Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought in the Shaying River Basin, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Under the background of global warming and human activities, drought occurs frequently in the Shaying River Basin (SYRB). It is particularly important for agriculture and water resources management to comprehensively evaluate the evolution of hydrological drought in the river basin. In this study, we used the nonparametric standardized runoff index (NSRI) to investigate the temporal characteristics of hydrological drought in the SYRB from 1956 to 2013. The duration and severity of hydrological drought events were identified based on run theory, and the copula functions with the highest goodness of fit were used to investigate the drought return period. In addition, the double cumulative curve method was used to analyze the main causes of hydrological drought in the SYRB. The results indicated that: (1) From 1957 to 2013, the drought showed an increasing trend in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the SYRB, with frequent alternations of droughts, and the trend characteristic of drought was different in each subzone; (2) the frequency of drought decreased from upstream to downstream, but the duration and severity of drought increased; (3) Frank-copula was considered to be the best fitting two-dimensional copula function in the SYRB and the most severe drought lasted for 25 months, with drought severity of 11.485, and drought return period of 42.14 years; (4) human activities were the main reason for the decrease of runoff in the SYRB and the dominant factor for the intensification of hydrological drought in the basin.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data generated or analyzed during this study are available from the corresponding author.

References

  • Ayantobo OO, Li Y, Song S, Javed T, Yao N (2018) Probabilistic modelling of drought events in China via 2-dimensional joint copula. J Hydrol 559:373–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global dataset of palmer drought severity index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5(6):1117–1130

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Dai YQ, Shi P, Hu JW, Qu SM, Xiao ZW, Chen YB, Chen XY, Wang JJ (2018) Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff: a case of Shaying River. J China Three Gorges Univ (nat Sci) 40(01):15–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Dash SS, Sahoo B, Raghuwanshi NS (2019) A SWAT-Copula based approach for monitoring and assessment of drought propagation in an irrigation command. Ecol Eng 127:417–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farahmand A, AghaKouchak A (2015) A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators. Adv Water Resour 76:140–145

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Fenech JP, Vosgha H, Shafik S (2015) Loan default correlation using an Archimedean copula approach: a case for recalibration. Econ Model 47:340–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao Y, Zhu X, Yu G, He N, Wang Q, Tian J (2014) Water use efficiency threshold for terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration in China under afforestation. Agric for Meteorol 195:32–37

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Gringorten II (1963) A plotting rule for extreme probability paper. J Geophys Res 68(3):813–814

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Huang S, Huang Q, Chang J, Zhu Y, Leng G, Xing L (2015) Drought structure based on a nonparametric multivariate standardized drought index across the Yellow River basin, China. J Hydrol 530:127–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang S, Huang Q, Chang J, Leng G (2016) Linkages between hydrological drought, climate indices and human activities: a case study in the Columbia River basin. Int J Climatol 36(1):280–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang S, Li P, Huang Q, Leng G, Hou B, Ma L (2017) The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors. J Hydrol 547:184–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang R (2016) Research on evolution and countermeasures of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Huaihe River basin. Dissertation, China Inst Water Resour Hydropower Res

  • Lee T, Modarres R, Ouarda TB (2013) Data-based analysis of bivariate copula tail dependence for drought duration and severity. Hydrol Process 27(10):1454–1463

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Liu C, Brutsaert W (2016a) Regional evaporation estimates in the eastern monsoon region of C hina: assessment of a nonlinear formulation of the complementary principle. Water Resour Res 52(12):9511–9521

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Wang Y, Shao M, Jia X, Li X (2016b) Spatiotemporal analysis of multiscalar drought characteristics across the Loess Plateau of China. J Hydrol 534:281–299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Yang T, Hsu K, Liu C, Sorooshian S (2017) Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(1):169–181

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Liu C, Luo Y, Zhang M, Xia J (2012) Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project: climatic variation or human influence? J Geophys Res Atmosph 117(D6)

  • Ma JQ, He PF, Peng GH, Cui BF, Liu L (2017) Analyzing the drought frequency in shaying river basin using the three-dimensional copula function. J Irrigation Drain 36(09):102–107

    Google Scholar 

  • Ma J, Cui B, Hao X, He P, Liu L, Song Z (2022) Analysis of hydrologic drought frequency using multivariate copulas in Shaying River basin. Water 14(8):1306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maity R, Ramadas M, Govindaraju RS (2013) Identification of hydrologic drought triggers from hydroclimatic predictor variables. Water Resour Res 49(7):4476–4492

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology 17(22): 179–183

  • Mercado VD, Perez GC, Solomatine D, Van Lanen HA (2016) Spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological drought at catchment scale using a spatially-distributed hydrological model. Procedia Eng 154:738–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miao C, Kong D, Wu J, Duan Q (2016) Functional degradation of the water–sediment regulation scheme in the lower Yellow River: spatial and temporal analyses. Sci Total Environ 551:16–22

    Article  ADS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Motevali Bashi Naeini E, Akhoond-Ali AM, Radmanesh F, Koupai JA, Soltaninia S (2021) Comparison of the calculated drought return periods using tri-variate and bivariate copula functions under climate change condition. Water Resour Manage 35(14):4855–4875

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nalbantis I, Tsakiris G (2009) Assessment of hydrological drought revisited. Water Resour Manage 23(5):881–897

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oh DH, Patton AJ (2016) High-dimensional copula-based distributions with mixed frequency data. J Econ 193(2):349–366

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Sadegh M, Ragno E, AghaKouchak A (2017) Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT): describing dependence and underlying uncertainty using a Bayesian framework. Water Resour Res 53(6):5166–5183

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Sadeghipour J, Dracup JA (1985) Regional frequency analysis of hydrologic multiyear droughts. J Am Water Resour Assoc 21(3):481–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiau JT, Modarres R (2009) Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran. Meteorol Appl 16(4):481–489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla S, Wood AW (2008) Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys Res Lett 35(2):1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Nikbakht J, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2013) Hydrological drought assessment in Northwestern Iran based on streamflow drought index (SDI). Water Resour Manage 27(1):137–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tosunoğlu F, Onof C (2017) Joint modelling of drought characteristics derived from historical and synthetic rainfalls: application of generalized linear models and copulas. J Hydrol Region Stud 14:167–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Loon AF, Laaha G (2015) Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics. J Hydrol 526:3–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano SM, López-Moreno JI, Beguería S, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Azorin-Molina C, Morán-Tejeda E (2012) Accurate computation of a streamflow drought index. J Hydrol Eng 17:318–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wada Y, Van Beek LP, Wanders N, Bierkens MF (2013) Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide. Environ Res Lett 8(3):34–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang HJ, Zuo QT, Luo ZL (2017a) Runoff evolution characteristics of a typical station in Shayinghe River basin and attribution analysis. South-to-North Water Trans Water Sci Technol 15(5):36–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Zhang Y, Feng X, Feng Y, Xue Y, Pan N (2017b) Analysis and application of drought characteristics based on run theory and Copula function. Trans Chin Soc Agric Eng 33(10):206–214

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang F, Wang Z, Yang H, Di D, Zhao Y, Liang Q, Hussain Z (2020) Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological drought and its relationships with meteorological drought in the Yellow River basin. Chin J Hydrol 584:124751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, Chen X, Yao H, Gao L, Chen Y, Liu M (2017) Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and impact of a large reservoir. J Hydrol 551:495–507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, Miao C, Tang X, Duan Q, He X (2018) A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, China. Global Planet Change 161:53–65

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Xu K, Yang D, Xu X, Lei H (2015) Copula based drought frequency analysis considering the spatio-temporal variability in Southwest China. J Hydrol 527:630–640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang T, Tao Y, Li J, Zhu Q, Su L, He X, Zhang X (2018) Multi-criterion model ensemble of CMIP5 surface air temperature over China. Theoret Appl Climatol 132(3):1057–1072

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Zargar A, Sadiq R, Naser B, Khan FI (2011) A review of drought indices. Environ Rev 19:333–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao P, Lü H, Fu G, Zhu Y, Su J, Wang J (2017) Uncertainty of hydrological drought characteristics with copula functions and probability distributions: a case study of Weihe River. China Water 9(5):334

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This study was funded by key research and development and promotion of special projects (science and technology) of Henan Province (232102320026, 232102320032), the Science and Technology Project on Water Conservancy of Henan Province (GG202026, GG202022), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.51509222 and 51909091).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China

    Rong Gan, Shuqian Gu & Jinqiang Lu

  2. China Geological Environmental Monitoring Institute, Beijing, China

    Xiaoxia Tong

  3. Henan Institute of Geological Survey, Zhengzhou, China

    Hui Tang

Authors
  1. Rong Gan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Shuqian Gu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xiaoxia Tong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jinqiang Lu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Hui Tang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by RG, SG and JL, and then, it was involved in planning and supervised by XT and HT. The first draft of the manuscript was written by SG, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shuqian Gu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors have no relevant financial or nonfinancial interests to disclose.

Ethics approval

Not applicable, because this article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

There is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gan, R., Gu, S., Tong, X. et al. A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought in the Shaying River Basin, China. Nat Hazards 120, 2233–2253 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06179-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06179-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation