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Heavy rains and hydrogeological disasters on February 18th–19th, 2023, in the city of São Sebastião, São Paulo, Brazil: from meteorological causes to early warnings

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Abstract

This study provides a thorough analysis of the landslides that occurred in the city of São Sebastião, on the northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil, in February 18th–19th, 2023. The meteorological condition during this event was characterized by a cold front crossing over a warmer-than-normal subtropical South Atlantic, off the coast of São Paulo. Combined with the orographic effect of the Serra do Mar Mountain, the front remained stationary over the northern coastal areas of the state of São Paulo, causing an extreme and historic heavy precipitation event. An unprecedented volume of rain, amounting to 683 mm in less than 15 h, triggered landslides that generated 65 casualties and damages. Although alerts were clearly issued in advance, response among the communities was minimal, indicating the ineffectiveness of current early warning system in place. This calls for improved public policies, communication and the possible adoption of multi-hazard early warning systems to reduce risk in vulnerable areas.

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Fig. 1
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Source: GFS-NCEP

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Source: Colorado State University—https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

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Source: CEMADEN environmental network

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Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch, Source: Global Forecast System Model analysis

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© 2023 Planet Labs Inc. All rights reserved. Elevation data is extracted from MDT ©JAXA Alos PALSAR with a resolution of 12.5 m

Fig. 11

© 2023 Planet Labs Inc. All rights reserved. Elevation data is extracted from MDT ©JAXA Alos PALSAR with a resolution of 12.5 m. Further details about the density calculation method in the text

Fig. 12

© 2023 Planet Labs Inc.). Susceptibility map source: CPRM/IPT (201)

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Source: CEMADEN

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Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data used in this study is freely available under request from the national meteorological service of Brazil and from CEMADEN.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Brazil’s National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq Grant 465501/2014-1; FAPESP Grants 2014/50848-9, and the National Coordination for Higher Education and Training (CAPES) Grant 88887.136402/2017-00. The study did not include human or animal subjects. and all authors approved the study and manifested their consent in participating in the elaboration and production of this article

Funding

The Funding was provided by FAPESP, 2014/50848-9, jose marengo, CNPq, 465501/2014-1, jose marengo

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters/CEMADEN, São José Dos Campos, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo, Ana P. Cunha, Marcelo E. Seluchi, Pedro I. Camarinha, Giovanni Dolif, Vinicius B. Sperling, Marcio M. Andrade, Rodrigo A. Stabile, Regina C. Alvala, Osvaldo L. Moraes & Demerval Goncalves

  2. UNESP/CEMADEN, Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, São José Dos Campos, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo, Ana P. Cunha, Enner H. Alcântara, Marcio M. Andrade, José Mantovani, Regina C. Alvala, Osvaldo L. Moraes & Carlos A. Nobre

  3. Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea

    Jose A. Marengo

  4. National Institute of Meteorology/INMET, Brasilia, Brazil

    Andrea M. Ramos

  5. National Institute of Education, Earth Observatory of Singapore and Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, Singapore

    Edward Park

  6. Institute for Advanced Studies (IEA), University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

    Carlos A. Nobre

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  1. Jose A. Marengo
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Contributions

JAM, AC, EA, CA, RA, OM: conceptualization; funding acquisition; investigation; methodology; supervision; writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. MS, GD, VS: conceptualization; formal meteorological analysis; investigation; methodology; visualization; writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. conceptualization; formal analysis; investigation; methodology; software; visualization. MA, RS, JM, EP: geological analysis. AR: data curation; formal analysis; methodology; software; validation; visualization. The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. DG: did produce an analysis and figures of rainfall data from the CEMADEN Network.

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Marengo, J.A., Cunha, A.P., Seluchi, M.E. et al. Heavy rains and hydrogeological disasters on February 18th–19th, 2023, in the city of São Sebastião, São Paulo, Brazil: from meteorological causes to early warnings. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06558-5

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