, M.S., Ribeiro, J.G.M., de Souza, C.A. (2023) Assessment of precipitation and hydrological droughts in South America through statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections. Climate 11(8):166. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11080166
Getis, A.; Ord, J.K. 2010. The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. In Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis; Springer: Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 127–145.
Ghabelnezam E, Mostafazadeh R, Hazbavi Z, Huang G (2023) Hydrological Drought Severity in Different Return Periods in Rivers of Ardabil Province, Iran. Sustainability 15:1993. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15031993
Ghazi B, Dutt S, Torabi Haghighi A (2023) Projection of future meteorological droughts in lake Urmia Basin. Iran Water 15(8):1558. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15081558
Heidari, N., Bazrafshan, J., Araghinejad, Sh. 2014 .Regional Comparison and Analysis of Drought Intensity-Duration Relationships under Current Climate Conditions and Future Climate Change Scenarios in Iran. 5th National Conference on Water Resource management.
Hoseinizade A, Seyed Kaboli H, Zarei H, Akhond Ali AM (2016) The intensity and return period of drought under future climate change scenarios in dezful Iran. Iran J Ecohydrol 39(1):33–43. https://doi.org/10.22059/IJE.2018.256186.866
Huning LS, AghaKouchak A (2020) Global snow drought hot spots and characteristics. Proc Nat Acad Sci 117(33):19753–19759. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1915921117
Islam SSM, Islam AKM, Mullick AR (2022) Drought hot spot analysis using local indicators of spatial autocorrelation: an experience from Bangladesh. Environ Challenges 6:100410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100410
Jafarpour M, Adib A, Lotfirad M et al (2023) Spatial evaluation of climate change-induced drought characteristics in different climates based on De Martonne Aridity Index in Iran. Appl Water Sci 13:133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-023-01939-w
Jincy RM, A. & N. R. Chithra, (2020) Evaluation of temporal drought variation and projection in a tropical river basin of Kerala. J Water Climate Change 11(S1):115–132. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.240
Jones PG, Thornton PK (2013) Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agricul Syst 114:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.08.002
Jones PG, Thornton PK, Diaz W, Wilkens PW (2002) MarkSim: A Computer Tool that Generates Simulated Weather Data for Crop Modeling and Risk Assessment. CD-ROM Series, with manual. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
Jones PG, Thornton PK (2000) MarkSim: software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa. Agron J 93:445–453. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2000.923445x
Kamruzzaman M, Jang MW, Cho J, Hwang S (2019) Future changes in precipitation and drought characteristics over bangladesh under CMIP5 climatological projections. Water 11(11):2219. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112219
Kavakebi G, Mousavi Baygi M, Alizadeh A, Mosaedi A, Jabbari NM (2020) Meteorological drought risk assessment using markov chain technique and introducing a forecasting model of future periods impacted by climate change (case study: afrin catchment). Iran J Irrigat Drainage 14(4):1107–1120
Kendall, M.G., 1957. Rank correlation methods. Biometrika. Vol. 44, No. 1/2, Jun., 1957. https://doi.org/10.2307/2333282.
Kheyruri Y, Nikaein E, Sharafati A (2023) Spatial monitoring of meteorological drought characteristics based on the NASA POWER precipitation product over various regions of Iran. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:43619–43640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25283-3
khoorani, A., Jamali, Z. (2016) Effects of climate change on drought duration and severity in arid and semi-arid stations (Bandarabbassand Shahrekord), based on HADCM3 model. Geogr Plann 20(57):115–131
Koohi S, Ramezani Etedali H (2023) Future meteorological drought conditions in southwestern Iran based on the NEX-GDDP climate dataset. J Arid Land 15:377–392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-023-0097-1
Lee JH, Kwon HH, Jang HW, Kim TW (2016) Future changes in drought characteristics under extreme climate change over South Korea. Adv Meteorol. 2016:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/9164265
Mahdavi P, Ghorbanizadeh KH (2023) Impact of climate change on droughts: a case study of the Zard River Basin in Iran. Water Practice Technol 18(10):2258–2276. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2023.159
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Massoudi M, Goodarzi M, Moeini A, Motamedvaziri B (2023) Spatial analysis of drought severity, duration and frequency using different drought indices (Case study: Fars Province, Iran). Caspian J Environ Sci 21:259–276
McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, Calif. 17–22 January 1993. American Meterological Society.
Meseguer-Ruiz O, Serrano-Notivoli R, Aránguiz-Acuña A, Fuentealba M, Nuñez-Hidalgo I, Sarricolea P, Garreaud R (2024) Comparing SPI and SPEI to detect different precipitation and temperature regimes in Chile throughout the last four decades. Atmos Res 297:107085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107085
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Mitchell A (2005) The ESR1 guide to GIS analysis. Volume 2: Spatial measurements and statistics. ESRI Press, Redlands, CA
Modarres R, Sarhadi A, Burn DH (2016) Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran. Global Planetary Change 144:67–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.008
Naka Y, Nakakita E (2023) Comprehensive future projections for the line-shaped convective system associated with Baiu front in Japan under RCP scenarios using regional climate model and pseudo global warming experiments. Front Earth Sci 11:1093543. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1093543
Ord JK, Getis A (1995) Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: distributional issues and an application. Geogr Anal 27:286–306. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00912.x
Parandin F, Khoorani A, Bazrafshan O (2019) The impacts of climate change on maximum daily discharge in the payab jamash watershed. Iran Open Geosci 11:1035–1045. https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2019-0080
Rezaei A (2023) Teleconnections between ocean–atmosphere circulations and historical integrated drought in the Middle East and North Africa. Environ Monit Assess 195:775. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11386-4
Richardson CW (1981) Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Water Resour Res 17(1):182–190. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR017i001p00182
Soares PMM, Careto JAM, Russo A et al (2023) The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach. Nat Hazards 117:2001–2028. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05938-7
Sobhani B, Safarian Zengir V, Kianian MK (2019) Modeling, monitoring and prediction of drought in Iran. Iranica J Energy Environ 10(3):216–224. https://doi.org/10.5829/ijee.2019.10.03.09
Spinoni J, Barbosa P, Bucchignani E, Cassano J, Cavazos T, Christensen JH et al (2020) Future global meteorological drought hot spots: a study based on CORDEX data. J Clim 33(9):3635–3661. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
Su B, Huang J, Mondal SK, Zhai J, Wang Y, Wen S, Gao M, Lv Y, Jiang S, Jiang T, Li A (2021) Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China. Atmos Res 250:105375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105375
Tall M, Sylla MB, Dajuma A, Almazroui M, Houteta DK, Klutse NAB, Dosio A, Lennard C, Driouech F, Diedhiou A, Giorgi F (2023) Drought variability, changes and hot spots across the African continent during the historical period (1928–2017). Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8293
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38(1):55–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/210739
van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Vido J, Nalevanková P (2020) Drought in the Upper Hron Region (Slovakia) between the Years 1984–2014. Water 12:2887. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102887
Wei J, Wang WG, Huang Y, Ding YM, Fu JY, Chen ZF, Xing WQ (2021) Drought variability and its connection with large-scale atmospheric circulations in Haihe River Basin. Water Sci Eng 14(1):1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2020.12.007
Xu F, Qu Y, Bento VA, Song H, Qiu J, Qi J, Wan L, Zhang R, Miao L, Zhang X, Wang Q (2024) Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China over the 21st century: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6. Npj Clim Atmosph Sci 7(1):32. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00578-5
Zargar A, Sadiq R, Naser B, Khan FI (2011) A review of drought indices. Environ Rev. https://doi.org/10.1139/A11-013
Funding
We have no funding for this research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Three authors contributed to this paper (AK, SB, FM). It is mentioned in the contribution section of the manuscript. SB and FM calculated and interpreted drought indices and AK analyzed the data and was a major contributor in writing the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
We confirm that this work is original and has not been published elsewhere, nor is it currently considered for publication elsewhere.
Ethical approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
All authors agree to participate, submit and publish the paper.
Consent for publication
All authors agree to submit and publish the paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Khoorani, A., Balaghi, S. & Mohammadi, F. Projecting drought trends and hot spots across Iran. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06574-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06574-5